A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends in tropical cyclone rapid intensification in several basins. However, a robust anthropogenic signal in global intensification trends and the physical drivers of intensification trends have yet to be identified. To address these knowledge gaps, here we compare the observed trends in intensification and tropical cyclone environmental parameters to simulated natural variability in a high-resolution global climate model. In multiple basins and the global dataset, we detect a significant increase in intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments around tropical cyclones have become more favorable for intensification, and climate models show anthropogenic warming has significantly increased the probability of these changes

How adolescents who cut themselves differ from those who take overdoses

The aims of this study were to identify in what ways adolescents who cut themselves differ from those who take overdoses, and to investigate the role of contagion in these behaviours. Data from an anonymous self-report questionnaire survey of 6,020 adolescents in 41 schools were analysed. Comparison of 220 adolescents who reported self-cutting in the previous year with 86 who had taken overdoses in the previous year as the sole method of deliberate self-harm (DSH) showed that far more of those who cut themselves had friends who had also engaged in DSH in the same period (OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.5–5.3, P < 0.001), and fewer had sought help from friends before cutting (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3–0.9, P < 0.02). Self-cutting usually involved less premeditation. Analyses at both the individual and school level showed that the association between engaging in DSH and exposure to DSH amongst peers was largely confined to girls who cut themselves. There are important differences between adolescents who cut themselves and those who take overdoses. Contagion may be an important factor in DSH by adolescents, especially in girls who cut themselves. These findings are relevant to the design of prevention and treatment programmes

Impact on mortality and cancer incidence rates of using random invitation from population registers for recruitment to trials

Background: Participants in trials evaluating preventive interventions such as screening are on average healthier than the general population. To decrease this 'healthy volunteer effect' (HVE) women were randomly invited from population registers to participate in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and not allowed to self refer. This report assesses the extent of the HVE still prevalent in UKCTOCS and considers how certain shortfalls in mortality and incidence can be related to differences in socioeconomic status.Methods: Between 2001 and 2005, 202 638 postmenopausal women joined the trial out of 1 243 312 women randomly invited from local health authority registers. The cohort was flagged for deaths and cancer registrations and mean follow up at censoring was 5.55 years for mortality, and 2.58 years for cancer incidence. Overall and cause-specific Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and Standardised Incidence Ratios (SIRs) were calculated based on national mortality (2005) and cancer incidence (2006) statistics. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2007) was used to assess the link between socioeconomic status and mortality/cancer incidence, and differences between the invited and recruited populations.Results: The SMR for all trial participants was 37%. By subgroup, the SMRs were higher for: younger age groups, extremes of BMI distribution and with each increasing year in trial. There was a clear trend between lower socioeconomic status and increased mortality but less pronounced with incidence. While the invited population had higher mean IMD scores (more deprived) than the national average, those who joined the trial were less deprived.Conclusions: Recruitment to screening trials through invitation from population registers does not prevent a pronounced HVE on mortality. The impact on cancer incidence is much smaller. Similar shortfalls can be expected in other screening RCTs and it maybe prudent to use the various mortality and incidence rates presented as guides for calculating event rates and power in RCTs involving women

Degradation of haloaromatic compounds

An ever increasing number of halogenated organic compounds has been produced by industry in the last few decades. These compounds are employed as biocides, for synthetic polymers, as solvents, and as synthetic intermediates. Production figures are often incomplete, and total production has frequently to be extrapolated from estimates for individual countries. Compounds of this type as a rule are highly persistent against biodegradation and belong, as "recalcitrant" chemicals, to the class of so-called xenobiotics. This term is used to characterise chemical substances which have no or limited structural analogy to natural compounds for which degradation pathways have evolved over billions of years. Xenobiotics frequently have some common features. e.g. high octanol/water partitioning coefficients and low water solubility which makes for a high accumulation ratio in the biosphere (bioaccumulation potential). Recalcitrant compounds therefore are found accumulated in mammals, especially in fat tissue, animal milk supplies and also in human milk. Highly sophisticated analytical techniques have been developed for the detection of organochlorines at the trace and ultratrace level