An algorithm to assess methodological quality of nutrition and mortality cross-sectional surveys: development and application to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan

Background Nutrition and mortality surveys are the main tools whereby evidence on the health status of populations affected by disasters and armed conflict is quantified and monitored over time. Several reviews have consistently revealed a lack of rigor in many surveys. We describe an algorithm for analyzing nutritional and mortality survey reports to identify a comprehensive range of errors that may result in sampling, response, or measurement biases and score quality. We apply the algorithm to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. Methods We developed an algorithm based on internationally agreed upon methods and best practices. Penalties are attributed for a list of errors, and an overall score is built from the summation of penalties accrued by the survey as a whole. To test the algorithm reproducibility, it was independently applied by three raters on 30 randomly selected survey reports. The algorithm was further applied to more than 100 surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. Results The Intra Class Correlation coefficient was 0.79 for mortality surveys and 0.78 for nutrition surveys. The overall median quality score and range of about 100 surveys conducted in Darfur were 0.60 (0.12-0.93) and 0.675 (0.23-0.86) for mortality and nutrition surveys, respectively. They varied between the organizations conducting the surveys, with no major trend over time. Conclusion Our study suggests that it is possible to systematically assess quality of surveys and reveals considerable problems with the quality of nutritional and particularly mortality surveys conducted in the Darfur crisis.BioMed Central Open acces

Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016–18: an analysis of surveillance data

Summary: Background: In war-torn Yemen, reports of confirmed cholera started in late September, 2016. The disease continues to plague Yemen today in what has become the largest documented cholera epidemic of modern times. We aimed to describe the key epidemiological features of this epidemic, including the drivers of cholera transmission during the outbreak. Methods: The Yemen Health Authorities set up a national cholera surveillance system to collect information on suspected cholera cases presenting at health facilities. Individual variables included symptom onset date, age, severity of dehydration, and rapid diagnostic test result. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by culture, and a subset of samples had additional phenotypic and genotypic analysis. We first conducted descriptive analyses at national and governorate levels. We divided the epidemic into three time periods: the first wave (Sept 28, 2016, to April 23, 2017), the increasing phase of the second wave (April 24, 2017, to July 2, 2017), and the decreasing phase of the second wave (July 3, 2017, to March 12, 2018). We reconstructed the changes in cholera transmission over time by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, Rt. Finally, we estimated the association between rainfall and the daily cholera incidence during the increasing phase of the second epidemic wave by fitting a spatiotemporal regression model. Findings: From Sept 28, 2016, to March 12, 2018, 1 103 683 suspected cholera cases (attack rate 3·69%) and 2385 deaths (case fatality risk 0·22%) were reported countrywide. The epidemic consisted of two distinct waves with a surge in transmission in May, 2017, corresponding to a median Rt of more than 2 in 13 of 23 governorates. Microbiological analyses suggested that the same Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa strain circulated in both waves. We found a positive, non-linear, association between weekly rainfall and suspected cholera incidence in the following 10 days; the relative risk of cholera after a weekly rainfall of 25 mm was 1·42 (95% CI 1·31–1·55) compared with a week without rain. Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that the small first cholera epidemic wave seeded cholera across Yemen during the dry season. When the rains returned in April, 2017, they triggered widespread cholera transmission that led to the large second wave. These results suggest that cholera could resurge during the ongoing 2018 rainy season if transmission remains active. Therefore, health authorities and partners should immediately enhance current control efforts to mitigate the risk of a new cholera epidemic wave in Yemen. Funding: Health Authorities of Yemen, WHO, and Médecins Sans Frontières

Efficacy of chloroquine and sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Koumantou, Mali.

We report the results of an in vivo antimalarial efficacy study with chloroquine (CQ) and sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) conducted between 2003 and 2004 in Koumantou, southern Mali. A total of 244 children were included in the study; 210 children were followed-up for 28 days according to WHO recommendations, with PCR genotyping to distinguish late recrudescence from re-infection. Global failure proportions at Day 14, without taking into account re-infections, were 44.2% (95% CI 34.9-53.5%) in the CQ group and 2.0% (95% CI 0.0-4.8%) in the SP group. PCR-adjusted failure proportions at Day 28 were even higher in the CQ group (90.5% (95/105), 95% CI 84.8-96.2%) and relatively low in the SP group (7.0% (7/100), 95% CI 1.9-12.1%). These results show that CQ is no longer efficacious in Koumantou. The use of SP in monotherapy is likely to compromise its efficacy. We recommend the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy as first-line treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Koumantou

The cost of insecurity: from flare-up to control of a major Ebola virus disease hotspot during the outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019.

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo is facing unprecedented levels of insecurity and violence. We evaluate the likely impact in terms of added transmissibility and cases of major security incidents in the Butembo coordination hub. We also show that despite this additional burden, an adapted response strategy involving enlarged ring vaccination around clusters of cases and enhanced community engagement managed to bring this main hotspot under control