A coarsened multinomial regression model for perinatal mother to child transmission of HIV

Background: In trials designed to estimate rates of perinatal mother to child transmission of HIV, HIV assays are scheduled at multiple points in time. Still, infection status for some infants at some time points may be unknown, particularly when interim analyses are conducted. Methods: Logistic regression models are commonly used to estimate covariate-adjusted transmission rates, but their methods for handling missing data may be inadequate. Here we propose using coarsened multinomial regression models to estimate cumulative and conditional rates of HIV transmission. Through simulation, we compare the proposed models to standard logistic models in terms of bias, mean squared error, coverage probability, and power. We consider a range of treatment effect and visit process scenarios, while including imperfect sensitivity of the assay and contamination of the endpoint due to early breastfeeding transmission. We illustrate the approach through analysis of data from a clinical trial designed to prevent perinatal transmission. Results: The proposed cumulative and conditional models performed well when compared to their logistic counterparts. Performance of the proposed cumulative model was particularly strong under scenarios where treatment was assumed to increase the risk of in utero transmission but decrease the risk of intrapartum and overall perinatal transmission and under scenarios designed to represent interim analyses. Power to estimate intrapartum and perinatal transmission was consistently higher for the proposed models. Conclusion: Coarsened multinomial regression models are preferred to standard logistic models for estimation of perinatal mother to child transmission of HIV, particularly when assays are missing or occur off-schedule for some infants.U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and Dept. of Health and Human Services (DHHS)

Operational research in Malawi: making a difference with cotrimoxazole preventive therapy in patients with tuberculosis and HIV.

BACKGROUND: In Malawi, high case fatality rates in patients with tuberculosis, who were also co-infected with HIV, and high early death rates in people living with HIV during the initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) adversely impacted on treatment outcomes for the national tuberculosis and ART programmes respectively. This article i) discusses the operational research that was conducted in the country on cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, ii) outlines the steps that were taken to translate these findings into national policy and practice, iii) shows how the implementation of cotrimoxazole preventive therapy for both TB patients and HIV-infected patients starting ART was associated with reduced death rates, and iv) highlights lessons that can be learnt for other settings and interventions. DISCUSSION: District and facility-based operational research was undertaken between 1999 and 2005 to assess the effectiveness of cotrimoxazole preventive therapy in reducing death rates in TB patients and subsequently in patients starting ART under routine programme conditions. Studies demonstrated significant reductions in case fatality in HIV-infected TB patients receiving cotrimoxazole and in HIV-infected patients about to start ART. Following the completion of research, the findings were rapidly disseminated nationally at stakeholder meetings convened by the Ministry of Health and internationally through conferences and peer-reviewed scientific publications. The Ministry of Health made policy changes based on the available evidence, following which there was countrywide distribution of the updated policy and guidelines. Policy was rapidly moved to practice with the development of monitoring tools, drug procurement and training packages. National programme performance improved which showed a significant decrease in case fatality rates in TB patients as well as a reduction in early death in people with HIV starting ART. SUMMARY: Key lessons for moving this research endeavour through to policy and practice were the importance of placing operational research within the programme, defining relevant questions, obtaining "buy-in" from national programme staff at the beginning of projects and having key actors or "policy entrepreneurs" to push forward the policy-making process. Ultimately, any change in policy and practice has to benefit patients, and the ultimate judge of success is whether treatment outcomes improve or not

