Predictive models of choroidal neovascularization and geographic atrophy incidence applied to clinical trial design.

PURPOSE: To develop comprehensive predictive models for choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and geographic atrophy (GA) incidence within 3 years that can be applied realistically to clinical practice. DESIGN: Retrospective evaluation of data from a longitudinal study to develop and validate predictive models of CNV and GA. METHODS: The predictive performance of clinical, environmental, demographic, and genetic risk factors was explored in regression models, using data from both eyes of 2011 subjects from the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). The performance of predictive models was compared using 10-fold cross-validated receiver operating characteristic curves in the training data, followed by comparisons in an independent validation dataset (1410 AREDS subjects). Bayesian trial simulations were used to compare the usefulness of predictive models to screen patients for inclusion in prevention clinical trials. RESULTS: Logistic regression models that included clinical, demographic, and environmental factors had better predictive performance for 3-year CNV and GA incidence (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 and 0.89, respectively), compared with simple clinical criteria (AREDS simplified severity scale). Although genetic markers were associated significantly with 3-year CNV (CFH: Y402H; ARMS2: A69S) and GA incidence (CFH: Y402H), the inclusion of genetic factors in the models provided only marginal improvements in predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The logistic regression models combine good predictive performance with greater flexibility to optimize clinical trial design compared with simple clinical models (AREDS simplified severity scale). The benefit of including genetic factors to screen patients for recruitment to CNV prevention studies is marginal and is dependent on individual clinical trial economics

Dietary iron enhances colonic inflammation and IL-6/IL-11-Stat3 signaling promoting colonic tumor development in mice

Chronic intestinal inflammation and high dietary iron are associated with colorectal cancer development. The role of Stat3 activation in iron-induced colonic inflammation and tumorigenesis was investigated in a mouse model of inflammation-associated colorectal cancer. Mice, fed either an iron-supplemented or control diet, were treated with azoxymethane and dextran sodium sulfate (DSS). Intestinal inflammation and tumor development were assessed by endoscopy and histology, gene expression by real-time PCR, Stat3 phosphorylation by immunoblot, cytokines by ELISA and apoptosis by TUNEL assay. Colonic inflammation was more severe in mice fed an iron-supplemented compared with a control diet one week post-DSS treatment, with enhanced colonic IL-6 and IL-11 release and Stat3 phosphorylation. Both IL-6 and ferritin, the iron storage protein, co-localized with macrophages suggesting iron may act directly on IL-6 producing-macrophages. Iron increased DSS-induced colonic epithelial cell proliferation and apoptosis consistent with enhanced mucosal damage. DSS-treated mice developed anemia that was not alleviated by dietary iron supplementation. Six weeks post-DSS treatment, iron-supplemented mice developed more and larger colonic tumors compared with control mice. Intratumoral IL-6 and IL-11 expression increased in DSS-treated mice and IL-6, and possibly IL-11, were enhanced by dietary iron. Gene expression of iron importers, divalent metal transporter 1 and transferrin receptor 1, increased and iron exporter, ferroportin, decreased in colonic tumors suggesting increased iron uptake. Dietary iron and colonic inflammation synergistically activated colonic IL-6/IL-11-Stat3 signaling promoting tumorigenesis. Oral iron therapy may be detrimental in inflammatory bowel disease since it may exacerbate colonic inflammation and increase colorectal cancer risk