Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are introduced here, based on quantile forecasts being the base product for the continuous case (hence in a nonparametric framework). The relative user characteristic (RUC) curve and the quantile value plot allow analysing the performance of a forecast for a specific user in a decision-making framework. The RUC curve is designed as a user-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service

Pressure of thermal excitations in superfluid helium

We find the pressure, due to the thermal excitations of superfluid helium, at the interface with a solid. The separate contributions of phonons, $R^-$ rotons and $R^+$ rotons are derived. The pressure due to $R^-$ rotons is shown to be negative and partially compensates the positive contribution of $R^+$ rotons, so the total roton pressure is positive but several times less than the separate $R^-$ and $R^+$ roton contributions. The pressure of the quasiparticle gas is shown to account for the fountain effect in $HeI I$. An experiment is proposed to observe the negative pressure due to $R^-$ rotons.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Squeezing superfluid from a stone: Coupling superfluidity and elasticity in a supersolid

In this work we start from the assumption that normal solid to supersolid (NS-SS) phase transition is continuous, and develop a phenomenological Landau theory of the transition in which superfluidity is coupled to the elasticity of the crystalline $^4$He lattice. We find that the elasticity does not affect the universal properties of the superfluid transition, so that in an unstressed crystal the well-known $\lambda$-anomaly in the heat capacity of the superfluid transition should also appear at the NS-SS transition. We also find that the onset of supersolidity leads to anomalies in the elastic constants near the transition; conversely, inhomogeneous strains in the lattice can induce local variations of the superfluid transition temperature, leading to a broadened transition.Comment: 4 page

Correlation effects in Ni 3d states of LaNiPO

The electronic structure of the new superconducting material LaNiPO experimentally probed by soft X-ray spectroscopy and theoretically calculated by the combination of local density approximation with Dynamical Mean-Field Theory (LDA+DMFT) are compared herein. We have measured the Ni L2,3 X-ray emission (XES) and absorption (XAS) spectra which probe the occupied and unoccupied the Ni 3d states, respectively. In LaNiPO, the Ni 3d states are strongly renormalized by dynamical correlations and shifted about 1.5 eV lower in the valence band than the corresponding Fe 3d states in LaFeAsO. We further obtain a lower Hubbard band at -9 eV below the Fermi level in LaNiPO which bears striking resemblance to the lower Hubbard band in the correlated oxide NiO, while no such band is observed in LaFeAsO. These results are also supported by the intensity ratio between the transition metal L2 and L3 bands measured experimentally to be higher in LaNiPO than in LaFeAsO, indicating the presence of the stronger electron correlations in the Ni 3d states in LaNiPO in comparison with the Fe 3d states in LaFeAsO. These findings are in accordance with resonantly excited transition metal L3 X-ray emission spectra which probe occupied metal 3d-states and show the appearance of the lower Hubbard band in LaNiPO and NiO and its absence in LaFeAsO.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

A new regime of anomalous penetration of relativistically strong laser radiation into an overdense plasma

It is shown that penetration of relativistically intense laser light into an overdense plasma, accessible by self-induced transparency, occurs over a finite length only. The penetration length depends crucially on the overdense plasma parameter and increases with increasing incident intensity after exceeding the threshold for self-induced transparency. Exact analytical solutions describing the plasma-field distributions are presented.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures in 2 separate eps files; submitted to JETP Letter

Community detection‐based deep neural network architectures: A fully automated framework based on Likert‐scale data.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as a state‐of‐the‐art tool in very different research fields due to its adaptive power to the decision space since they do not presuppose any linear relationship between data. Some of the main disadvantages of these trending models are that the choice of the network underlying architecture profoundly influences the performance of the model and that the architecture design requires prior knowledge of the field of study. The use of questionnaires is hugely extended in social/behavioral sciences. The main contribution of this work is to automate the process of a DNN architecture design by using an agglomerative hierarchical algorithm that mimics the conceptual structure of such surveys. Although the train had regression purposes, it is easily convertible to deal with classification tasks. Our proposed methodology will be tested with a database containing socio‐demographic data and the responses to five psychometric Likert scales related to the prediction of happiness. These scales have been already used to design a DNN architecture based on the subdimension of the scales. We show that our new network configurations outperform the previous existing DNN architectures

Scattering of second sound waves by quantum vorticity

A new method of detection and measurement of quantum vorticity by scattering second sound off quantized vortices in superfluid Helium is suggested. Theoretical calculations of the relative amplitude of the scattered second sound waves from a single quantum vortex, a vortex ring, and bulk vorticity are presented. The relevant estimates show that an experimental verification of the method is feasible. Moreover, it can even be used for the detection of a single quantum vortex.Comment: Latex file, 9 page

Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter

Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the employed statistical framework and scanning algorithm. In frequentist parameter estimation, a central requirement for properly constructed confidence intervals is that they cover true parameter values, preferably at exactly the stated confidence level when experiments are repeated infinitely many times. Since most widely-used scanning techniques are optimised for Bayesian statistics, one needs to assess their abilities in providing correct confidence intervals in terms of the statistical coverage. Here we investigate this for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) when only constrained by data from direct searches for dark matter. We construct confidence intervals from one-dimensional profile likelihoods and study the coverage by generating several pseudo-experiments for a few benchmark sets of pseudo-true parameters. We use nested sampling to scan the parameter space and evaluate the coverage for the benchmarks when either flat or logarithmic priors are imposed on gaugino and scalar mass parameters. The sampling algorithm has been used in the configuration usually adopted for exploration of the Bayesian posterior. We observe both under- and over-coverage, which in some cases vary quite dramatically when benchmarks or priors are modified. We show how most of the variation can be explained as the impact of explicit priors as well as sampling effects, where the latter are indirectly imposed by physicality conditions. For comparison, we also evaluate the coverage for Bayesian credible intervals, and observe significant under-coverage in those cases.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures; v2 includes major updates in response to referee's comments; extra scans and tables added, discussion expanded, typos corrected; matches published versio

Electromagnetic energy penetration in the self-induced transparency regime of relativistic laser-plasma interactions

Two scenarios for the penetration of relativistically intense laser radiation into an overdense plasma, accessible by self-induced transparency, are presented. For supercritical densities less than 1.5 times the critical one, penetration of laser energy occurs by soliton-like structures moving into the plasma. At higher background densities laser light penetrates over a finite length only, that increases with the incident intensity. In this regime plasma-field structures represent alternating electron layers separated by about half a wavelength by depleted regions.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted for publication to PR