Children Who Acquire HIV Infection Perinatally Are at Higher Risk of Early Death than Those Acquiring Infection through Breastmilk: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Assumptions about survival of HIV-infected children in Africa without antiretroviral therapy need to be updated to inform ongoing UNAIDS modelling of paediatric HIV epidemics among children. Improved estimates of infant survival by timing of HIV-infection (perinatally or postnatally) are thus needed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A pooled analysis was conducted of individual data of all available intervention cohorts and randomized trials on prevention of HIV mother-to-child transmission in Africa. Studies were right-censored at the time of infant antiretroviral initiation. Overall mortality rate per 1000 child-years of follow-up was calculated by selected maternal and infant characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival curves by child's HIV infection status and timing of HIV infection. Individual data from 12 studies were pooled, with 12,112 children of HIV-infected women. Mortality rates per 1,000 child-years follow-up were 39.3 and 381.6 for HIV-uninfected and infected children respectively. One year after acquisition of HIV infection, an estimated 26% postnatally and 52% perinatally infected children would have died; and 4% uninfected children by age 1 year. Mortality was independently associated with maternal death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.2, 95%CI 1.6-3.0), maternal CD4<350 cells/ml (1.4, 1.1-1.7), postnatal (3.1, 2.1-4.1) or peri-partum HIV-infection (12.4, 10.1-15.3). CONCLUSIONS/RESULTS: These results update previous work and inform future UNAIDS modelling by providing survival estimates for HIV-infected untreated African children by timing of infection. We highlight the urgent need for the prevention of peri-partum and postnatal transmission and timely assessment of HIV infection in infants to initiate antiretroviral care and support for HIV-infected children

HIV-Associated TB in An Giang Province, Vietnam, 2001–2004: Epidemiology and TB Treatment Outcomes

BACKGROUND: Mortality is high in HIV-infected TB patients, but few studies from Southeast Asia have documented the benefits of interventions, such as co-trimoxazole (CTX), in reducing mortality during TB treatment. To help guide policy in Vietnam, we studied the epidemiology of HIV-associated TB in one province and examined factors associated with outcomes, including the impact of CTX use. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We retrospectively abstracted data for all HIV-infected persons diagnosed with TB from 2001-2004 in An Giang, a province in southern Vietnam in which TB patients receive HIV counseling and testing. We used standard WHO definitions to classify TB treatment outcomes. We conducted multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for the composite outcome of death, default, or treatment failure during TB treatment. From 2001-2004, 637 HIV-infected TB patients were diagnosed in An Giang. Of these, 501 (79%) were male, 321 (50%) were aged 25-34 years, and the most common self-reported HIV risk factor was sex with a commercial sex worker in 221 (35%). TB was classified as smear-positive in 531 (83%). During TB treatment, 167 (26%) patients died, 9 (1%) defaulted, and 6 (1%) failed treatment. Of 454 patients who took CTX, 116 (26%) had an unsuccessful outcome compared with 33 (70%) of 47 patients who did not take CTX (relative risk, 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-0.5). Adjusting for male sex, rural residence, TB smear status and disease location, and the occurrence of adverse events during TB treatment in multivariate analysis, the benefit of CTX persisted (adjusted odds ratio for unsuccessful outcome 0.1; CI, 0.1-0.3). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In An Giang, Vietnam, HIV-associated TB was associated with poor TB treatment outcomes. Outcomes were significantly better in those taking CTX. This finding suggests that Vietnam should consider applying WHO recommendations to prescribe CTX to all HIV-infected TB patients

HIV-1 Drug Resistance Emergence among Breastfeeding Infants Born to HIV-Infected Mothers during a Single-Arm Trial of Triple-Antiretroviral Prophylaxis for Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission: A Secondary Analysis

Analysis of a substudy of the Kisumu breastfeeding trial by Clement Zeh and colleagues reveals the emergence of HIV drug resistance in HIV-positive infants born to HIV-infected mothers treated with antiretroviral drugs

