6 research outputs found

    Can ICTs Increase Tax? Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

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    The widespread introduction of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and digitalised data management systems is one of the most important developments among African tax administrations in recent years. However, very little evidence is available on their effectiveness in practice, and how taxpayers respond to these changes. This paper starts filling this gap by reporting three sets of results from Ethiopia.DFIDBill and Melinda Gates Foundatio

    Les Technologies de l’Information et de la Communication (TIC) peuvent-elles augmenter les taxes? Résultats expérimentaux en Ethiopie

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    This ICTD Research in Brief is a two-page summary of ICTD Working Paper 82 by Giulia Mascagni, Andualem T. Mengistu, and Firew B. Woldeyes. This series is aimed at policy makers, tax administrators, fellow researchers and anyone else who is big on interest and short on time. African tax administrations have experienced rapid modernisation in the past two decades. The digitalisation of tax records and widespread adoption of ICTs have been key features of this process. However, there is still very little evidence on the effectiveness of ICTs and digitised data on tax collection and the functioning of tax administration more broadly. In principle, ICTs can have a great impact in making the tax administration more efficient. This brief summarises the findings from the working paper that asks the empirical question of whether and to which extent these benefits can materialise in practice, in presence of severe capacity constraints within the tax administration.Résumé du document de travail 82 de Giulia Mascagni, Andualem T. Mengistu, et Firew B. Woldeyes. Les administrations fiscales africaines ont connu une rapide modernisation au cours des deux dernières décennies. La numérisation des dossiers fiscaux et l’adoption généralisée des TIC ont été des éléments majeurs de ce processus. Cependant, il y a encore très peu de preuves de l’efficacité des TIC et des données numérisées sur le recouvrement des impôts et, plus généralement, sur le fonctionnement de l’administration fiscale. En théorie, les TIC peuvent avoir un impact important sur l’augmentation de l’efficacité de l’administration fiscale et sur l’évolution des emplois de tâches mécaniques – comme la saisie des données – vers des tâches plus élaborées – comme les audits et l’analyse de données. En outre, les données numérisées peuvent rendre la mise en œuvre moins coûteuse et plus efficace, en élargissant par exemple l’utilisation des informations issues de sources tierces et par le recoupement systématique des informations des contribuables. Cet article cherche à établir de manière empirique si, et dans quelle mesure, ces avantages peuvent se matérialiser dans la pratique, en présence d’importantes contraintes de capacité au sein de l’administration fiscale

    The distributional and multi-sectoral impacts of rainfall shocks: evidence from panel data analysis and computable general equilibrium modelling for the Awash basin, Ethiopia

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    Analysis of the effects of hydro-climatic variables on economic outcomes helps to inform the design of agricultural and water polices and the economic assessment of climate change impacts. This paper presents an analysis of the multi-sectoral and distributional economic impacts of rainfall shocks in the Awash river basin in Ethiopia. Using novel disaggregated data on crop production, we estimate the direct impacts of rainfall shocks on agriculture and then use a Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate how these rainfall shocks propagate through the wider economy of the basin under three different climate change scenarios. Results are examined by sector and income group. The basin’s economy and expanding agricultural sector are highly vulnerable to the impacts of rainfall shocks. A rainfall decrease scenario could lead to a 5% decline in the basin’s GDP, with agricultural GDP standing to drop by as much as 10%, whilst all sectors benefit from greater rainfall amounts. Distributional impacts depend on location in the basin and type of household, with poor households accruing greater benefits relative to non-poor households under a scenario of additional rainfall and suffering lower income losses under a scenario of rainfall decrease.status: publishe

    Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p
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