Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Occurrence of carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli in the European survey of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (EuSCAPE): a prospective, multinational study

The members of the European Survey on Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae, (EuSCAPE) Working Group are: Portugal—Manuela Caniça and Vera ManageiroBACKGROUND: Gaps in the diagnostic capacity and heterogeneity of national surveillance and reporting standards in Europe make it difficult to contain carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae. We report the development of a consistent sampling framework and the results of the first structured survey on the occurrence of carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli in European hospitals. METHODS: National expert laboratories recruited hospitals with diagnostic capacities, who collected the first ten carbapenem non-susceptible clinical isolates of K pneumoniae or E coli and ten susceptible same-species comparator isolates and pertinent patient and hospital information. Isolates and data were relayed back to national expert laboratories, which made laboratory-substantiated information available for central analysis. FINDINGS: Between Nov 1, 2013, and April 30, 2014, 455 sentinel hospitals in 36 countries submitted 2703 clinical isolates (2301 [85%] K pneumoniae and 402 (15%) E coli). 850 (37%) of 2301 K pneumoniae samples and 77 (19%) of 402 E coli samples were carbapenemase (KPC, NDM, OXA-48-like, or VIM) producers. The ratio of K pneumoniae to E coli was 11:1. 1·3 patients per 10 000 hospital admissions had positive clinical specimens. Prevalence differed greatly, with the highest rates in Mediterranean and Balkan countries. Carbapenemase-producing K pneumoniae isolates showed high resistance to last-line antibiotics. INTERPRETATION: This initiative shows an encouraging commitment by all participants, and suggests that challenges in the establishment of a continent-wide enhanced sentinel surveillance for carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaeceae can be overcome. Strengthening infection control efforts in hospitals is crucial for controlling spread through local and national health care networks.European Centre for Disease Prevention and Controlinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio