Structural Forecasting for Short-term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance

Because geostationary satellite (Geo) imagery provides a high temporal resolution window into tropical cyclone (TC) behavior, we investigate the viability of its application to short-term probabilistic forecasts of TC convective structure to subsequently predict TC intensity. Here, we present a prototype model which is trained solely on two inputs: Geo infrared imagery leading up to the synoptic time of interest and intensity estimates up to 6 hours prior to that time. To estimate future TC structure, we compute cloud-top temperature radial profiles from infrared imagery and then simulate the evolution of an ensemble of those profiles over the subsequent 12 hours by applying a Deep Autoregressive Generative Model (PixelSNAIL). To forecast TC intensities at hours 6 and 12, we input operational intensity estimates up to the current time (0 h) and simulated future radial profiles up to +12 h into a ``nowcasting'' convolutional neural network. We limit our inputs to demonstrate the viability of our approach and to enable quantification of value added by the observed and simulated future radial profiles beyond operational intensity estimates alone. Our prototype model achieves a marginally higher error than the National Hurricane Center's official forecasts despite excluding environmental factors, such as vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature. We also demonstrate that it is possible to reasonably predict short-term evolution of TC convective structure via radial profiles from Geo infrared imagery, resulting in interpretable structural forecasts that may be valuable for TC operational guidance

The Apoptotic Effects of Methylparaben and Ultraviolet B Light on M624 Human Melanoma Cells

Methylparaben is a commonly used antimicrobial in cosmetics that has been shown to have negative effects on mammalian cells. Human melanoma M624 cells were treated with 1 and 5 mM methylparaben in the presence and absence of 25 mJ/cm2 ultraviolet B (UV-B) light. Cell proliferation assays showed that 5 mM methylparaben was toxic to M624 cells after 24 hours. Apoptotic signaling pathways were analyzed via isolation of separate cellular compartments and protein analysis via western blot. Upon 5 mM methylparaben treatment, PARP I was cleaved indicating apoptosis, which was mediated by the TNF-α receptor activated in the lipid rafts of the M624 cells. Upon 25 mJ/cm2 UV-B radiation, PARP II was activated indicating cellular damage, cytochrome c was released from the mitochondria, and caspase-3 was expressed. Upon combinatory treatment with 5 mM methylparaben and 25 mJ/cm2 UV-B, apoptosis was induced through mitochondrial release of cytochrome c, expression of caspase-3 and cleavage of PARP I, while methylparaben-induced TNF-α receptor activation and UV-B-induced PARP II activation was inhibited., demonstrating that antimicrobial methylparaben in cosmetics can cause damage to cells

Multi-Level Risk and Protective Factors for Substance Use among Zambian Street Youth

Background: High rates of substance use have been reported among youth in Zambia. This is particularly concerning given that substance use is one of the biggest risk factors placing young people at risk for HIV infection. Objectives: The purpose of the current study is to examine how multilevel risk and protective factors (i.e., community, family, peers, individual) influence alcohol and marijuana use. Methods: A total of 250 street youth in Lusaka, Zambia, were interviewed in the summer of 2014 about their alcohol and marijuana use and reasons for usage. Data were analyzed using descriptive and multivariate methods. Results: Youth reported high rates of alcohol use. At the multivariate level, peer- and individual-level variables (e.g., using alcohol or drugs for coping or for fun) explained the most variance, followed by family-level factors. Community-level variables explained the least variance in all models. Conclusion/Importance: A better understanding of multilevel risk and protective factors for young people’s alcohol and marijuana use could lead to the development of better intervention strategies to reduce this behavior among Zambian street youth

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclonic Evolution and Direct Impacts

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing posttransition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed. In particular, some challenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication

Differential effects of dietary supplements on metabolomic profile of smokers versus non-smokers.

