Capital Share, Consumption Volatility and Long-run Redistribution Risks

Capital return variability is a macroeconomic factor that exhibits significant explanatory power of long-run equity prices. In short-run, capital share risks create strong volatility effects on equity premium, as redistributive shocks that shift the share of income between the wealthy and the poor are not persistent. In long-run, capital return variability is positively correlated to stockholder consumption growth prospects and captures the long-term wealth redistribution trend. Exposure to capital return variability risks generates over a half of cross-sectional equity return variations

Three essays on asset pricing studies

Traditional consumption-based asset pricing models generally treat the aggregate stock market as a claim to aggregate consumption. However, according to empirical evidence, the majority of households consume primary out of wages and live with no capital gains from risky investments, this implies potential omitted stock market systematic risk sources beyond aggregate consumption. Therefore, this thesis contributes to investigating alternative pricing instruments other than aggregate consumption growth to capture omitted stock market systematic risks in the traditional consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CAPM). This thesis constructs three asset pricing models for wealth redistribution risks, asset pricing effects of heterogeneous beliefs among wealth classes, and financial stress risks. A new market systematic risk dimension is uncovered in each model and then tested using U.S. stock market data. This thesis firstly incorporates the elevated stockholder consumption volatility into the long-run risk framework to account for wealth redistribution risks. The capital variability factor (CRV) is developed to capture the accumulated short-run volatility effects of wealth redistributive shocks. Secondly, this thesis derives the analytical solution of stockholder consumption growth to account for stockholder consumption risks using a robustness control approach. The stockholder consumption share factor (SCS) is constructed to portray the stockholder consumption dynamics and affords high asset pricing. Finally, this thesis utilises the long-run risk framework to factor in that financial stress contributes to the convexity of the price-dividend ratio and, therefore, serves systematic risks. The financial stress factor (FS) is developed to explain the cross-sectional return variations of stocks with highly subjective valuations and are difficult to arbitrage. This thesis contributes to the field in multiple dimensions. This thesis attempts to introduce economic variables into data-driven models, therefore shedding light on the impact of limited participation of households in the stock market for future research. Also, new market systematic risks are uncovered and counterpart asset pricing factors are constructed. These findings are important to policymakers as financial systems are especially vulnerable to systemic risk that cannot be hedged

Alcohol consumption among adults with a cancer diagnosis in the All of Us Research Program

IMPORTANCE: Alcohol consumption is associated with adverse oncologic and treatment outcomes among individuals with a diagnosis of cancer. As a key modifiable behavioral factor, alcohol consumption patterns among cancer survivors, especially during treatment, remain underexplored in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively characterize alcohol consumption patterns among US cancer survivors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used data from May 6, 2018, to January 1, 2022, from the National Institutes of Health All of Us Research Program, a diverse US cohort with electronic health record (EHR) linkage, and included 15 199 participants who reported a cancer diagnosis and 1839 patients among a subset with EHR data who underwent treatment within the past year of the baseline survey. Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2022, to January 31, 2023. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Prevalence of current drinking and of risky drinking behaviors, including exceeding moderate drinking (\u3e2 drinks on a typical drinking day), binge drinking (≥6 drinks on 1 occasion), and hazardous drinking (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption [AUDIT-C] score ≥3 for women or ≥4 for men). RESULTS: This study included 15 199 adults (mean [SD] age at baseline, 63.1 [13.0] years; 9508 women [62.6%]) with a cancer diagnosis. Overall, 11 815 cancer survivors (77.7%) were current drinkers. Among current drinkers, 1541 (13.0%) exceeded moderate drinking, 2812 (23.8%) reported binge drinking, and 4527 (38.3%) engaged in hazardous drinking. After multivariable adjustment, survivors who were younger than 65 years, men, or of Hispanic ethnicity or who received a diagnosis before 18 years of age or ever smoked were more likely to exceed moderate drinking (aged \u3c50 years: odds ratio [OR], 2.90 [95% CI, 2.41-3.48]; aged 50-64 years: OR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.58-2.15]; men: OR, 2.38 [95% CI, 2.09-2.72]; Hispanic ethnicity: OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.04-1.64]; aged \u3c18 years at diagnosis: OR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.04-2.24]; former smokers: OR, 2.46 [95% CI, 2.16-2.79]; current smokers: OR, 4.14 [95% CI, 3.40-5.04]) or binge drink (aged \u3c50 years: OR, 4.46 [95% CI, 3.85-5.15]; aged 50-64 years: OR, 2.15 [95% CI, 1.90-2.43]; men: OR, 2.10 [95% CI, 1.89-2.34]; Hispanic ethnicity: OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.09-1.58]; aged \u3c18 years at diagnosis: OR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.24-2.35]; former smokers: OR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.53-1.87]; current smokers: OR, 2.27 [95% CI, 1.91-2.71]). Survivors with cancer diagnosed before 18 years of age or who ever smoked were more likely to be hazardous drinkers (aged \u3c18 years at diagnosis: OR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.11-2.08]; former smokers: OR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.68-1.99]; current smokers: OR, 2.13 [95% CI, 1.79-2.53]). Of 1839 survivors receiving treatment as captured in the EHR, 1405 (76.4%) were current drinkers, and among these, 170 (12.1%) exceeded moderate drinking, 329 (23.4%) reported binge drinking, and 540 (38.4%) engaged in hazardous drinking, with similar prevalence across different types of cancer treatment. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cross-sectional study of a diverse US cohort suggests that alcohol consumption and risky drinking behaviors were common among cancer survivors, even among individuals receiving treatment. Given the adverse treatment and oncologic outcomes associated with alcohol consumption, additional research and implementation studies are critical in addressing this emerging concern among cancer survivors

