490 research outputs found
Treatment Effects
This essay discusses the issues of identification and estimation of the average treatment effect and the average effect of treatment on the treated
Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models Without Additivity
This paper investigates identification and inference in a nonparametric structural model with instrumental variables and non-additive errors. We allow for non-additive errors because the unobserved heterogeneity in marginal returns that often motivates concerns about endogeneity of choices requires objective functions that are non-additive in observed and unobserved components. We formulate several independence and monotonicity conditions that are sufficient for identification of a number of objects of interest, including the average conditional response, the average structural function, as well as the full structural response function. For inference we propose a two-step series estimator. The first step consists of estimating the conditional distribution of the endogenous regressor given the instrument. In the second step the estimated conditional distribution function is used as a regressor in a nonlinear control function approach. We establish rates of convergence, asymptotic normality, and give a consistent asymptotic variance estimator.
Automatic Debiased Machine Learning of Causal and Structural Effects
Many causal and structural effects depend on regressions. Examples include
average treatment effects, policy effects, average derivatives, regression
decompositions, economic average equivalent variation, and parameters of
economic structural models. The regressions may be high dimensional. Plugging
machine learners into identifying equations can lead to poor inference due to
bias and/or model selection. This paper gives automatic debiasing for
estimating equations and valid asymptotic inference for the estimators of
effects of interest. The debiasing is automatic in that its construction uses
the identifying equations without the full form of the bias correction and is
performed by machine learning. Novel results include convergence rates for
Lasso and Dantzig learners of the bias correction, primitive conditions for
asymptotic inference for important examples, and general conditions for GMM. A
variety of regression learners and identifying equations are covered. Automatic
debiased machine learning (Auto-DML) is applied to estimating the average
treatment effect on the treated for the NSW job training data and to estimating
demand elasticities from Nielsen scanner data while allowing preferences to be
correlated with prices and income
Treatment effects (in Russian)
This essay discusses the issues of identification and estimation of the average treatment effect and the average effect of treatment on the treated.
Inference in Linear Regression Models with Many Covariates and Heteroskedasticity
The linear regression model is widely used in empirical work in Economics,
Statistics, and many other disciplines. Researchers often include many
covariates in their linear model specification in an attempt to control for
confounders. We give inference methods that allow for many covariates and
heteroskedasticity. Our results are obtained using high-dimensional
approximations, where the number of included covariates are allowed to grow as
fast as the sample size. We find that all of the usual versions of Eicker-White
heteroskedasticity consistent standard error estimators for linear models are
inconsistent under this asymptotics. We then propose a new heteroskedasticity
consistent standard error formula that is fully automatic and robust to both
(conditional)\ heteroskedasticity of unknown form and the inclusion of possibly
many covariates. We apply our findings to three settings: parametric linear
models with many covariates, linear panel models with many fixed effects, and
semiparametric semi-linear models with many technical regressors. Simulation
evidence consistent with our theoretical results is also provided. The proposed
methods are also illustrated with an empirical application
A symptotic Bias for GMM and GEL Estimators with Estimated Nuisance Parameter
This papers studies and compares the asymptotic bias of GMM and generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimators in the presence of estimated nuisance parameters. We consider cases in which the nuisance parameter is estimated from independent and identical samples. A simulation experiment is conducted for covariance structure models. Empirical likelihood offers much reduced mean and median bias, root mean squared error and mean absolute error, as compared with two-step GMM and other GEL methods. Both analytical and bootstrap bias-adjusted two-step GMM estima-tors are compared. Analytical bias-adjustment appears to be a serious competitor to bootstrap methods in terms of finite sample bias, root mean squared error and mean absolute error. Finite sample variance seems to be little affected
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