A reduced-form approach to characterizing sulfate aerosol effects on climate in integrated assessment models. Final report

The objective of this study was to devise a methodology for estimating the spatial patterns of future climate change accounting for the effects of both greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols under a wide range of emissions scenarios, using the results of General Circulation Models

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration

Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO2 doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about 0.33 °C cooler than the mean of the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. In the companion paper (Part 2) of this study, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and the new RCP pathways

StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate-biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth's history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.Stuart C. Brown, Tom M. L. Wigley, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner and Damien A. Fordha

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Absolute Proper Motions to B~22.5: IV. Faint, Low Velocity White Dwarfs and the White Dwarf Population Density Law

The reduced proper motion diagram (RPMD) for a complete sample of faint stars with high accuracy proper motions in the North Galactic Pole field SA57 is investigated. Eight stars with very large reduced proper motions are identified as faint white dwarf candidates. We discriminate these white dwarf candidates from the several times more numerous QSOs based on proper motion and variability. We discuss the implausibility that these stars could be any kind of survey contaminant. If {\it bona fide} white dwarfs, the eight candidates found here represent a portion of the white dwarf population hitherto uninvestigated by previous surveys by virtue of the faint magnitudes and low proper motions. The newly discovered stars suggest a disk white dwarf scaleheight larger than the values of 250-350 pc typically assumed in assessments of the local white dwarf density. Both a <V/V_{max}> and a more complex maximum likelihood analysis of the spatial distribution of our likely thin disk white dwarfs yield scaleheights of 400-600 pc while at the same time give a reasonable match to the local white dwarf volume density found in other surveys. Our results could have interesting implications for white dwarfs as potential MACHO objects. We can place some direct constraints (albeit weak ones) on the contribution of halo white dwarfs to the dark matter of the Galaxy. Moreover, the elevated scale height that we measure for the thin disk could alter the interpretation of microlensing results to the extent of making white dwarfs untenable as the dominant MACHO contributor. (Abridged)Comment: 38 pages, 5 figures, to appear in April Ap

Detection of Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change

The objective of this report is to assemble and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for (1) detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and (2) validation of General Circulation Models

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics. To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments