Retrospective Inference as a Form of Bounded Rationality, and Its Beneficial Influence on Learning

Probabilistic models of cognition typically assume that agents make inferences about current states by combining new sensory information with fixed beliefs about the past, an approach known as Bayesian filtering. This is computationally parsimonious, but, in general, leads to suboptimal beliefs about past states, since it ignores the fact that new observations typically contain information about the past as well as the present. This is disadvantageous both because knowledge of past states may be intrinsically valuable, and because it impairs learning about fixed or slowly changing parameters of the environment. For these reasons, in offline data analysis it is usual to infer on every set of states using the entire time series of observations, an approach known as (fixed-interval) Bayesian smoothing. Unfortunately, however, this is impractical for real agents, since it requires the maintenance and updating of beliefs about an ever-growing set of states. We propose an intermediate approach, finite retrospective inference (FRI), in which agents perform update beliefs about a limited number of past states (Formally, this represents online fixed-lag smoothing with a sliding window). This can be seen as a form of bounded rationality in which agents seek to optimize the accuracy of their beliefs subject to computational and other resource costs. We show through simulation that this approach has the capacity to significantly increase the accuracy of both inference and learning, using a simple variational scheme applied to both randomly generated Hidden Markov models (HMMs), and a specific application of the HMM, in the form of the widely used probabilistic reversal task. Our proposal thus constitutes a theoretical contribution to normative accounts of bounded rationality, which makes testable empirical predictions that can be explored in future work

Population level inference for multivariate MEG analysis

Multivariate analysis is a very general and powerful technique for analysing Magnetoencephalography (MEG) data. An outstanding problem however is how to make inferences that are consistent over a group of subjects as to whether there are condition-specific differences in data features, and what are those features that maximise these differences. Here we propose a solution based on Canonical Variates Analysis (CVA) model scoring at the subject level and random effects Bayesian model selection at the group level. We apply this approach to beamformer reconstructed MEG data in source space. CVA estimates those multivariate patterns of activation that correlate most highly with the experimental design; the order of a CVA model is then determined by the number of significant canonical vectors. Random effects Bayesian model comparison then provides machinery for inferring the optimal order over the group of subjects. Absence of a multivariate dependence is indicated by the null model being the most likely. This approach can also be applied to CVA models with a fixed number of canonical vectors but supplied with different feature sets. We illustrate the method by identifying feature sets based on variable-dimension MEG power spectra in the primary visual cortex and fusiform gyrus that are maximally discriminative of data epochs before versus after visual stimulation

Multitask learning over shared subspaces

This paper uses constructs from machine learning to define pairs of learning tasks that either shared or did not share a common subspace. Human subjects then learnt these tasks using a feedback-based approach and we hypothesised that learning would be boosted for shared subspaces. Our findings broadly supported this hypothesis with either better performance on the second task if it shared the same subspace as the first, or positive correlations over task performance for shared subspaces. These empirical findings were compared to the behaviour of a Neural Network model trained using sequential Bayesian learning and human performance was found to be consistent with a minimal capacity variant of this model. Networks with an increased representational capacity, and networks without Bayesian learning, did not show these transfer effects. We propose that the concept of shared subspaces provides a useful framework for the experimental study of human multitask and transfer learning

Working memory replay prioritizes weakly attended events

One view of working memory posits that maintaining a series of events requires their sequential and equal mnemonic replay. Another view is that the content of working memory maintenance is prioritized by attention. We decoded the dynamics for retaining a sequence of items using magnetoencephalography, wherein participants encoded sequences of three stimuli depicting a face, a manufactured object, or a natural item and maintained them in working memory for 5000 ms. Memory for sequence position and stimulus details were probed at the end of the maintenance period. Decoding of brain activity revealed that one of the three stimuli dominated maintenance independent of its sequence position or category; and memory was enhanced for the selectively replayed stimulus. Analysis of event-related responses during the encoding of the sequence showed that the selectively replayed stimuli were determined by the degree of attention at encoding. The selectively replayed stimuli had the weakest initial encoding indexed by weaker visual attention signals at encoding. These findings do not rule out sequential mnemonic replay but reveal that attention influences the content of working memory maintenance by prioritizing replay of weakly encoded events. We propose that the prioritization of weakly encoded stimuli protects them from interference during the maintenance period, whereas the more strongly encoded stimuli can be retrieved from long-term memory at the end of the delay period