Effect of trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole on the risk of malaria in HIV-infected Ugandan children living in an area of widespread antifolate resistance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TS) protects against malaria, but efficacy may be diminished as anti-folate resistance increases. This study assessed the incidence of falciparum malaria and the prevalence of resistance-conferring <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>mutations in HIV-infected children receiving daily TS and HIV-uninfected children not taking TS.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>Subjects were 292 HIV-infected and 517 uninfected children from two cohort studies in Kampala, Uganda observed from August 2006 to December 2008. Daily TS was given to HIV-infected, but not HIV-uninfected children and all participants were provided an insecticide-treated bed net. Standardized protocols were used to measure the incidence of malaria and identify markers of antifolate resistance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-five episodes of falciparum malaria occurred in HIV-infected and 491 episodes in uninfected children during the observation period. TS was associated with a protective efficacy of 80% (0.10 vs. 0.45 episodes per person year, p < 0.001), and efficacy did not vary over three consecutive 9.5 month periods (81%, 74%, 80% respectively, p = 0.506). The prevalences of <it>dhfr </it>51I, 108N, and 59R and <it>dhps </it>437G and 540E mutations were each over 90% among parasites infecting both HIV-infected and uninfected children. Prevalence of the <it>dhfr </it>164L mutation, which is associated with high-level resistance, was significantly higher in parasites from HIV-infected compared to uninfected children (8% vs. 1%, p = 0.001). Sequencing of the <it>dhfr </it>and <it>dhps </it>genes identified only one additional polymorphism, <it>dhps </it>581G, in 2 of 30 samples from HIV-infected and 0 of 54 samples from uninfected children.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Despite high prevalence of known anti-folate resistance-mediating mutations, TS prophylaxis was highly effective against malaria, but was associated with presence of <it>dhfr </it>164L mutation.</p

HIV care and treatment factors associated with improved survival during TB treatment in Thailand: an observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Southeast Asia, HIV-infected patients frequently die during TB treatment. Many physicians are reluctant to treat HIV-infected TB patients with anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and have questions about the added value of opportunistic infection prophylaxis to ART, the optimum ART regimen, and the benefit of initiating ART early during TB treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a multi-center observational study of HIV-infected patients newly diagnosed with TB in Thailand. Clinical data was collected from the beginning to the end of TB treatment. We conducted multivariable proportional hazards analysis to identify factors associated with death.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 667 HIV-infected TB patients enrolled, 450 (68%) were smear and/or culture positive. Death during TB treatment occurred in 112 (17%). In proportional hazards analysis, factors strongly associated with reduced risk of death were ART use (Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.07–0.36), fluconazole use (HR 0.34; CI 0.18–0.64), and co-trimoxazole use (HR 0.41; CI 0.20–0.83). Among 126 patients that initiated ART after TB diagnosis, the risk of death increased the longer that ART was delayed during TB treatment. Efavirenz- and nevirapine-containing ART regimens were associated with similar rates of adverse events and death.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Among HIV-infected patients living in Thailand, the single most important determinant of survival during TB treatment was use of ART. Controlled clinical trials are needed to confirm our findings that early ART initiation improves survival and that the choice of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor does not.</p

National policy development for cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in Malawi, Uganda and Zambia: the relationship between Context, Evidence and Links

BACKGROUND: Several frameworks have been constructed to analyse the factors which influence and shape the uptake of evidence into policy processes in resource poor settings, yet empirical analyses of health policy making in these settings are relatively rare. National policy making for cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole) preventive therapy in developing countries offers a pertinent case for the application of a policy analysis lens. The provision of cotrimoxazole as a prophylaxis is an inexpensive and highly efficacious preventative intervention in HIV infected individuals, reducing both morbidity and mortality among adults and children with HIV/AIDS, yet evidence suggests that it has not been quickly or evenly scaled-up in resource poor settings. METHODS: Comparative analysis was conducted in Malawi, Uganda and Zambia, using the case study approach. We applied the 'RAPID' framework developed by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), and conducted a total of 47 in-depth interviews across the three countries to examine the influence of context (including the influence of donor agencies), evidence (both local and international), and the links between researcher, policy makers and those seeking to influence the policy process. RESULTS: Each area of analysis was found to have an influence on the creation of national policy on cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) in all three countries. In relation to context, the following were found to be influential: government structures and their focus, donor interest and involvement, healthcare infrastructure and other uses of cotrimoxazole and related drugs in the country. In terms of the nature of the evidence, we found that how policy makers perceived the strength of evidence behind international recommendations was crucial (if evidence was considered weak then the recommendations were rejected). Further, local operational research results seem to have been taken up more quickly, while randomised controlled trials (the gold standard of clinical research) was not necessarily translated into policy so swiftly. Finally the links between different research and policy actors were of critical importance, with overlaps between researcher and policy maker networks crucial to facilitate knowledge transfer. Within these networks, in each country the policy development process relied on a powerful policy entrepreneur who helped get cotrimoxazole preventive therapy onto the policy agenda. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis underscores the importance of considering national level variables in the explanation of the uptake of evidence into national policy settings, and recognising how local policy makers interpret international evidence. Local priorities, the ways in which evidence was interpreted, and the nature of the links between policy makers and researchers could either drive or stall the policy process. Developing the understanding of these processes enables the explanation of the use (or non-use) of evidence in policy making, and potentially may help to shape future strategies to bridge the research-policy gaps and ultimately improve the uptake of evidence in decision making

