Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R0, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R0 for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R0 were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R0. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate

Cluster Monte Carlo and dynamical scaling for long-range interactions

Many spin systems affected by critical slowing down can be efficiently simulated using cluster algorithms. Where such systems have long-range interactions, suitable formulations can additionally bring down the computational effort for each update from O($N^2$) to O($N\ln N$) or even O($N$), thus promising an even more dramatic computational speed-up. Here, we review the available algorithms and propose a new and particularly efficient single-cluster variant. The efficiency and dynamical scaling of the available algorithms are investigated for the Ising model with power-law decaying interactions.Comment: submitted to Eur. Phys. J Spec. Topic

Performance of reconstruction and identification of τ leptons decaying to hadrons and vτ in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV

The algorithm developed by the CMS Collaboration to reconstruct and identify τ leptons produced in proton-proton collisions at √s=7 and 8 TeV, via their decays to hadrons and a neutrino, has been significantly improved. The changes include a revised reconstruction of π⁰ candidates, and improvements in multivariate discriminants to separate τ leptons from jets and electrons. The algorithm is extended to reconstruct τ leptons in highly Lorentz-boosted pair production, and in the high-level trigger. The performance of the algorithm is studied using proton-proton collisions recorded during 2016 at √s=13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb¯¹. The performance is evaluated in terms of the efficiency for a genuine τ lepton to pass the identification criteria and of the probabilities for jets, electrons, and muons to be misidentified as τ leptons. The results are found to be very close to those expected from Monte Carlo simulation

Search for heavy resonances decaying to a top quark and a bottom quark in the lepton+jets final state in proton–proton collisions at 13 TeV

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances decaying to a top quark and a bottom quark using data collected by the CMS experiment at √s = 13TeV in 2016. The data set analyzed corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. Final states that include a single lepton (e, μ), multiple jets, and missing transverse momentum are analyzed. No evidence is found for the production of a W′ boson, and the production of right-handed W′ bosons is excluded at 95% confidence level for masses up to 3.6 TeV depending on the scenario considered. Exclusion limits for W′ bosons are also presented as a function of their coupling strength to left- and right-handed fermions. These limits on a W′ boson decaying via a top and a bottom quark are the most stringent published to date

Measurement of angular parameters from the decay B⁰ → K⁎0^{⁎0} μ⁺ μ⁻ in proton–proton collisions at √s 8 TeV

Angular distributions of the decay B⁰  → K$^{⁎0}$ μ⁺ μ⁻ are studied using a sample of proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeV collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.5fb⁻¹ . An angular analysis is performed to determine the P₁ and P$^{\u27}$₅ parameters, where the P$^{\u27}$₅ parameter is of particular interest because of recent measurements that indicate a potential discrepancy with the standard model predictions. Based on a sample of 1397 signal events, the P₁ and P$^{\u27}$₅ parameters are determined as a function of the dimuon invariant mass squared. The measurements are in agreement with predictions based on the standard model