Analysing the effect of climate policies on poverty through employment channels

The recently proposed Green Deals and "building back better" plans have affirmed the importance to make green transitions inclusive. This is particularly related to the labour market, which may witness significant changes. Empirically, this issue has until now received limited attention. The links between poverty and climate change are explored mainly through the lenses of climate change adaptation, or via the effects of rising energy prices on the purchasing power of poor households. We aim to address this gap by using results from a simulation of the global energy transition based on the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives required to meet the 2-degree target, and compare this to the 6-degree baseline scenario. The simulation with a multi-regional input-output model finds that, overall, this transition results in a small net job increase of 0.3% globally, with cross-country heterogeneity. We complement this macro-level analysis with cross-country household data to draw implications of the effects on poverty through labour market outcomes. The few job losses will be concentrated in specific industries (manufacturing, electricity and construction), while new jobs will be created in industries that currently witness relatively in-work poverty rates, such as construction. We show that high in-work poverty in the industries of interest, and especially in middle-income countries, is often associated with low skills and an insufficient reach of social protection mechanisms. We conclude that green transitions must ensure that the jobs created are indeed decent including fair wages, adequate working conditions, sufficient social protection measures, and accessible to the vulnerable and poorest households.publishedVersio

The role of sustainability characteristics in the diffusion of renewable energy technologies

This paper aims to investigate the role of sustainability factors in the diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies. A combined economic innovation-diffusion model that accounts for additional sustainability aspects is proposed. Two and three-stage least square methods were used for the empirical estimation, and the results were compared to a maximum entropy econometric estimation. The findings indicate that sustainability characteristics (i.e., cell efficiency) have a statistically significant positive effect on installed capacity in all solar PV technologies under analysis. Results show that multijunction PV modules have a learning rate of 17.1%, while Monojunction and the global aggregate have similar learning rates of 19.5% and 19%, respectively. Thin film PV modules have learning rates of 17.9% for the period 1991–2019. Cost reductions in solar PV modules can be largely attributed to learning-by-doing activities, the effects of learning by searching are ambiguous and depend both on the estimation methodology and the period under analysis. The study recognizes the difficulty in measuring sustainability characteristics, such as social aspects of the SDGs or indirect environmental implications but suggest that qualitative research can complement the quantitative analysis.publishedVersio

Faster, broader, and deeper! Suggested directions for research on net-zero transitions

The growing attention to the political goal of achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century reflects past failures to alter the trajectory of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a consequence, the world now needs to decarbonize all systems and sectors at an unprecedented pace. This commentary discusses how the net-zero challenge presents transition scholarship with four enhanced research challenges that merit more attention: (1) the speed, (2) breadth and (3) depth of transitions as well as (4) tensions and interactions between these.Faster, broader, and deeper! Suggested directions for research on net-zero transitionspublishedVersio

Identifying emission hotspots for low carbon technology transfers

Data on consumption-based CO2 emissions has become increasingly available over the past years. These data raise the awareness of the link between final goods and the environmental pollution caused by upstream production processes. Consumers of final products learn where in the world CO2 was emitted along the upstream production chain. For producers of final products these data provide benchmarks for total CO2 emitted in upstream production processes. These are used together with an extended version of the inverse important coefficient methodology to identify ‘emission hotspots’. ‘Emission hotspots’ are defined as countries/industries where a bulk of the upstream emissions occur and where a change in technology brings about the largest decrease in upstream emissions. This knowledge provides a basis for well-targeted technology transfers to clean up the upstream production chain, thus reducing the emission footprint of final goods production. The highest impact overall in a significant number global value chains analyzed here would be replacing upstream use of coal electricity by low carbon electricity. These results support the call of the ‘Powering Past Coal Alliance’ at the COP23 of ending the use of coal power sooner rather than later

The Future is Circular - Circular Economy and Critical Minerals for the Green Transition

The transition towards a net-zero economy will require a large-scale implementation of low-carbon technologies. Concerns have been raised whether the availability of minerals will be a bottleneck for the green transition, prompting discussion about the opening new mining frontiers for supplying these minerals. One of the most controversial options is the exploration of minerals in the deep sea. Critical minerals are those that have a significant economic importance and that have risks to their supply. Many low-carbon technologies currently depend on these critical minerals. The total demand for minerals and whether critical minerals will become a challenge for the green transition depending on the path we take. The technological choices for decarbonisation in the coming decades are highly uncertain and depend on a wide range of factors such as prices, resource constraints, social and environmental standards, and innovation and technological development. How each of these factors will develop in the medium and long term and how they will interact with each other cannot be predicted. This report looks at the mineral demand for a net-zero emissions energy system, based on the technological decarbonisation path of the Net Zero by 2050 scenario developed by the International Energy Agency. It focuses on seven critical minerals for the green transition: lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, rare earth elements, platinum and copper. These are among the most discussed in studies on mineral bottleneck for new energy technologies and for which demand is expected to grow many-fold. This report looks at the challenge of mineral availability through different perspectives. First, how will technology choices and technology development in the next decades affect total mineral demand? Second, how can circular economy strategies reduce the demand for minerals and also increase the recovery and use of recycled minerals? And finally, what does it mean to have a responsible supply of minerals for the green transition?publishedVersio