BackgroundCigarette smoking is well-known to associate with accelerated skin aging as well as cardiovascular disease and lung cancer, in large part due to oxidative stress. Because metabolites are downstream of genetic variation, as well as transcriptional changes and post-translational modifications of proteins, they are the most proximal reporters of disease states or reversal of disease states.MethodsIn this study, we explore the potential effects of commonly available oral supplements (containing antioxidants, vitamins and omega-3 fatty acids) on the metabolomes of smokers (n = 11) compared to non-smokers (n = 17). At baseline and after 12 weeks of supplementation, metabolomic analysis was performed on serum by liquid and gas chromatography with mass spectroscopy (LC-MS and GC-MS). Furthermore, clinical parameters of skin aging, including cutometry as assessed by three dermatologist raters blinded to subjects' age and smoking status, were measured.ResultsLong-chain fatty acids, including palmitate and oleate, decreased in smokers by 0.76-fold (P = 0.0045) and 0.72-fold (P = 0.0112), respectively. These changes were not observed in non-smokers. Furthermore, age and smoking status showed increased glow (P = 0.004) and a decrease in fine wrinkling (P = 0.038). Cutometry showed an increase in skin elasticity in smokers (P = 0.049) but not in non-smokers. Complexion analysis software (VISIA) revealed decreases in the number of ultraviolet spots (P = 0.031), and cutometry showed increased elasticity (P = 0.05) in smokers but not non-smokers.ConclusionsAdditional future work may shed light on the specific mechanisms by which long-chain fatty acids can lead to increased glow, improved elasticity measures and decreased fine wrinkling in smokers' skin. Our study provides a novel, medicine-focused application of available metabolomic technology to identify changes in sera of human subjects with oxidative stress, and suggests that oral supplementation (in particular, commonly available antioxidants, vitamins and omega-3 fatty acids) affects these individuals in a way that is unique (compared to non-smokers) on a broad level

Primary cutaneous aggressive epidermotropic cytotoxic T-cell lymphomas: reappraisal of a provisional entity in the 2016 WHO classification of cutaneous lymphomas.

Primary cutaneous CD8-positive aggressive epidermotropic T-cell lymphoma is a rare and poorly characterized variant of cutaneous lymphoma still considered a provisional entity in the latest 2016 World Health Organization Classification of Cutaneous lymphomas. We sought to better characterize and provide diagnostic and therapeutic guidance of this rare cutaneous lymphoma. Thirty-four patients with a median age of 77 years (range 19-89 years) presented primarily with extensive annular necrotic plaques or tumor lesions with frequent mucous membrane involvement. The 5-year survival was 32% with a median survival of 12 months. A subset of 17 patients had a prodrome of chronic patches prior to the development of aggressive ulcerative lesions. We identified cases with lack of CD8 or αβ T-cell receptor expression yet with similar clinical and pathological presentation. Allogeneic stem cell transplantation provided partial or complete remissions in 5/6 patients. We recommend the term primary cutaneous aggressive epidermotropic cytotoxic T-cell lymphoma as this more broad designation better describes this clinical-pathologic presentation, which allows the inclusion of cases with CD8 negative and/or αβ/γδ T-cell receptor chain double-positive or double-negative expression. We have identified early skin signs of chronic patch/plaque lesions that are often misdiagnosed as eczema, psoriasis, or mycosis fungoides. Our experience confirms the poor prognosis of this entity and highlights the inefficacy of our standard therapies with the exception of allogeneic stem cell transplantation in selected cases

Oxidative Stress Promotes Peroxiredoxin Hyperoxidation and Attenuates Pro-survival Signaling in Aging Chondrocytes

Oxidative stress-mediated post-translational modifications of redox-sensitive proteins are postulated as a key mechanism underlying age-related cellular dysfunction and disease progression. Peroxiredoxins (PRX) are critical intracellular antioxidants that also regulate redox signaling events. Age-related osteoarthritis is a common form of arthritis that has been associated with mitochondrial dysfunction and oxidative stress. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of aging and oxidative stress on chondrocyte intracellular signaling, with a specific focus on oxidation of cytosolic PRX2 and mitochondrial PRX3. Menadione was used as a model to induce cellular oxidative stress. Compared with chondrocytes isolated from young adult humans, chondrocytes from older adults exhibited higher levels of PRX1–3 hyperoxidation basally and under conditions of oxidative stress. Peroxiredoxin hyperoxidation was associated with inhibition of pro-survival Akt signaling and stimulation of pro-death p38 signaling. These changes were prevented in cultured human chondrocytes by adenoviral expression of catalase targeted to the mitochondria (MCAT) and in cartilage explants from MCAT transgenic mice. Peroxiredoxin hyperoxidation was observed in situ in human cartilage sections from older adults and in osteoarthritic cartilage. MCAT transgenic mice exhibited less age-related osteoarthritis. These findings demonstrate that age-related oxidative stress can disrupt normal physiological signaling and contribute to osteoarthritis and suggest peroxiredoxin hyperoxidation as a potential mechanism