Nonstationary Teleconnection Between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic Sea Ice

Over the last 40 years observations show a teleconnection between summertime Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and September Arctic sea ice extent. However, the short satellite observation record has made it difficult to further examine this relationship. Here, we use 30 fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ability of GCMs to simulate this teleconnection and analyze its stationarity over longer timescales. GCMs can temporarily simulate the teleconnection in continuous 40‐year segments but not over longer, centennial timescales. Each GCM exhibits considerable teleconnection variability on multidecadal timescales. Further analysis shows that the teleconnection depends on an equally nonstationary atmospheric bridge from the subequatorial Pacific Ocean to the upper Arctic troposphere. These findings indicate that the modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by subequatorial Pacific Ocean variability is not fixed in time, undermining the assumption of teleconnection stationarity as defined by the satellite record

Nonstationary Teleconnection Between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic Sea Ice

Over the last 40 years observations show a teleconnection between summertime Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and September Arctic sea ice extent. However, the short satellite observation record has made it difficult to further examine this relationship. Here, we use 30 fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ability of GCMs to simulate this teleconnection and analyze its stationarity over longer timescales. GCMs can temporarily simulate the teleconnection in continuous 40‐year segments but not over longer, centennial timescales. Each GCM exhibits considerable teleconnection variability on multidecadal timescales. Further analysis shows that the teleconnection depends on an equally nonstationary atmospheric bridge from the subequatorial Pacific Ocean to the upper Arctic troposphere. These findings indicate that the modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by subequatorial Pacific Ocean variability is not fixed in time, undermining the assumption of teleconnection stationarity as defined by the satellite record

A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions

A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions

An examination of business occupier relocation decision making : distinguishing small and large firm behaviour

This paper explores how business occupiers decide whether and where to relocate. It captures the experience and behaviour of a range of sizes and types of business occupier and subjects their decision-making processes to detailed scrutiny. A linear three-stage decision model is used to sequence and structure interviews with individuals who have intimate involvement with the relocation of 28 firms and organizations in Tyne and Wear, in the north-east of England. The 'constant comparative' method is used to analyse the interview data, from which emerges 18 key concepts, comprising 51 characteristic components. Using an axial approach, these are organized into 10 cross-cutting themes that represent the main areas of consideration or influence on the thinking of the people involved in determining whether a firm or organization should relocate and, if so, where to. The resulting analysis finds that organizations adopt varying degrees of sophistication when making relocation decisions; small firms are more inclined to make decisions based on constrained information; larger organizations adopt a more complex approach. Regardless of firm size, key individuals exert considerable influence over the decision-making process and its outcome

Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss

Identification of Behaviour in Freely Moving Dogs (Canis familiaris) Using Inertial Sensors

Monitoring and describing the physical movements and body postures of animals is one of the most fundamental tasks of ethology. The more precise the observations are the more sophisticated the interpretations can be about the biology of a certain individual or species. Animal-borne data loggers have recently contributed much to the collection of motion-data from individuals, however, the problem of translating these measurements to distinct behavioural categories to create an ethogram is not overcome yet. The objective of the present study was to develop a “behaviour tracker”: a system composed of a multiple sensor data-logger device (with a tri-axial accelerometer and a tri-axial gyroscope) and a supervised learning algorithm as means of automated identification of the behaviour of freely moving dogs. We collected parallel sensor measurements and video recordings of each of our subjects (Belgian Malinois, N=12; Labrador Retrievers, N=12) that were guided through a predetermined series of standard activities. Seven behavioural categories (lay, sit, stand, walk, trot, gallop, canter) were pre-defined and each video recording was tagged accordingly. Evaluation of the measurements was performed by support vector machine (SVM) classification. During the analysis we used different combinations of independent measurements for training and validation (belonging to the same or different individuals or using different training data size) to determine the robustness of the application. We reached an overall accuracy of above 90% perfect identification of all the defined seven categories of behaviour when both training and validation data belonged to the same individual, and over 80% perfect recognition rate using a generalized training data set of multiple subjects. Our results indicate that the present method provides a good model for an easily applicable, fast, automatic behaviour classification system that can be trained with arbitrary motion patterns and potentially be applied to a wide range of species and situations