Winskill's Temperance Standard Bearers of the Nineteenth Century Vol.1 and Vol. 2

A biographical dictionary

Dispersal of engineered male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

BACKGROUND:Aedes aegypti, the principal vector of dengue fever, have been genetically engineered for use in a sterile insect control programme. To improve our understanding of the dispersal ecology of mosquitoes and to inform appropriate release strategies of 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti detailed knowledge of the dispersal ability of the released insects is needed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The dispersal ability of released 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti at a field site in Brazil has been estimated. Dispersal kernels embedded within a generalized linear model framework were used to analyse data collected from three large scale mark release recapture studies. The methodology has been applied to previously published dispersal data to compare the dispersal ability of 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti in contrasting environments. We parameterised dispersal kernels and estimated the mean distance travelled for insects in Brazil: 52.8 m (95% CI: 49.9 m, 56.8 m) and Malaysia: 58.0 m (95% CI: 51.1 m, 71.0 m). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Our results provide specific, detailed estimates of the dispersal characteristics of released 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti in the field. The comparative analysis indicates that despite differing environments and recapture rates, key features of the insects' dispersal kernels are conserved across the two studies. The results can be used to inform both risk assessments and release programmes using 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti

Health inequities and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting in children under five in low- and middle-income countries: a Demographic and Health Surveys analysis

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria are responsible for over one third of all deaths in children under the age of 5 years in low and middle sociodemographic index countries; many of these deaths are also associated with malnutrition. We explore the co-occurrence and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting and their relationship with equity-relevant variables. METHODS: Multilevel, multivariate Bayesian logistic regression models were fitted to Demographic and Health Survey data from over 380,000 children in 39 countries. The relationship between outcome indicators (fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting) and equity-relevant variables (wealth, access to health care and rurality) was examined. We quantified the geographical clustering and co-occurrence of conditions and a child's risk of multiple illnesses. RESULTS: The prevalence of outcomes was very heterogeneous within and between countries. There was marked spatial clustering of conditions and co-occurrence within children. For children in the poorest households and those reporting difficulties accessing healthcare, there were significant increases in the probability of at least one of the conditions in 18 of 21 countries, with estimated increases in the probability of up to 0.23 (95% CrI, 0.06-0.40). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting are associated with equity-relevant variables and cluster together. Via pathways of shared aetiology or risk, those children most disadvantaged disproportionately suffer from these conditions. This highlights the need for horizontal approaches, such as integrated community case management, with a focus on equity and targeted to those most at need

Assessing the impact of intervention strategies against Taenia solium cysticercosis using the EPICYST transmission model

Background The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, and associated human infections, taeniasis, cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis, are serious public health problems, especially in developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for having a validated strategy for control and elimination of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis by 2015 and interventions scaled-up in selected countries by 2020. Timely achievement of these internationally-endorsed targets requires that the relative benefits and effectiveness of potential interventions be explored rigorously within a quantitative framework. Methods A deterministic, compartmental transmission model (EPICYST) was developed to capture the dynamics of the taeniasis/cysticercosis disease system in the human and pig hosts. Cysticercosis prevalence in humans, an outcome of high epidemiological and clinical importance, was explicitly modelled. A next generation matrix approach was used to derive an expression for the basic reproduction number, R 0. A full sensitivity analysis was performed using a methodology based on Latin-hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient index. Results EPICYST outputs indicate that chemotherapeutic intervention targeted at humans or pigs would be highly effective at reducing taeniasis and cysticercosis prevalence when applied singly, with annual chemotherapy of humans and pigs resulting, respectively, in 94 and 74% of human cysticercosis cases averted. Improved sanitation, meat inspection and animal husbandry are less effective but are still able to reduce prevalence singly or in combination. The value of R 0 for taeniasis was estimated at 1.4 (95% Credible Interval: 0.5–3.6). Conclusions Human- and pig-targeted drug-focussed interventions appear to be the most efficacious approach from the options currently available. The model presented is a forward step towards developing an informed control and elimination strategy for cysticercosis. Together with its validation against field data, EPICYST will be a valuable tool to help reach the WHO goals and to conduct economic evaluations of interventions in varying epidemiological settings

Seq2Seq Surrogates of Epidemic Models to Facilitate Bayesian Inference

Epidemic models are powerful tools in understanding infectious disease. However, as they increase in size and complexity, they can quickly become computationally intractable. Recent progress in modelling methodology has shown that surrogate models can be used to emulate complex epidemic models with a high-dimensional parameter space. We show that deep sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models can serve as accurate surrogates for complex epidemic models with sequence based model parameters, effectively replicating seasonal and long-term transmission dynamics. Once trained, our surrogate can predict scenarios a several thousand times faster than the original model, making them ideal for policy exploration. We demonstrate that replacing a traditional epidemic model with a learned simulator facilitates robust Bayesian inference

