Synchronisation of Policy Related Uncertainty, Financial Stress and Economic Activity in the USA

This study analyses the synchronisation of economic activity, financial stress and uncertainty in the USA by employing a wavelet-based approach of cohesion. Being innovative in the choice of the methodological framework as well as underlying factors of interest, we employed the monthly data on the policy-related uncertainty indexes, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and Kansas City Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index (KCFSI). Our key empirical findings suggest that the co-movements of policy uncertainty, financial stress and economic activity are frequencies as well as time-dependent. The uncertainty indices are found to be synchronised at lower and intermediate frequencies for all of the pairs. In the nexus between uncertainty and economic activity, financial stress plays a crucial role. Co-movement of the policy uncertainty is observed to be more pronounced during the crisis periods though at different frequencies which indicated the usefulness of the proposed framework to analyse the implications of contemporaneous policy uncertainty and financial stress for the real economy. Concomitantly this informs the policy efforts to address the financial and economic instabilities which may arise as a consequence of financial stress and policy uncertainty

Metabolic syndrome is associated with similar long-term prognosis in non-obese and obese patients. An analysis of 45 615 patients from the nationwide LIPIDOGRAM 2004-2015 cohort studies

Aims We aimed to evaluate the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and long-term all-cause mortality. Methods The LIPIDOGRAM studies were carried out in the primary care in Poland in 2004, 2006 and 2015. MetS was diagnosed based on the National Cholesterol Education Program, Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III) and Joint Interim Statement (JIS) criteria. The cohort was divided into four groups: non-obese patients without MetS, obese patients without MetS, non-obese patients with MetS and obese patients with MetS. Differences in all-cause mortality was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Results 45,615 participants were enrolled (mean age 56.3, standard deviation: 11.8 years; 61.7% female). MetS was diagnosed in 14,202 (31%) by NCEP/ATP III criteria, and 17,216 (37.7%) by JIS criteria. Follow-up was available for 44,620 (97.8%, median duration 15.3 years) patients. MetS was associated with increased mortality risk among the obese (hazard ratio, HR: 1.88 [95% CI, 1.79-1.99] and HR: 1.93 [95% CI 1.82-2.04], according to NCEP/ATP III and JIS criteria, respectively) and non-obese individuals (HR: 2.11 [95% CI 1.85-2.40] and 1.7 [95% CI, 1.56-1.85] according to NCEP/ATP III and JIS criteria respectively). Obese patients without MetS had a higher mortality risk than non-obese patients without MetS (HR: 1.16 [95% CI 1.10-1.23] and HR: 1.22 [95%CI 1.15-1.30], respectively in subgroups with NCEP/ATP III and JIS criteria applied). Conclusions MetS is associated with increased all-cause mortality risk in non-obese and obese patients. In patients without MetS obesity remains significantly associated with mortality. The concept of metabolically healthy obesity should be revised