Statistical modelling to predict corporate default for Brazilian companies in the context of Basel II using a new set of financial ratios

This paper deals with statistical modelling to predict failure of Brazilian companies in the light of the Basel II definition of default using a new set of explanatory variables. A rearrangement in the official format of the Balance Sheet is put forward. From this rearrangement a framework of complementary non-conventional ratios is proposed. Initially, a model using 22 traditional ratios is constructed. Problems associated with multicollinearity were found in this model. Adding a group of 6 non-conventional ratios alongside traditional ratios improves the model substantially. The main findings in this study are: (a) logistic regression performs well in the context of Basel II, yielding a sound model applicable in the decision making process; (b) the complementary list of financial ratios plays a critical role in the model proposed; (c) the variables selected in the model show that when current assets and current liabilities are split into two sub-groups - financial and operational - they are more effective in explaining default than the traditional ratios associated with liquidity; and (d) those variables also indicate that high interest rates in Brazil adversely affect the performance of those companies which have a higher dependency on borrowing

A tri-dimensional approach for auditing brand loyalty

Over the past twenty years brand loyalty has been an important topic for both marketing practitioners and academics. While practitioners have produced proprietary brand loyalty audit models, there has been little academic research to make transparent the methodology that underpins these audits and to enable practitioners to understand, develop and conduct their own audits. In this paper, we propose a framework for a brand loyalty audit that uses a tri-dimensional approach to brand loyalty, which includes behavioural loyalty and the two components of attitudinal loyalty: emotional and cognitive loyalty. In allowing for different levels and intensity of brand loyalty, this tri-dimensional approach is important from a managerial perspective. It means that loyalty strategies that arise from a brand audit can be made more effective by targeting the market segments that demonstrate the most appropriate combination of brand loyalty components. We propose a matrix with three dimensions (emotional, cognitive and behavioural loyalty) and two levels (high and low loyalty) to facilitate a brand loyalty audit. To demonstrate this matrix, we use the example of financial services, in particular a rewards-based credit card

Effects of ErbB2 overexpression on the proteome and ErbB ligand-specific phosphosignalling in mammary luminal epithelial cells

Most breast cancers arise from luminal epithelial cells and 25-30% of these tumours overexpress the ErbB2/HER2 receptor which correlates with disease progression and poor prognosis. The mechanisms of ErbB2 signalling and the effects of its overexpression are not fully understood. Herein, SILAC expression profiling and phosphopeptide enrichment of a relevant, non-transformed, immortalized human mammary luminal epithelial cell model were used to profile ErbB2-dependent differences in protein expression and phosphorylation events triggered via EGFR (EGF treatment) and ErbB3 (HRG1β treatment) in the context of ErbB2 overexpression. Bioinformatics analysis was used to infer changes in cellular processes and signalling events. We demonstrate the complexity of the responses to oncogene expression and growth factor signalling and identify protein changes relevant to ErbB2-dependent altered cellular phenotype, in particular cell cycle progression and hyper-proliferation, reduced adhesion and enhanced motility. Moreover, we define a novel mechanism by which ErbB signalling suppresses basal interferon signalling that would promote the survival and proliferation of mammary luminal epithelial cells. Numerous novel sites of growth factor-regulated phosphorylation were identified that were enhanced by ErbB2 overexpression and we putatively link these to altered cell behaviour and also highlight the importance of performing parallel protein expression profiling alongside phosphoproteomic analysis

Supreme Court Voting Behavior: 1995 Term

This Article, the eleventh in a series, attempts through statistical analysis to determine whether individual Justices on the United States Supreme Court (as well as the Court as a whole) voted more conservatively, more liberally, or about the same in the 1995 Terms as compared with past terms. The 1995 figures reveal a Court in ideological tension. Although some statistical measures suggest conservatism on the High Bench, there are notable contrary liberal indicators as well (principally in the areas of state criminal cases, federal jurisdiction, and First Amendment claims). Indeed, regression analysis demonstrates that the 1995 liberal movement in state criminal cases by the Court\u27s three most conservative members (the Chief Justice and Justices Scalia and Thomas) is statistically significant. Perhaps the most important (although least surprising) statistics are those that demonstrate the Court\u27s identifiable division into two wings: a liberal coalition composed of Justices Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg and Breyer, and a conservative bloc composed of the Chief Justice and Justices Scalia and Thomas. Justices Kennedy and O\u27Connor remain between these two factions, casting the deciding votes in the most hotly contested cases. The voting behavior of these moderate swing voters has caused the Court to vacillate markedly between liberal and conservative outcomes during the past four Terms. This ideological dynamic is likely to be altered only by resignations and replacements on the Court

