Weighting factor elicitation for sustainability assessment of energy technologies

In this paper, an approach for sustainability assessment of innovative energy technologies is expanded by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to aggregate indicator results and support decision-making. One of the most important steps for MCDA is to determine weighting factors for individual indicators. Thus, a workshop was performed to elicit weighting factors for sustainability assessments of energy technologies from developers of such technologies and energy system modellers from academia. These stakeholders expressed their preferences with respect to sustainability criteria using the Simple Multi Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). A triple bottom line approach of sustainable development was used as the basis for the aggregation of indicator results. This approach is based on Life Cycle Costing, Life Cycle Assessment and social indicators. Obtained weighting factors were applied to an integrative sustainability assessment with the aggregation method Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment of Evaluations (PROMETHEE). Hydrogen-based mobility as an important technology to foster decarbonization in the transport sector is used as a case study for the application of the derived weighting factors. A conventional vehicle, powered by fossil fuel, is compared with a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) for the year 2050. Different options (pipeline, compressed gaseous hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, liquid organic hydrogen carrier) are discussed for the supply of hydrogen. The results for this weighting factor set are compared with an equal weighting scenario of the three sustainability dimensions and indicators within one sustainability dimension. The FCEV, using pipelines for hydrogen supply, came out first in the assessment as well as in all sensitivity analyses

Prospective assessment of energy technologies: a comprehensive approach for sustainability assessment

Background: A further increase in renewable energy supply is needed to substitute fossil fuels and combat climate change. Each energy source and respective technologies have specific techno-economic and environmental characteristics as well as social implications. This paper presents a comprehensive approach for prospective sustainability assessment of energy technologies developed within the Helmholtz Initiative “Energy System 2050” (ES2050).Methods: The “ES2050 approach” comprises environmental, economic, and social assessment. It includes established life cycle based economic and environmental indicators, and social indicators derived from a normative concept of sustainable development. The elaborated social indicators, i.e. patent growth rate, acceptance, and domestic value added, address three different socio-technical areas, i.e. innovation (patents), public perception (acceptance), and public welfare (value added).Results: The implementation of the “ES2050 approach” is presented exemplarily and different sustainability indicators and respective results are discussed based on three emerging technologies and corresponding case studies: (1) synthetic biofuels for mobility; (2) hydrogen from wind power for mobility; and (3) batteries for stationary energy storage. For synthetic biofuel, the environmental advantages over fossil gasoline are most apparent for the impact categories Climate Change and Ionizing Radiation—human health. Domestic value added accounts for 66% for synthetic biofuel compared to 13% for fossil gasoline. All hydrogen supply options can be considered to become near to economic competitiveness with fossil fuels in the long term. Survey participants regard Explosion Hazard as the most pressing concern about hydrogen fuel stations. For Li-ion batteries, the results for patent growth rate indicate that they enter their maturity phase.Conclusions: The “ES2050 approach” enables a consistent prospective sustainability assessment of (emerging) energy technologies, supporting technology developers, decision-makers in politics, industry, and society with knowledge for further evaluation, steering, and governance. The approach presented is considered rather a starting point than a blueprint for the comprehensive assessment of renewable energy technologies though, especially for the suggested social indicators, their significance and their embedding in context scenarios for prospective assessments

Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany

In order to analyse long-term transformation pathways, energy system models generally focus on economical and technical characteristics. However, these models usually do not consider sustainability aspects such as environmental impacts. In contrast, life cycle assessment enables an extensive estimate of those impacts. Due to these complementary characteristics, the combination of energy system models and life cycle assessment thus allows comprehensive environmental sustainability assessments of technically and economically feasible energy system transformation pathways. We introduce FRITS, a FRamework for the assessment of environmental Impacts of Transformation Scenarios. FRITS links bottom-up energy system models with life cycle impact assessment indicators and quantifies the environmental impacts of transformation strategies of the entire energy system (power, heat, transport) over the transition period. We apply the framework to conduct an environmental assessment of multi-sectoral energy scenarios for Germany. Here, a ‘Target’ scenario reaching 80% reduction of energy-related direct CO2 emissions is compared with a ‘Reference’ scenario describing a less ambitious transformation pathway. The results show that compared to 2015 and the ‘Reference’ scenario, the ‘Target’ scenario performs better for most life cycle impact assessment indicators. However, the impacts of resource consumption and land use increase for the ‘Target’ scenario. These impacts are mainly caused by road passenger transport and biomass conversion

Multi criteria decision analysis for prospective sustainability assessment of alternative technologies and fuels for individual motorized transport

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector is one of the biggest challenges in the German energy transition. Furthermore, sustainable development does not stop with reducing GHG emissions. Other environmental, social and economic aspects should not be neglected. Thus, here a comprehensive sustainability assessment for passenger vehicles is conducted for 2020 and 2050. The discussed options are an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) fuelled with synthetic biofuel and fossil gasoline, a battery electric vehicle (BEV) with electricity from wind power and electricity mix Germany and a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) with hydrogen from wind power. The life cycle-based assessment entails 13 environmental indicators, one economic and one social indicator. For integrated consideration of the different indicators, the MCDA method Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is chosen. For the assessment, a consistent assessment framework, i.e. background scenario and system boundaries, and a detailed modelling of vehicle production, fuel supply and vehicle use are the cornerstones. The BEV with wind power is the most sustainable option in 2020 as well as in 2050. While in 2020, the second rank is taken by the ICEV with synthetic biofuel from straw and the last rank by the FCEV, in 2050 the FCEV is the runner-up. With the help of MCDA, transparent and structured guidance for decision makers in terms of sustainability assessment of motorized transport options is provided