False-negative malaria rapid diagnostic test results and their impact on community-based malaria surveys in sub- Saharan Africa

Surveillance and diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum malaria relies predominantly on rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). However, false-negative RDT results are known to occur for a variety of reasons, including operator error, poor storage conditions, pfhrp2/3 gene deletions, poor performance of specific RDT brands and lots, and low-parasite-density infections. We used RDT and microscopy results from 85,000 children enrolled in Demographic Health Surveys and Malaria Indicator Surveys from 2009 to 2015 across 19 countries to explore the distribution of and risk factors for false-negative RDTs in Sub40 Saharan Africa, where malaria’s impact is greatest. We sought to (i) identify spatial and demographic patterns of false-negative RDT (FN-RDT) results, defined as a negative RDT but positive gold-standard microscopy test, and (ii) estimate the percentage of infections missed within community-based malaria surveys due to FN-RDT results. Across all studies, 19.9% [95% CI: 19.0 – 20.9] of microscopy-positive subjects were negative by RDT. The distribution of FN-RDT results was spatially heterogeneous. The variance in FN-RDT results was best explained by the prevalence of malaria, with an increase in FN46 RDT results observed at lower transmission intensities, among younger subjects, and in urban areas. The observed proportion of FN-RDT results was not predicted by differences in RDT brand or lot performance alone. These findings characterise how the probability of detection by RDTs varies in different transmission settings and emphasize the need for careful interpretation of prevalence estimates based on surveys employing RDTs alone. Further studies are needed to characterise the cost-effectiveness of improved malaria diagnostics (e.g. PCR or highly sensitive RDTs) in community52 based surveys, especially in regions of low transmission intensity or high urbanicity

Report 43: Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic

Vaccine hesitancy – a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability 1 – has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally 2 . Here, we evaluate the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the pandemic and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by combining an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission 3 with data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys. Our findings suggest that the mortality over a 2-year period could be up to 8 times higher in countries with high vaccine hesitancy compared to an ideal vaccination uptake if NPIs are relaxed. Alternatively, high vaccine hesitancy could prolong the need for NPIs to remain in place. Addressing vaccine hesitancy with behavioural interventions is therefore an important priority in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic

Understanding efficacy-safety balance of biologics in moderate-to-severe pediatric psoriasis

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a chronic immune-mediated inflammatory skin disease affecting both adults and children. To better understand the efficacy-safety profile of biologics in children with moderate-to-severe psoriasis, this study aimed to analyze efficacy and safety data of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) performed in pediatric psoriasis and to compare efficacy outcomes in children with those in adults. METHODS: RCTs investigating biologics in children with moderate-to-severe psoriasis were identified in a systematic literature review. PASI75/90 treatment responses at weeks 11/12 were analyzed comparing biologics with control arms. Serious adverse events (SAEs) were analyzed at the end of each study. Efficacy data from RCTs in adults with psoriasis were selected for the same biologics. Risk ratios (RR) of selected RCTs were pooled together in a statistical random effects model using the inverse variance method. RESULTS: For children, there were 1 etanercept, 2 secukinumab, 1 ixekizumab and 1 ustekinumab placebo-controlled RCTs and 1 adalimumab RCT using methotrexate as reference arm at weeks 11/12. For adults, out of 263 RCTs, 7 adalimumab and 15 etanercept (TNF inhibitors) and 4 ixekizumab and 12 ustekinumab (IL-17 and IL-12/23 inhibitors) RCTs reported PASI75/90 efficacy responses at weeks 11/12. Regarding efficacy, all biologics showed improved PASI responses over control arms. RRs ranges were 2.02-7.45 in PASI75 and 4.10-14.50 in PASI90. The highest PASI75 responses were seen for ustekinumab 0.375 mg/kg (RR = 7.25, 95% CI 2.83-18.58) and ustekinumab 0.75 mg/kg (RR = 7.45, 95% CI 2.91-19.06) in the CADMUS study. The highest PASI90 response was seen for ixekizumab (RR = 14.50, 95% CI 4.82-43.58) in the IXORA-PEDS study. SAE incidences in pediatric and adult arms with biologics were 0 to 3% except for a pediatric arm with adalimumab 0.40 mg/kg (8%). For adults, pooled RR also showed improved PASI responses over placebo for all biologics, with highest PASI75 response observed for ixekizumab (pooled RR = 16.18, 95% CI 11.83-22.14). CONCLUSION: Both adults and children with psoriasis show superior efficacy with biologics compared to control arms after 3 months of treatment with SAE incidences in the low percentages. Additional longer-term clinical studies are warranted to fully understand the overall efficacy-safety profile of biologics in children with moderate-to-severe psoriasis