Asset Prices and Capital Share Risks: Theory and Evidence

An asset pricing model using long-run capital share growth risk has recently been found to successfully explain U.S. stock returns. Our paper adopts a recursive preference utility framework to derive an heterogeneous asset pricing model with capital share risks.While modeling capital share risks, we account for the elevated consumption volatility of high income stockholders. Capital risks have strong volatility effects in our recursive asset pricing model. Empirical evidence is presented in which capital share growth is also a source of risk for stock return volatility. We uncover contrasting unconditional and conditional asset pricing evidence for capital share risks

Antioxidant Capacity and Proanthocyanidin Composition of the Bark of Metasequoia glyptostroboides

Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu et Cheng is the only living species in the genus Metasequoia Miki ex Hu et Cheng (Taxodiaceae), which is well known as a “living fossil” species. In the Chinese folk medicine, the leaves and bark of M. glyptostroboides are used as antimicrobic, analgesic, and anti-inflammatory drug for dermatic diseases. This study is the first to report the free radical scavenging capacity, antioxidant activity, and proanthocyanidin composition of the bark of M. glyptostroboides. We observed total of six extracts and fractions, which were easily obtained by water-ethanol extraction and followed by a further separation with D101 resin column chromatography, had significant DPPH radical, superoxide anion radical, and hydroxyl radical scavenging capacity, total antioxidative capacity (T-AOC), lipid peroxidation inhibitory activity, and metal ions chelating capacity. The fraction MGEB, which was obtained by 60% ethanol extraction and followed by a further separation with D101 resin column chromatograph, possessed the highest proanthocyanidin content and the highest free radical scavenging and antioxidant activities. Furthermore, MGEB could significantly protect against CCl4 induced acute liver injury through inhibition of oxidative stress in mice. In addition, ten proanthocyanidins were isolated from MGEB, and six of them were firstly reported from this plant

Circulating markers of microbial translocation and host response to bacteria with risk of colorectal cancer: A prospective, nested case-control study in men

BACKGROUND: Gut microbial dysbiosis contributes to colorectal cancer (CRC) pathogenesis, possibly mediated in part by increased intestinal permeability to endotoxin lipopolysaccharide (LPS), microbial translocation, and subsequent endotoxemia and inflammation. However, epidemiologic evidence linking circulating markers of microbial translocation with CRC risk is limited. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, nested case-control study of 261 incident CRC cases and 261 controls (matched on age and time of blood draw) among 18,159 men with pre-diagnostic blood specimens in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1993-2009). We examined three complementary markers of microbial translocation and host response to bacteria, including LPS-binding protein (LBP), soluble CD14 (sCD14), and endotoxincore antibody (EndoCAb) immunoglobulin M (IgM), with subsequent risk of CRC. Unconditional logistic regressions were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). FINDINGS: Pre-diagnostic circulating levels of sCD14 were associated with a higher risk of incident CRC. Compared to men in the lowest quartile, the multivariable OR was 1.90 (95% CI, 1.13-3.22) for men in the highest quartile (OR INTERPRETATION: Microbial translocation and host response to bacteria, as reflected by sCD14, is associated with risk of incident CRC in men. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health