Analysing the effect of climate policies on poverty through employment channels

The recently proposed Green Deals and "building back better" plans have affirmed the importance to make green transitions inclusive. This is particularly related to the labour market, which may witness significant changes. Empirically, this issue has until now received limited attention. The links between poverty and climate change are explored mainly through the lenses of climate change adaptation, or via the effects of rising energy prices on the purchasing power of poor households. We aim to address this gap by using results from a simulation of the global energy transition based on the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives required to meet the 2-degree target, and compare this to the 6-degree baseline scenario. The simulation with a multi-regional input-output model finds that, overall, this transition results in a small net job increase of 0.3% globally, with cross-country heterogeneity. We complement this macro-level analysis with cross-country household data to draw implications of the effects on poverty through labour market outcomes. The few job losses will be concentrated in specific industries (manufacturing, electricity and construction), while new jobs will be created in industries that currently witness relatively in-work poverty rates, such as construction. We show that high in-work poverty in the industries of interest, and especially in middle-income countries, is often associated with low skills and an insufficient reach of social protection mechanisms. We conclude that green transitions must ensure that the jobs created are indeed decent including fair wages, adequate working conditions, sufficient social protection measures, and accessible to the vulnerable and poorest households

Global Circular Economy Scenario in a Multiregional Input-Output Framework

“This document is the Author’s version of a Submitted Work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Science and Technology, copyright © American Chemical Society after peer review. To access the final edited and published work see http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b01208In a resource-constrained world of an estimated 10 billion people in 2050 with the same material aspirations of today’s high-income nations, there is no question: The future economy will need to be circular. From a policy perspective, the question is whether averting catastrophic environmental impacts through an accelerated transition to a global circular economy can also deliver sustained growth and jobs. The adoption of circular economy measures will have a range of effects on both domestic and foreign supply chains. Multiregional input–output (MRIO) analysis models the interdependencies between industries and within and between countries as well as between intermediate and final goods producers and consumers. It provides a useful toolbox for assessing social, environmental, and economy-wide impacts of the adoption of the circular economy. We project the MRIO database EXIOBASE to 2030 on the basis of the exogenously given parameters of the International Energy Agency’s Energy Technology Perspective (IEA ETP) 6-degree scenario. We compare this business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an alternative circular economy scenario. The circular economy scenario considers more recycling, reducing (material efficiency increase), repair, and reuse in relation to the BAU scenario. The adoption of circular economy measures has diverse impacts on the economy and environmental pressures. Global material extraction is reduced by about 10% compared to the baseline, while the impact on employment is small but positive. In particular, the shift from resource extracting sectors to the service sector will provide more opportunities for high-skilled and female workers.acceptedVersio

Kartlegging av grønn konkurransekraft i Trondheimsregionen

Denne rapporten svarer på oppdrag 'Grønn Konkurransekraft i Trondheimsregionen' med oppdragsgivere Trondheim kommune (TK) og Trondheimsregionen (TREG). Foreliggende leveranse gir en oversikt over eksisterende Grønt næringsliv i Trondheimsregionen basert på kvantitative og kvalitative analyser, og setter dette i et nasjonalt og Europeisk perspektiv. Det er foretatt en gjennomgang av mulige indikatorer og gjort en gjennomgang av disse, foreslått hvilke som kan brukes. Til slutt er det presentert noen muligheter for videre arbeid for styrking av Grønn konkurransekraft i regionen (Trondheimsregionen oppdragsgiver). Ulike økonomiske og miljømessige faktorer bør kvantifiseres for å måle grønn konkurransekraft. Vi anbefaler å bruke 15 indikatorer i fem ulike kategorier (økonomi og miljø, økonomisk struktur, arbeidsmarked og befolkning, teknologi og innovasjon, grønne strategier) pluss seks indikatorer som gir bakgrunnsinformasjoner om regionen. Datatilgjengelighet varierer, men vi mener at robustheten i de foreslåtte metodene for å estimere indikatorene er tilstrekkelig god

Kartlegging av grønn konkurransekraft i Trondheimsregionen

Denne rapporten svarer på oppdrag 'Grønn Konkurransekraft i Trondheimsregionen' med oppdragsgivere Trondheim kommune (TK) og Trondheimsregionen (TREG). Foreliggende leveranse gir en oversikt over eksisterende Grønt næringsliv i Trondheimsregionen basert på kvantitative og kvalitative analyser, og setter dette i et nasjonalt og Europeisk perspektiv. Det er foretatt en gjennomgang av mulige indikatorer og gjort en gjennomgang av disse, foreslått hvilke som kan brukes. Til slutt er det presentert noen muligheter for videre arbeid for styrking av Grønn konkurransekraft i regionen (Trondheimsregionen oppdragsgiver). Ulike økonomiske og miljømessige faktorer bør kvantifiseres for å måle grønn konkurransekraft. Vi anbefaler å bruke 15 indikatorer i fem ulike kategorier (økonomi og miljø, økonomisk struktur, arbeidsmarked og befolkning, teknologi og innovasjon, grønne strategier) pluss seks indikatorer som gir bakgrunnsinformasjoner om regionen. Datatilgjengelighet varierer, men vi mener at robustheten i de foreslåtte metodene for å estimere indikatorene er tilstrekkelig god

Framework conditions, policies and projections for clean energy export from Norway

This report aims at providing an overview of the main policies, instruments and uncertainties that will influence the potential for clean energy export from Norway to Europe in the coming years. A large portion of the Norwegian economy is related to the export of fossil fuels and approximately 80% of our goods exports go to the EU. The EU aims at achieving a net-zero emission economy by 2050, which is likely to affect Norwegian exports. Significant changes in our energy system will be required to meet emission reduction targets and low emission energy carriers will play an important role in the future.publishedVersio