Persistent High Burden of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in South African HIV-Infected Adults in the Era of an Antiretroviral Treatment Program

Highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) programs have been associated with declines in the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in industrialized countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate trends in IPD hospitalizations in HIV-infected adults in Soweto, South Africa, associated with up-scaling of the HAART program from 2003 to 2008.Laboratory-confirmed IPD cases were identified from 2003 through 2008 through an existing surveillance program. The period 2003-04 was designated as the early-HAART era, 2005-06 as the intermediate-HAART era and 2007-08 as the established-HAART era. The incidence of IPD was compared between the early-HAART and established-HAART eras in HIV-infected and-uninfected individuals.A total of 2,567 IPD cases among individuals older than 18 years were reported from 2003 through 2008. Overall incidence of IPD (per 100,000) did not change during the study period in HIV-infected adults (207.4 cases in the early-HAART and 214.0 cases in the established-HAART era; p = 0.55). IPD incidence, actually increased 1.16-fold (95% CI: 1.01; 1.62) in HIV-infected females between the early-and established-HAART eras (212.1 cases and 246.2 cases, respectively; p = 0.03). The incidence of IPD remained unchanged in HIV-uninfected adults across the three time periods.Despite a stable prevalence of HIV and the increased roll-out of HAART for treatment of AIDS patients in our setting, the burden of IPD has not decreased among HIV-infected adults. The study indicates a need for ongoing monitoring of disease and HAART program effectiveness to reduce opportunistic infections in African adults with HIV/AIDS, as well as the need to consider alternate strategies including pneumococcal conjugate vaccine immunization for the prevention of IPD in HIV-infected adults

Low HIV testing rates among tuberculosis patients in Kampala, Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV testing among tuberculosis patients is critical in improving morbidity and mortality as those found to be HIV positive will be offered a continuum of care including ART if indicated. We conducted a cross-sectional study in three Kampala City primary care clinics: to assess the level of HIV test uptake among newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients; to assess patient and health worker factors associated with HIV test uptake; and to determine factors associated with HIV test uptake at the primary care clinics</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Adult patients who had been diagnosed with smear-positive PTB at a primary care clinic or at the referral hospital and who were being treated at any of the three clinics were interviewed. Associations between having taken the test as the main outcome and explanatory variables were assessed by multivariate logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between April and October 2007, 112 adults were included in the study. An HIV test had been offered to 74 (66%). Of the 112 patients, 61 (82%) had accepted the test; 45 (74%) had eventually been tested; and 32 (29%) had received their test results.</p> <p>Patients who were <25 yeas old, female or unemployed, or had reported no previous HIV testing, were more likely to have been tested. The strongest predictor of having been tested was if patients had been diagnosed at the referral hospital compared to the city clinic (adjusted OR 24.2; 95% CI 6.7-87.7; p < 0.001). This primarily reflected an "opt-out" (uptake 94%) versus an "opt-in" (uptake 53%) testing policy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The overall HIV test uptake was surprisingly low at 40%. The HIV test uptake was significantly higher among TB patients who were identified at hospital, among females and in the unemployed.</p