Evaluation of birth by cesarean delivery and development of early-onset colorectal cancer

IMPORTANCE: The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC), diagnosed younger than 50 years of age, has increased worldwide. Gut dysbiosis throughout the life course is hypothesized as a leading mechanism, yet epidemiologic data are limited. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively examine the association between birth by cesarean delivery and early-onset CRC among offspring. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this population-based, nationwide case-control study in Sweden, adults diagnosed with CRC between 18 and 49 years of age from 1991 to 2017 were identified through the Epidemiology Strengthened by Histopathology Reports in Sweden (ESPRESSO) cohort. Up to 5 general population control individuals without CRC were matched with each case on age, sex, calendar year, and county of residence. Pathology-confirmed end points were linked with the Swedish Medical Birth Register and other national registers. Analyses were conducted from March 2022 through March 2023. EXPOSURE: Birth by cesarean delivery. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was development of early-onset CRC in the overall population and by sex. RESULTS: We identified 564 case patients with incident early-onset CRC (mean [SD] age, 32.9 [6.2] years; 284 [50.4%] male) and 2180 matched controls (mean [SD] age, 32.7 [6.3] years; 1104 [50.6%] male). Compared with vaginal delivery, birth by cesarean delivery was not associated with early-onset CRC in the overall population (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.28; 95% CI, 0.91-1.79) after multivariable adjustment for matching and maternal and pregnancy-related factors. A positive association was found for females (aOR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.01-2.60), but there was no association for males (aOR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.64-1.72). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this nationwide, population-based case-control study, birth by cesarean delivery was not associated with early-onset CRC compared with birth by vaginal delivery in the overall population in Sweden. However, females born by cesarean delivery had greater odds of early-onset CRC compared with individuals born through vaginal delivery. This finding suggests that early-life gut dysbiosis may contribute to early-onset CRC in females

Risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and associations with gastrointestinal cancers

Metabolic syndrome may contribute to the rising incidence of multiple gastrointestinal (GI) cancers in recent birth cohorts. However, other than hepatocellular carcinoma, the association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and risk of non-liver GI cancers is unexplored. We prospectively examined the associations of NAFLD risk with GI cancers among 319,290 participants in the UK Biobank (2006-2019). Baseline risk for NAFLD was estimated using the Dallas Steatosis Index, a validated prediction tool. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) according to NAFLD risk categories: low (\u3c20%), intermediate (20%-49%), and high (≥50%). We also examined the associations by age of cancer diagnosis (earlier onset [\u3c60] vs. ≥60). A total of 273 incident liver cancer and 4789 non-liver GI cancer cases were diagnosed. Compared with individuals at low risk for NAFLD, those at high risk had 2.41-fold risk of liver cancer (RR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.73-3.35) and 23% increased risk of non-liver GI cancers (RR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.14-1.32) (all

Common characteristics of feedstock stage in life cycle assessments of agricultural residue-based biofuels

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordIn this study, we conducted life cycle assessments (LCAs) for fuels based on different types of agricultural residues and determined the characteristics common to all LCAs. Each fuel type required specific conversion technology during the feedstock stage, particularly during the production and collection processes. We divided the field-to-fuel life cycle into five high-level and relatively independent sub-stages: production of agricultural residues, collection of agricultural residues, conversion of agricultural residues to biofuels, biofuel distribution, and biofuel utilization. We then illustrated the common characteristics during the feedstock stage for the first two field-to-fuel life cycle sub-stages: production and collection of agricultural residues. Agricultural residues-to-grain weight and price ratios and multifactorial LCA allocations were summarized for the production stage. In addition, the energy use availability coefficient, collection radius, and emissions were determined for each fuel type during the collection stage. System boundaries and benefits of direct emissions reduction during the feedstock stage were also discussed. Our results provide guidance for future LCA studies on agricultural residue-based biofuels.National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaChinese Academy of EngineeringHenan Province Talent ProjectHenan Academy of Sciences Research Project