Initial Conditions, European Colonialism and Africa's Growth

We investigate the role of initial conditions at colonial independence on economic growth in Africa in the post-independence period using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). A key innovation in our estimation methodology is that we incorporate parameter heterogeneity in model averaging as well as try to mitigate the endogeneity problem present in growth regressions. In order to ensure that differences in the growth determinants between Africa and the world are not driven by experiences of an alternative group of countries, we also control for the presence of OECD countries and former European colonies in the global sample. We find that the impact of different initial conditions on growth in Africa is strikingly different from the world. We argue that these initial conditions reflect the state of development at the close of the colonial era and are therefore inherently related with the legacy of colonialism.

Education Sector Foreign Aid and Economic Growth in Africa

This paper explores whether education sector foreign aid influences economic growth in Africa based on a panel of 32 countries over the period 2005 – 2017. The major novelty of the study is that on the supply side the major dependent variable, education aid flows, are disaggregated by education level. On the demand side, the recipient economies are accorded their income groups to account for capacities that complement the effects of human capital development on economic growth as well as the benevolent complementary or destabilizing effects of different political systems of government. The key findings are that: (i) education aid in aggregate form and primary education aid both enhance economic growth in low income countries; (ii) in middle income countries higher education aid is more important for economic growth than primary and secondary education foreign aid; (iii) democracies have a stronger tendency to allocate more education sector foreign aid to primary education, while in autocracies the orientation is towards higher education. The findings imply that low-income autocracies that allocate more education sector foreign aid to higher education than to primary education do so at the expense of economic growth. The same applies to middle-income democracies whose allocation orientation is more towards primary education compared to higher education

Midwest Macro Conference

Abstract This paper takes a fresh look into Africa's growth experience by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology. BMA enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which of these variable can e¤ectively explain Africa's growth experience. Posterior coe¢ cient estimates reveal that key engines of growth in Africa are substantially di¤erent from those in the rest of the world. More precisely, it is shown that mining, primary exports and initial primary education exerted di¤erential e¤ect on African growth. These results are examined in relation to the existing literature. JEL Classi…cation: O40, O47. Keywords: Africa, growth determinants, model uncertainty, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We thank the editor Steven Durlauf and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions. We also thank seminar participants a

75 Years of Development Research Conference

Abstract This paper takes a fresh look into Africa's dismal growth performance by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology. We estimate the posterior probability of a large number of potential explanatory variables and cross-country regression models. In large, we Þnd that determinants of growth in Africa are strikingly different from the rest of the world. In addition, growth regression models that best explain global growth do poorly in explaining African growth, and conversely

HIV/AIDS, Household Income, and Consumption Dynamics in Malawi

A survey of recent writings on the interactions between the AIDS epidemic and livelihoods in Africa leaves one with the impression that development practitioners, academics, and even casual observers of developments in Africa are hell-bent on pinning most of Africa’s economic stagnation on the AIDS epidemic. This is all the more troubling because, although in the past 15 years economists have attempted to systematically link AIDS and poverty and to test the strength of those linkages, the relationships among livelihoods, poverty, and the AIDS epidemic remains so complex that we still know little about the actual contribution of AIDS in explaining observed cases of persistent poverty and divergent economic fortunes in Africa. For instance, a number of macro-level forecasts, from the pioneering studies (Ainsworth and Over 1992; Cuddington 1993; Cuddington and Hancock 1994) to more recent ones (e.g., Bloom and Mahal 1997; Greener, Jefferis, and Siphambe 2000; Arndt and Lewis 2001; Haacker 2002; Crafts and Haacker 2003) have generated an almost universal consensus that the AIDS epidemic will have an immense impact on the macroeconomies of hard-hit countries, significantly slowing economic growth and worsening poverty and income distribution (also see summaries in UNFPA 2002; UNAIDS 2002). Yet recent experience seems to suggest that because the HIV population is still a relatively small proportion of the total population, even in hard-hit countries, macro-level economic impacts of AIDS are likely to be barely visible in national statistics (Desbarats 2002).PRIFPRI1; GRP33; Theme 4; Subtheme 4.1; Food systems: disaster prevention, relief, and rebuilding after crises; Health, Diet and Nutrition; RENEWALFCN