Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand

Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971 to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.

Development of a High-Value Agricultural Product Cluster to Increase Income for Rural Farmers : Case Study of Bresse Chicken Cluster in Northern Thailand

International audienc

Modelling and forecasting tourism from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spatial aggregation

Tourism is one of the key service industries in Thailand, with a 5.27% share of Gross Domestic Product in 2003. Since 2000, international tourist arrivals. particularly those from East Asia, to Thailand have been on a continuous upward trend. Tourism forecasts can be made based on previous observations, so that historical analysis of tourist arrivals can provide a useful understanding of inbound trips and the behaviour of trends in foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand. As tourism is seasonal, a good forecast is required for stakeholders in the industry to manage risk. Previous research on tourism forecasts has typically been based on annual and monthly data analysis, while few past empirical tourism studies using the Box-Jenkins approach have taken account of pre-testing for seasonal unit roots based on Franses [P.H. Franses, Seasonality, nonstationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series, International Journal of Forecasting 7 (1991) 199-208] and Beaulieu and Miron [J.J. Beaulieu, J.A. Miron, Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data, Journal of Econometrics 55 (1993) 305-328] framework. An analysis of the time series of tourism demand, specifically monthly tourist arrivals from six major countries in East Asia to Thailand, from January 1971 to December 2005 is examined. This paper analyses stationary and non-stationary tourist arrivals series by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation. model selection and forecasting. Various Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and seasonal ARIMA models are estimated, with the tourist arrivals series showing seasonal patterns. The fitted ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA models forecast tourist arrivals from East Asia very well for the period 2006(1)-2008(1). Total monthly and annual forecasts can be obtained through temporal and spatial aggregation. (C) 2008 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Development of a High-Value Agricultural Product Cluster to Increase Income for Rural Farmers : Case Study of Bresse Chicken Cluster in Northern Thailand

International audienc

Policies for agricultural sustainability in northern Thailand

A country case study reportAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:m02/25662 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreSIGLEGBUnited Kingdo

Modern Food Retailers and Traditional Markets in Developing Countries: Comparing Quality, Prices, and Competition Strategies in Thailand

Supermarkets and hypermarkets are expanding rapidly in many developing countries. While consequences for farmers and consumers were analyzed recently, little is known about the implications for traditional retail formats such as wet markets. Using data from a market survey in Thailand and hedonic regressions, we analyze quality and prices for fresh vegetables from different retail outlets. Compared to wet markets, modern retailers sell higher quality at higher prices, indicating that they are primarily targeting better-off consumers, and not directly competing for the same market segments. Yet there are signs that modern and traditional markets will gradually converge. Policy implications are discussed. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.