Supreme Court Voting Behavior: 2007 Term

This Study, the twenty-second in a series, tabulates and analyzes the voting behavior of the United States Supreme Court during the 2007 Term. The analysis is designed to measure whether individual Justices and the Court as a whole are voting more conservatively, more liberally, or about the same when compared with past Terms. This Study attempts to remove this subjectivity by applying the following consistent classification scheme to ten categories of cases across time: conservative votes are those that favor an assertion of governmental power, while liberal votes are those that favor a claim of individual liberty. The voting patterns tabulated by the 2007 Study reveal (as should be expected) a somewhat unsettled Court. The areas most indicative of bias diverged in opposite directions. Most surprising has been the voting behavior of the more liberal Justices in a more conservative bent. Justices Ginsburg and Breyer voted conservatively in civil-state cases-an area that is the second most indicative of ideological bias on the Court. On Table 2, Justices Souter, Ginsburg, and Breyer voted toward the conservative side of the liberal bloc. Table 3, the most indicative of bias, revealed a decidedly conservative leaning. When considered as a whole, however, the ideological posture of the Court appears to lean liberally. As for individual voting behavior, some of the Justices are voting somewhat uncharacteristically. For example, factor analysis highlights Tables 1 and 3, civil-state and criminal-state cases, as the most indicative of bias. Those Tables, however, shake up the classic five/four, conservative/liberal divide on the Court. Interestingly, Justices Ginsburg and Breyer cast the majority of their votes with the government on Table 1-the second most reliable indicator of bias this Term-falling in with the most conservative Justices on civil-state cases. Also, Justice Thomas joined Justice Kennedy in being the determinative vote for closely decided cases. As we noted last Term, a change in the ideological orientation of only a single Justice, in such circumstances, can dramatically impact the outcome across the entire range of issues examined by this Study

Supreme Court Voting Behavior: 1999 Term

This Study, the fourteenth in a series, tabulates and analyzes the voting behavior of the United States Supreme Court during the 1999 Term. The analysis is designed to determine whether individual Justices and the Court as a whole are voting more conservatively, more liberally, or about the same as compared with past Terms. This Term\u27s survey suggests a reversal of the Court\u27s liberal trend over the past two Terms, with conservative movement in six of the ten categories. Specifically, the Court\u27s support of statutory civil rights claims plummeted to an all time low, while the Court exhibited a dramatic conservative shift in cases decided by one vote. Furthermore, the Study\u27s second most reliable category for indicating liberal/conservative trends, Civil/ State Party, showed solid conservative movement in all types of decisions. Yet, this apparent conservative movement is counterbalanced somewhat by the fact that the Study\u27s most reliable category for indicating conservative/liberal trends, Criminal/Federal Party, demonstrated some liberal movement. A more in-depth analysis for each category is set forth in Part IV-B of this Study

Supreme Court Voting Behavior - 2003 Term

The 2003 Term, for the second year, notes a liberal trend across a majority of the Tables of this Study. The voting behavior of individual Justices in 2003 was somewhat more stable this Term in that individual departures from past voting behaviors were less pronounced than in 2002. Nevertheless, the Study still demonstrates continuing instability in the voting behavior of individual Justices. This Term, statistically significant departures from past behavior by at least five Members of the Court are present on six Tables. This might suggest that the voting behavior of the Justices on these Tables is in transition, although the often-small statistical samples reported on many of these Tables also suggests caution in making (or relying upon) this inference. Bloc voting continues to control the outcome of a substantial number of the most controversial questions presented to the Court. But, as noted in the past few Studies, the voting power of conservative voting blocs seems to be losing steam. Justice O\u27Connor maintained her position as the Member of the Court most likely to cast the key swing-vote in closely divided opinions. The Study also demonstrates that Justice O\u27Connor\u27s voting behavior in state criminal cases has been a reliable indicator of the outcome of Majority Opinions in this category for a number of years. Her absence might alter decisional outcomes, not only in state criminal cases, but in the often-important cases decided by five-to-four votes of the Court