Zinserhöhung der EZB: Wie groß ist die Inflationsgefahr?

Für Thomas Mayer, Deutsche Bank, erscheint es sinnvoll, dass die EZB den Leitzins auf sein neutrales Niveau hochführt. Noch wichtiger für die Wahrung der Stabilität des Euro wäre es aber, dass sich die EZB aus der Finanzierung von durch Insolvenz bedrohten Staaten und ihren Banken zurückzieht. Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank, sieht keine Inflationsgefahr. Er rechnet für Deutschland mit einem jährlichen Preisanstieg von gut 2%. Manfred Jäger-Ambroz.ewicz, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, vertritt die Meinung, dass die EZB eine sachgerechte Leitzinspolitik umsetzt und einen angemessenen Leitzinspfad suggeriert. Michael Lamla und Jan-Egbert Sturm, ETH Zürich, betonen, dass die EZB genügend Glaubwürdigkeit und Transparenz besitzt, um die Inflationserwartungen zu beeinflussen und zu homogenisieren. Ihrer Ansicht nach steigen insgesamt die Inflationserwartungen im Euroraum für das nächste Jahr weiterhin an, ohne aber beunruhigende Werte anzunehmen. Auch Ulrich Kater, DekaBank, sieht die Glaubwürdigkeit des Inflationsregimes mit der Geldwertstabilität als wichtigster Zielsetzung unabhängiger Notenbanken nicht gefährdet. Leon Leschus, HWWI, geht davon aus, dass hohe Rohstoffpreise weiterhin zum Inflationsdruck beitragen werden. Es wäre somit wünschenswert, wenn die EZB ihre begonnene restriktive Geldpolitik fortsetzen würde. Hans Wolfgang Brachinger, Universität Fribourg, sieht angesichts teurer Rohstoffe, zunehmender Spekulation und steigender Produktionskosten in China die Inflationsrisiken in Deutschland wachsen, und zwar unabhängig vom Handeln der EZB.Preisniveaustabilität, Geldpolitik, Zins, Zinspolitik, Inflation, Zentralbank, Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion

The Econometric Foundations of Hedonic Elementary Price Indices

Hedonic methods are currently considered state-of-the-art for handling quality changes when compiling consumer price indices. The present article proposes first a mathematical description of characteristics and of elementary aggregates. In a following step, a hedonic econometric model is formulated and hedonic elementary population indices are defined. These indices extend from simple indices based on some average quality to universal formulae that incorporate the full quality spectrum of the respective elementary aggregate. We emphasise that population indices are unobservable economic parameters that need to be estimated by suitable sample indices. It is shown that most of the hedonic elementary index formulae used in practice are sample versions of particular hedonic elementary population indices

Statistical Theory of Hedonic Price Indices

In the economic literature, essentially, hedonic techniques either are applied straightforwardly or the economic foundations of the hedonic hypothesis are discussed. In this paper, the statistical foundations of hedonic price indices are developed. After a short overview on well-known functional forms of hedonic equations, first, precise hedonic notions of a good and its price are specified. These specifications allow a clear-cut definition of true hedonic price indices. Then, the problem of estimating hedonic price indices is treated. It is shown, first, that the usual hedonic price index formulae result from estimating certain true indices in a special way and, second, that the techniques used in practice for estimating hedonic indices are just first approaches

Euro or “Teuro”?: The Euro-induced Perceived Inflation in Germany

After the introduction of the euro notes and coins in January 2002, throughout the Economic and Monetary Union member countries there was a widespread feeling that the euro had brought about a significant hike in consumer prices. A substantial discrepancy was evident between inflation as measured by the official consumer price indices (CPI) and the one perceived by the general public. In this paper the German case is treated. First, a short overview is given on the public discussions and the many studies published by the German Federal Statistical Office. Then a newly developed theory of inflation perception is outlined and a corresponding index of perceived inflation (IPI) is developed. This index has been calculated for Germany. In the main part of the paper, the results are presented. The IPI time series for Germany from 1996 through 2006 clearly show a special inflation around the introduction of the Euro notes and coins. During that period, the average perceived inflation was approximately 4 times higher than the official inflation rate