Comparative patent analysis for the identification of global research trends for the case of battery storage, hydrogen and bioenergy

Patent documents provide knowledge about which countries are investing in certain technologies and make it possible to identify potential innovation trends. The aim of this article is to analyze trends in patenting that might result in innovations for three energy technologies: thermochemical conversion of biomass (Bioenergy), lithium-ion battery storage, and hydrogen production by alkaline water electrolysis. Based on different patent indicators, the most active countries are compared to provide insights into the global market position of a country, particularly Germany which is used as a reference here. In line with this, a freely available patent analysis software tool was developed directly using the European Patent Office database through their Open Patent Services. The results for named technologies show that patenting activity of Germany is low in comparison to other countries such as Japan, China, and the US. Whereas the position of Germany for batteries and hydrogen is comparable, bioenergy shows different results regarding the identified countries and the number of patents found. However, a broader context beyond patenting is suggested for consideration to make robust statements about particular technology trends. The presented tool and methodology in this study can serve as a blueprint for explorative assessments in any technological domain

MCDA for sustainability assessment – insights to Helmholtz Association activities

The "MCDA for sustainability assessment – insights to Helmholtz Association activities" Working Paper aims to compile and reflect previous and on-going work within the Helmholtz Association related to MCDA, in particular, to present use cases and key methodological aspects. It has a focus on but is not limited to energy technologies and systems and is mainly based on the presentations held at the online workshop “Multi criteria decision analysis for sustainability assessment of energy technologies and systems”. The workshop was organized within the activities of the Helmholtz program ESD Topic 1 "Energy System Transformation" and took place on November 22nd, 2021

Oligometastasis in breast cancer-current status and treatment options from a radiation oncology perspective

Evidence from a few small randomized trials and retrospective cohorts mostly including various tumor entities indicates a prolongation of disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) from local ablative therapies in oligometastatic disease (OMD). However, it is still unclear which patients benefit most from this approach. We give an overview of the several aspects of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in extracranial OMD in breast cancer from a radiation oncology perspective. A PubMed search referring to this was conducted. An attempt was made to relate the therapeutic efficacy of SBRT to various prognostic factors. Data from approximately 500 breast cancer patients treated with SBRT for OMD in mostly in small cohort studies have been published, consistently indicating high local tumor control rates and favorable progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictors for a good prognosis after SBRT are favorable biological subtype (hormone receptor positive, HER2 negative), solitary metastasis, bone-only metastasis, and long metastasis-free interval. However, definitive proof that SBRT in OMD breast cancer prolongs DFS or OS is lacking, since, with the exception of one small randomized trial (n = 22 in the SBRT arm), none of the cohort studies had an adequate control group. Further studies are needed to prove the benefit of SBRT in OMD breast cancer and to define adequate selection criteria. Currently, the use of local ablative SBRT should always be discussed in a multidisciplinary tumor board

Post-neoadjuvant treatment with capecitabine and trastuzumab emtansine in breast cancer patients—sequentially, or better simultaneously?

Abstract Purpose Following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer, postoperative systemic therapy, also called post-neoadjuvant treatment, has been established in defined risk settings. We reviewed the evidence for sequencing of postoperative radiation and chemotherapy, with a focus on a capecitabine and trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1)-based regimen. Methods A systematic literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE/Web of Science database was performed. We included prospective and retrospective reports published since 2015 and provided clinical data on toxicity and effectiveness. Results Six studies were included, five of which investigated capecitabine-containing regimens. Of these, four were prospective investigations and one a retrospective matched comparative analysis. One randomized prospective trial was found for T‑DM1 and radiotherapy. In the majority of these reports, radiation-associated toxicities were not specifically addressed. Conclusion Regarding oncologic outcome, the influence of sequencing radiation therapy with maintenance capecitabine chemotherapy in the post-neoadjuvant setting is unclear. Synchronous administration of capecitabine is feasible, but reports on possible excess toxicities are partially conflicting. Dose reduction of capecitabine should be considered, especially if normofractionated radiotherapy is used. In terms of tolerance, hypofractionated schedules seem to be superior in terms of toxicity in concurrent settings. T‑DM1 can safely be administered concurrently with radiotherapy

Moderate hypofractionation remains the standard of care for whole-breast radiotherapy in breast cancer: Considerations regarding FAST and FAST-Forward

Moderate hypofractionation is the standard of care for adjuvant whole-breast radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery for breast cancer. Recently, 10-year results from the FAST and 5‑year results from the FAST-Forward trial evaluating adjuvant whole-breast radiotherapy in 5 fractions over 5 weeks or 1 week have been published. This article summarizes recent data for moderate hypofractionation and results from the FAST and FAST-Forward trial on ultra-hypofractionation. While the FAST trial was not powered for comparison of local recurrence rates, FAST-Forward demonstrated non-inferiority for two ultra-hypofractionated regimens in terms of local control. In both trials, the higher-dose experimental arms resulted in elevated rates of late toxicity. For the lower dose experimental arms of 28.5 Gy over 5 weeks and 26 Gy over 1 week, moderate or marked late effects were similar in the majority of documented items compared to the respective standard arms, but significantly worse in some subdomains. The difference between the standard arm and the 26 Gy of the FAST-Forward trial concerning moderate or marked late effects increased with longer follow-up in disadvantage of the experimental arm for most items. For now, moderate hypofractionation with 40–42.5 Gy over 15–16 fractions remains the standard of care for the majority of patients with breast cancer who undergo whole-breast radiotherapy without regional nodal irradiation after breast-conserving surgery