Decision by Sampling and Memory Distinctiveness: Range Effects from Rank-Based Models of Judgment and Choice

To what extent are preferences for risk – and for other economic quantities – stable, and to what extent are they malleable and context-dependent? Judgments and choices are strongly influenced by the context of available options in both the laboratory and the real world (e.g., Parducci, 1995; Sharpe et al., 2008), and this applies both to choices between risky options and more generally (Stewart et al., 2003). What cognitive processes underpin these contextual influences? According to the decision by sampling model (DbS: Stewart et al., 2006), judgments of a stimulus in a context depend solely on the relative ranked position of the stimulus within the remembered or experienced context of judgment. The claim that only relative ranked position matters appears, however, to contradict both empirical data and an earlier model of judgment, range frequency theory (RFT: Parducci, 1965, 1995), according to which the position of a stimulus with respect to the highest and lowest stimuli in the context (its range position) also matters. Here we show that a purely rank-based approach can account for apparent range effects when the relative memorability of contextual items, as independently determined by a memory model (Brown et al., 2007), is taken into account. Such a demonstration is important for several reasons. In particular, it is important to understand whether the skew of a distribution (e.g., the degree of inequality of an income distribution) influences the judgments of items (e.g., individuals ’ own incomes) within that distribution. If judgments are based solely on relative rank (as DbS claims), there should be no effects of distribution skewness – yet such effects are frequently observed. For example, there is a tension between the claim that income inequality within a society influences various indices of societal well-being (e.g., Wilkinson and Pickett, 2009) and the claim that individuals are primarily or solely concerned with the ranked position of their income (Boyce et al., 2010). Here we address this tension directly

Recent Decisions

Comments on recent decisions by William J. Daner, William T. Huston, James D. Matthews, Benedict R. Danko, John E. Lindberg, Maynard R. Bissonnette, Joseph H. Harrison, Peter J. Donahue, Louis J. Mustico, Donald John Tufts, Henry M. Shine, Jr., Arthur L. Beaudette, Luke R. Morin, John F. Mendoza, and Thomas A. Muscatello

A major QTL corresponding to the Rk locus for resistance to root-knot nematodes in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.).

Key messageGenome resolution of a major QTL associated with the Rk locus in cowpea for resistance to root-knot nematodes has significance for plant breeding programs and R gene characterization. Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.) is a susceptible host of root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.) (RKN), major plant-parasitic pests in global agriculture. To date, breeding for host resistance in cowpea has relied on phenotypic selection which requires time-consuming and expensive controlled infection assays. To facilitate marker-based selection, we aimed to identify and map quantitative trait loci (QTL) conferring the resistance trait. One recombinant inbred line (RIL) and two F2:3 populations, each derived from a cross between a susceptible and a resistant parent, were genotyped with genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The populations were screened in the field for root-galling symptoms and/or under growth-chamber conditions for nematode reproduction levels using M. incognita and M. javanica biotypes. One major QTL was mapped consistently on linkage group VuLG11 of each population. By genotyping additional cowpea lines and near-isogenic lines derived from conventional backcrossing, we confirmed that the detected QTL co-localized with the genome region associated with the Rk locus for RKN resistance that has been used in conventional breeding for many decades. This chromosomal location defined with flanking markers will be a valuable target in marker-assisted breeding and for positional cloning of genes controlling RKN resistance

A Novel Root-Knot Nematode Resistance QTL on Chromosome Vu01 in Cowpea.

The root-knot nematode (RKN) species Meloidogyne incognita and M. javanica cause substantial root system damage and suppress yield of susceptible cowpea cultivars. The narrow-based genetic resistance conferred by the Rk gene, present in some commercial cultivars, is not effective against Rk-virulent populations found in several cowpea production areas. The dynamics of virulence within RKN populations require a broadening of the genetic base of resistance in elite cowpea cultivars. As part of this goal, F1 and F2 populations from the cross CB46-Null (susceptible) x FN-2-9-04 (resistant) were phenotyped for M. javanica induced root-galling (RG) and egg-mass production (EM) in controlled growth chamber and greenhouse infection assays. In addition, F[Formula: see text] families of the same cross were phenotyped for RG on field sites infested with Rk-avirulent M. incognita and M. javanica The response of F1 to RG and EM indicated that resistance to RKN in FN-2-9-04 is partially dominant, as supported by the degree of dominance in the F2 and F[Formula: see text] populations. Two QTL associated with both RG and EM resistance were detected on chromosomes Vu01 and Vu04. The QTL on Vu01 was most effective against aggressive M. javanica, whereas both QTL were effective against avirulent M. incognita Allelism tests with CB46 x FN-2-9-04 progeny indicated that these parents share the same RKN resistance locus on Vu04, but the strong, broad-based resistance in FN-2-9-04 is conferred by the additive effect of the novel resistance QTL on Vu01. This novel resistance in FN-2-9-04 is an important resource for broadening RKN resistance in elite cowpea cultivars

Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model

Presented here is the first chironomid calibration data set for tropical South America. Surface sediments were collected from 59 lakes across Bolivia (15 lakes), Peru (32 lakes), and Ecuador (12 lakes) between 2004 and 2013 over an altitudinal gradient from 150 m above sea level (a.s.l) to 4655 m a.s.l, between 0–17◦ S and 64–78◦ W. The study sites cover a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient of 25 ◦ C. In total, 55 chironomid taxa were identified in the 59 calibration data set lakes. When used as a single explanatory variable, MAT explains 12.9% of the variance (λ1/λ2 =1.431). Two inference models were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and Bayesian methods. The best performing model using conventional statistical methods was a WA (inverse) model (R2jack= 0.890; RMSEPjack= 2.404 ◦C, RMSEP – root mean jack squared error of prediction; mean biasjack = −0.017 ◦C; max biasjack = 4.665 ◦C). The Bayesian method produced a model with R2jack = 0.909, RMSEPjack = 2.373 ◦C, mean jack biasjack = 0.598 ◦C, and max biasjack = 3.158 ◦C. Both models were used to infer past temperatures from a ca. 3000-year record from the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Laguna Pindo. Inferred temperatures fluctuated around modern-day conditions but showed significant departures at certain intervals (ca. 1600 cal yr BP; ca. 3000–2500 cal yr BP). Both methods (WA and Bayesian) showed similar patterns of temperature variability; however, the magnitude of fluctuations differed. In general the WA method was more variable and often underestimated Holocene temperatures (by ca. −7 ± 2.5 ◦C relative to the modern period). The Bayesian method provided temperature anomaly estimates for cool periods that lay within the expected range of the Holocene (ca. −3 ± 3.4 ◦C). The error associated with both reconstructions is consistent with a constant temperature of 20 ◦C for the past 3000 years. We would caution, however, against an over-interpretation at this stage. The reconstruction can only currently be deemed qualitative and requires more research before quantitative estimates can be generated with confidence. Increasing the number, and spread, of lakes in the calibration data set would enable the detection of smaller climate signals

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid- and high-latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high-elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic-induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio-indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes

Forests protect aquatic communities from detrimental impact by volcanic deposits in the tropical Andes (Ecuador)

Volcanic activity impacts ecosystems sometimes with multiple, complex and long-lasting consequences, including volcanic tephra (airborne material) causing widespread disruptions. We study the effects of tephra deposition around two tropical lakes of Ecuador using a multi-proxy analysis of lake sediment archives spanning the last 2000 years. We present the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation (pollen), aquatic macroinvertebrate fauna (chironomids) and organic matter (stable isotopes) in: (i) a high elevation, stream-connected, open alpine grassland (Andean páramo) and (ii) a mid-elevation, stream-isolated, pre-montane forest. Páramo vegetation showed a slight increase in herbs and quick recovery after the tephra deposition; however, the aquatic community suffered a regime shift not reversed today c. 1500 years after the event. In the pre-montane location, the canopy opened up following tephra deposition, and it took c. 150 years to return to pre-impact levels. At the forested site, no major changes in the aquatic fauna were observed related to the tephra deposition. We hypothesise that the forest acted as a protective barrier preventing a large fallout of ash into the aquatic system. Forest not only acted as a buffer for ash falling into the water from the air, but also prevented landslides of tephra by enhancing soil stability, contrary to what was observed in the open system. We demonstrate the protective ecosystem service that forests play in sustaining ecological resilience and water quality facing natural (volcanic) disturbance. The ongoing deforestation of tropical regions therefore might increase the vulnerability of aquatic ecosystems, threatening the water quality for ecosystems and human populations