Estimating the maximum rise in temperature according to climate models using abstract interpretation

Current climate models are complex computer programs that are typically iterated time-step by time-step to predict the next set of values of the climate-related variables. Since these iterative methods are necessarily computed only for a fixed number of iterations, they are unable to answer the natural question whether there is a limit to the rise of global temperature. In order to answer that question we propose to combine climate models with software verification techniques that can find invariant conditions for the set of program variables. In particular, we apply the constraint database approach to software verification to find that the rise in global temperature is bounded according to the common Java Climate Model that implements the Wigely/Raper Upwelling-Diffusion Energy Balance Model climate model

Specific Priority Subject 1.2 Summary Report - Understanding and managing the impacts of climate change on the ecology of catchments

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 1.2 on Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Ecology of Catchments. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net with a link from the Wales Environment Research Hub website. The full Participants Outcomes Report was distributed to all attendees at the Workshop

Specific Priority Subject 3.3 Summary Report - Informing decision making for water resources management

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 3.3 on Informing Decision Making for Water Resource Management. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net. The full Participants Outcomes Report was distributed to all participants of the Workshop

Specific Priority Subject 2.4 Summary Report - Supporting sustainable and resilient management of extreme rainfall

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 2.4 on ‘Supporting sustainable and resilient management of extreme rainfall’. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net. The full Participants Outcomes report was distributed to all participants at the Workshop

Specific Priority Subject 3.1 Summary Report - Assessing the value of water

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 3.1 on ‘Assessing the Value of Water’. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net. The full Participants Outcomes Report was distributed to all participants of the Workshop

Specific Priority Subject 2.1 Summary Report - Improving flood prediction, communication and impact assessment

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 2.1 on ‘Improving flood prediction, communication and impact assessment’. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net. The full Participants Outcomes Report was distributed to all participants of the Workshop

Specific Priority Subject 1.1 Summary Report - Assessing upstream methods of land/water management that improve water quality and quantity

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 1.1 on Assessing upstream methods of land/water management that improve water quality and quantity. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net. The full Participants Outcomes Report was distributed to all participants of the Workshop

Specific Priority Subject 2.3 Summary Report - Supporting sustainable and resilient management of droughts

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 2.3 on ‘Supporting sustainable and resilient management of droughts’. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net. The full Participants Outcomes Report was distributed to all participants of the Workshop

Last glacial maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth System model

The mineral dust cycle in pre-industrial (PI) and last glacial maximum (LGM) simulations with the CMIP5 model HadGEM2-A is evaluated. The modeled global dust cycle is enhanced at the LGM, with larger emissions in the Southern hemisphere, consistent with some previous studies. Two different dust uplift schemes within HadGEM2 both show a similar LGM/PI increase in total emissions (60% and 80%) and global loading (100% and 75%), but there is a factor of three difference in the top of the atmosphere net LGM-PI direct radiative forcing (-1.2Wm−2 and -0.4Wm−2, respectively). This forcing is dominated by the short-wave effects in both schemes. Recent reconstructions of dust deposition fluxes suggest that the LGM increase is overestimated in the Southern Atlantic and underestimated over east Antarctica. The LGM dust deposition reconstructions do not strongly discern between these two dust schemes because deposition is dominated by larger (2-6Îijm diameter) particles for which the two schemes show similar loading in both time periods. The model with larger radiative forcing shows a larger relative emissions increase of smaller particles. This is because of the size-dependent friction velocity emissions threshold and different size distribution of the soil source particles compared with the second scheme. Size-dependence of the threshold velocity is consistent with the theory of saltation, implying that the model with larger radiative forcing is more realistic. However, the large difference in radiative forcing between the two schemes highlights the size distribution at emission as a major uncertainty in predicting the climatic effects of dust cycle changes

Specific Priority Subject 1.3 Summary Report - Linking natural networks and communities across rural and urban systems

This report is the Summary Outcomes Report of the WSKEP Specific Priority Subject Workshop 1.3 on ‘Linking natural networks and communities across rural and urban systems’. It includes an introduction reporting the key recommendations resulting from the Workshop. This document will be made available on the Programme website www.wskep.net. The full Participants Outcomes Report was distributed to all participants of the Workshop