Improved statistical methods for estimating infestation rates in quarantine research when hosts are naturally infested

Trading partners often require phytosanitary or quarantine treatments for fresh horticultural produce to ensure no economically important pest species are moved with the imported product. When developing such treatments, it is essential that the level of treatment efficacy can be determined. This is often based on the mortality of the total number of target pests exposed to treatment, but in naturally infested products this number is not always known. In such cases, the infestation rate and subsequently an estimate of the number of pests are obtained directly from a set of untreated control samples of the host product. The International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) Secretariat has provided 2 formulas for these situations that place an interval around the point estimate obtained from the control samples to obtain an estimate of the infestation rate. However, these formulas do not allow a confidence level to be assigned to the estimate, and there are concerns with the assumptions regarding the distribution and the measure of variability used in the formulas. In this article, we propose 2 alternative formulas. We propose that the lower one-sided confidence limit should be applied to all infestation datasets that are approximately normally distributed. As infestation data are sometimes skewed, it is proposed the lower one-sided modified Cox confidence limit is applied to data approximately log-normal distributed. These well-recognized formulas are compared to the formulas recommended by the IPPC and applied to 3 datasets involving natural infestation

Continuous combined microwave and hot air treatment of apples for fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni and B. jarvisi) disinfestation

Apples at 24 ± 2 °C were heated in a pilot scale hot air assisted (40 °C) continuous pentagonal microwave system, to evaluate the effectiveness of this treatment on insect mortality (variety Mutsu) and fruit quality (variety Granny Smith). An average temperature of 53.4 ± 1.3 °C at core, bottom and flesh of the apple was recorded at the end of the treatment. One hundred percent mortality of the most tolerant stage of Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni, Froggatt) and Jarvis's fruit fly (Bactrocera jarvisi, Tryon), were observed when the Mortality value (M52, equivalent time of isothermal treatment at 52 °C) at the slowest heating point applicable for each experiment was ≥ 50 min and ≥ 37 min, respectively. Results showed that microwave heat treatment is effective for insect disinfestation without any adverse impact on total soluble solids, flesh or peel firmness of the treated apples. The treated apples recorded a significantly higher pH and lower ion leakage than the untreated apples after 3 or 4 weeks. Therefore, the microwave heat treatment has the potential to be developed as an alternative chemical free quarantine treatment against economically significant insect pests. Industrial relevance Hot air assisted microwave heating of fruits and vegetables, is more cost effective compared to vapour heat treatment and ionising radiation for disinfestation of insects. Microwave treatment is environmentally friendly compared to fumigation and chemical treatments. Hot air assisted microwave disinfestation can be performed at farms or centralised pack houses since the capital cost would be comparatively lower than vapour heat or ionising radiation treatments

Family and Neighbourhood Socioeconomic Inequalities in Childhood Trajectories of BMI and Overweight: Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

Background:Socioeconomic inequalities in longitudinal patterning of childhood overweight could cause marked differentials in total burden by adulthood. This study aims to determine timing and strength of the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and children's body mass index (BMI) in the pre- and primary school years, and to examine socioeconomic differences in overweight trajectories across childhood.Methods:Participants were 4949 children from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. BMI was measured at four biennial waves starting at age 4-5 years in 2004. Developmental trajectories of childhood overweight were identified with latent class analyses. Composite variables of family and neighbourhood SES were used.Results:Socioeconomic differences in mean BMI z-scores already present at age 4-5 more than doubled by age 10-11 years, reflecting decreasing mean BMI among advantaged rather than increasing means among disadvantaged children. Latent class analysis identified children with 'stable normal weight' (68%), and with 'persistent' (15%), 'late-onset' (14%), and 'resolving' overweight (3%). Risks of persistent and late-onset childhood overweight were highest among low SES families (e.g. most disadvantaged quintile: ORpersistent= 2.51, 95%CI: 1.83-3.43), and only partly explained by birth weight and parental overweight. Relationships with neighbourhood SES were weaker and attenuated fully on adjustment for family SES. No socioeconomic gradient was observed for resolving overweight.Conclusions:Childhood has become the critical period when socioeconomic inequalities in overweight emerge and strengthen. Although targeting disadvantaged children with early overweight must be a top priority, the presence of childhood overweight even among less-disadvantaged families suggests only whole-society approaches will eliminate overweight-associated morbidity

Metastatic potential of an aneurysmal bone cyst

Aneurysmal bone cysts (ABCs) are benign bone tumors consisting of blood-filled cavities lined by connective tissue septa. Recently, the hypothesis that ABCs are lesions reactive to local hemodynamics has been challenged after the discovery of specific recurrent chromosomal abnormalities. Multiple cases of malignant transformation of ABC into (osteo)sarcoma have been described, as well as a number of cases of telangiectatic osteosarcoma which had been misdiagnosed as ABC. We herewith document a case of a pelvic ABC metastatic to the lung, liver, and kidneys. Diagnosis was confirmed by the presence of a break in the USP6 gene, which is pathognomonic for ABC, in a pulmonary metastasis of our patient. Sarcomatous transformation as an explanation for this behavior was ruled out by demonstrating diploid DNA content in both the pulmonary lesion and the primary tumor

Mortality Among Adults With Cancer Undergoing Chemotherapy or Immunotherapy and Infected With COVID-19

Importance: Large cohorts of patients with active cancers and COVID-19 infection are needed to provide evidence of the association of recent cancer treatment and cancer type with COVID-19 mortality. // Objective: To evaluate whether systemic anticancer treatments (SACTs), tumor subtypes, patient demographic characteristics (age and sex), and comorbidities are associated with COVID-19 mortality. // Design, Setting, and Participants: The UK Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project (UKCCMP) is a prospective cohort study conducted at 69 UK cancer hospitals among adult patients (≥18 years) with an active cancer and a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19. Patients registered from March 18 to August 1, 2020, were included in this analysis. // Exposures: SACT, tumor subtype, patient demographic characteristics (eg, age, sex, body mass index, race and ethnicity, smoking history), and comorbidities were investigated. // Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was all-cause mortality within the primary hospitalization. // Results: Overall, 2515 of 2786 patients registered during the study period were included; 1464 (58%) were men; and the median (IQR) age was 72 (62-80) years. The mortality rate was 38% (966 patients). The data suggest an association between higher mortality in patients with hematological malignant neoplasms irrespective of recent SACT, particularly in those with acute leukemias or myelodysplastic syndrome (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.30-3.60) and myeloma or plasmacytoma (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.04-2.26). Lung cancer was also significantly associated with higher COVID-19–related mortality (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.11-2.25). No association between higher mortality and receiving chemotherapy in the 4 weeks before COVID-19 diagnosis was observed after correcting for the crucial confounders of age, sex, and comorbidities. An association between lower mortality and receiving immunotherapy in the 4 weeks before COVID-19 diagnosis was observed (immunotherapy vs no cancer therapy: OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.86). // Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study of patients with active cancer suggest that recent SACT is not associated with inferior outcomes from COVID-19 infection. This has relevance for the care of patients with cancer requiring treatment, particularly in countries experiencing an increase in COVID-19 case numbers. Important differences in outcomes among patients with hematological and lung cancers were observed

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570