Addressing the cost of living from a poverty perspective requires a multipronged approach

In this article, Adam Tinson summarises a report into how those in poverty experience the cost of living. It finds that the interaction between poverty and the cost of living is complicated and multi-faceted. The response will therefore require a range of action from regulators, private companies, consumers and the third sector

What does the Rochester & Strood by-election mean for British politics?

UKIP’s victory in the Rochester & Strood by-election gives the party national credibility, writes Paul Whiteley, and their recent increase in membership gives them the ability to effectively target key seats in the constituency campaigns in the general election. Electorally speaking, however, the division on the right is much more significant than the division on the left, even if UKIP is winning discontented working class voters to their cause

The ‘Devo Manc’ proposals represent centralisation on steroids

Robin HambletonThe government has attempted to portray the ‘Devo Manc’ proposals for governance change in Manchester as a bold step towards the decentralisation of power in England. Here, Robin Hambleton, explains how the proposals actually represent an extraordinary boost to top down government in a state that is already one of the most centralised in the Western world

How accurate are the polls when forecasting election outcomes well into the future?

Paul Whiteley correlates Labour and Conservative vote intentions data with the actual polling day results in all UK general elections since 1945. Among his findings is the fact that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support

Why a resurgence of democracy around the world would greatly help in the battle against climate change

Paul Whiteley highlights the link between a country’s wealth and democratic status and its CO2 emissions

Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

The British Polling Council recently published their report about what went wrong with the polls in the 2015 general election. The report dismissed problems associated with voter registration, question wording, postal voting and mode of interviewing and opted for unrepresentative samples as the key factor in explaining what happened. Here, Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke make the case for examining another factor: respondents who don’t tell the truth

Government Performance and Life Satisfaction in Contemporary Britain

This paper investigates relationships between public policy outcomes and life satisfaction in contemporary Britain. Monthly national surveys gathered between April 2004 and December 2008 are used to analyze the impact of policy delivery both at the micro and macro levels, the former relating to citizens personal experiences, and the latter to cognitive evaluations of and affective reactions to the effectiveness of policies across the country as a whole. The impact of salient political events and changes in economic context involving the onset of a major financial crisis also are considered. Analyses reveal that policy outcomes, especially microlevel ones, significantly influence life satisfaction. The effects of both micro- and macrolevel outcomes involve both affective reactions to policy delivery and cognitive judgments about government performance. Controlling for these and other factors, the broader economic context in which policy judgments are made also influences life satisfaction. © 2010 Southern Political Science Association

How do the Scots achieve independence given the volatility in voters’ attitudes?

Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke explain recent changes in the patterns of support for Scottish independence. On the one hand, the financial and mental health implications of the pandemic have increased support for independence, as people want things to change. On the other hand, a number of recent developments have led to an upsurge in Britons thinking that the UK was right to leave the EU, which in turn helps to explain the loss of support for independence

Economic inequality can help predict Covid-19 deaths in the US

COVID-19 has not affected everywhere in the US equally, there are significant disparities in Covid-related illnesses between the states. In new research which analyses the relationship between COVID-19 and economic, social and demographic factors, Harold Clarke and Paul Whiteley find that those states with greater income inequality are more likely to see coronavirus cases and related deaths