How do neural processes give rise to cognition? Simultaneously predicting brain and behavior with a dynamic model of visual working memory

There is consensus that activation within distributed functional brain networks underlies human thought. The impact of this consensus is limited, however, by a gap that exists between data-driven correlational analyses that specify where functional brain activity is localized using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and neural process accounts that specify how neural activity unfolds through time to give rise to behavior. Here, we show how an integrative cognitive neuroscience approach may bridge this gap. In an exemplary study of visual working memory, we use multilevel Bayesian statistics to demonstrate that a neural dynamic model simultaneously explains behavioral data and predicts localized patterns of brain activity, outperforming standard analytic approaches to fMRI. The model explains performance on both correct trials and incorrect trials where errors in change detection emerge from neural fluctuations amplified by neural interaction. Critically, predictions of the model run counter to cognitive theories of the origin of errors in change detection. Results reveal neural patterns predicted by the model within regions of the dorsal attention network that have been the focus of much debate. The model-based analysis suggests that key areas in the dorsal attention network such as the intraparietal sulcus play a central role in change detection rather than working memory maintenance, counter to previous interpretations of fMRI studies. More generally, the integrative cognitive neuroscience approach used here establishes a framework for directly testing theories of cognitive and brain function using the combined power of behavioral and fMRI data. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)

Comparing families of dynamic causal models

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data

Learning words in space and time: Contrasting models of the suspicious coincidence effect

In their 2007b Psychological Review paper, Xu and Tenenbaum found that early word learning follows the classic logic of the “suspicious coincidence effect:” when presented with a novel name (‘fep’) and three identical exemplars (three Labradors), word learners generalized novel names more narrowly than when presented with a single exemplar (one Labrador). Xu and Tenenbaum predicted the suspicious coincidence effect based on a Bayesian model of word learning and demonstrated that no other theory captured this effect. Recent empirical studies have revealed, however, that the effect is influenced by factors seemingly outside the purview of the Bayesian account. A process-based perspective correctly predicted that when exemplars are shown sequentially, the effect is eliminated or reversed (Spencer, Perone, Smith, & Samuelson, 2011). Here, we present a new, formal account of the suspicious coincidence effect using a generalization of a Dynamic Neural Field (DNF) model of word learning. The DNF model captures both the original finding and its reversal with sequential presentation. We compare the DNF model's performance with that of a more flexible version of the Bayesian model that allows both strong and weak sampling assumptions. Model comparison results show that the dynamic field account provides a better fit to the empirical data. We discuss the implications of the DNF model with respect to broader contrasts between Bayesian and process-level models

Replay of very early encoding representations during recollection

Long-term memories are linked to cortical representations of perceived events, but it is unclear which types of representations can later be recollected. Using magnetoencephalography-based decoding, we examined which brain activity patterns elicited during encoding are later replayed during recollection in the human brain. The results show that the recollection of images depicting faces and scenes is associated with a replay of neural representations that are formed at very early (180 ms) stages of encoding. This replay occurs quite rapidly, 500 ms after the onset of a cue that prompts recollection and correlates with source memory accuracy. Therefore, long-term memories are rapidly replayed during recollection and involve representations that were formed at very early stages of encoding. These findings indicate that very early representational information can be preserved in the memory engram and can be faithfully and rapidly reinstated during recollection. These novel insights into the nature of the memory engram provide constraints for mechanistic models of long-term memory function

EEG and MEG data analysis in SPM8.

SPM is a free and open source software written in MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc.). In addition to standard M/EEG preprocessing, we presently offer three main analysis tools: (i) statistical analysis of scalp-maps, time-frequency images, and volumetric 3D source reconstruction images based on the general linear model, with correction for multiple comparisons using random field theory; (ii) Bayesian M/EEG source reconstruction, including support for group studies, simultaneous EEG and MEG, and fMRI priors; (iii) dynamic causal modelling (DCM), an approach combining neural modelling with data analysis for which there are several variants dealing with evoked responses, steady state responses (power spectra and cross-spectra), induced responses, and phase coupling. SPM8 is integrated with the FieldTrip toolbox , making it possible for users to combine a variety of standard analysis methods with new schemes implemented in SPM and build custom analysis tools using powerful graphical user interface (GUI) and batching tools