Paul Whiteley highlights the link between a country’s wealth and democratic status and its CO2 emissions

Whiteley, Paul

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Why	a	resurgence	of	democracy	around	the	worldwould	greatly	help	in	the	battle	against	climatechangePaul	Whiteley	highlights	the	link	between	a	country’s	wealth	and	democratic	status	and	its	CO2emissions.Britain	is	hosting	the	COP26	climate	change	conference	in	Glasgow	and	there	has	been	noshortage	of	warnings	about	the	dire	consequences	of	allowing	the	average	rise	in	globaltemperatures	to	exceed	1.5	degrees	centigrade.	But	there	are	formidable	barriers	to	achievingthis,	including	the	increasingly	strained	relations	between	the	United	States	and	China,	the	twobiggest	polluters.	There	is	also	the	perennial	problem	of	leaders	like	Jair	Bolsonaro,	the	President	of	Brazil,	whoeither	denies	the	problem	or	in	any	case	would	like	everyone	else	to	deal	with	it.However,	there	is	also	an	issue	which	is	often	unrecognised	in	these	debates,	something	which	can	be	describedas	the	‘climate	change	trap’.	This	is	the	fact	that	countries	need	to	achieve	a	certain	level	of	development	beforethey	can	afford	to	tackle	the	issue.	While	poor	countries	do	not	emit	much	in	the	way	of	greenhouse	gases,	as	theygrow	richer	their	emissions	rapidly	increase.	The	transition	from	poverty	to	middle	income	status	for	a	countrymeans	concentrating	on	investment	and	development,	leaving	little	in	the	way	of	resources	to	deal	with	climatechange.	Plans	have	been	put	in	place	to	compensate	developing	countries	to	the	extent	of	$100	billion	a	year,	butunfortunately	they	have	not	been	delivered.	In	addition,	while	these	sums	appear	large,	they	are	also	a	fraction	ofwhat	is	actually	needed.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Why a resurgence of democracy around the world would greatly help in the battle against climate change Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2021-11-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/climate-change-trap/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/Figure	1	illustrates	how	the	climate	change	trap	works.	It	shows	the	effect	of	Gross	Domestic	Produce	per	capita	oncarbon	dioxide	emissions	per	capita	in	2018.		The	data	is	for	178	countries	and	comes	from	the	World	Bank.	Theaverage	level	of	per	capita	emissions	across	these	countries	in	that	year	was	4.27	tons.	However,	it	varied	widelyfrom	0.03	tons	in	the	Democratic	Republic	of	the	Congo	to	32.4	in	Qatar.	The	summary	curve	shows	that	emissionsrise	rapidly	as	countries	climb	out	of	poverty	and	then	it	tends	to	level	off	when	they	reach	middle	income	status.The	bunching	of	low-income	countries	around	the	summary	curve	shows	that	if	they	want	to	climb	out	of	poverty,they	have	to	increase	carbon	emissions.	But	as	they	reach	middle-income	or	high-income	status,	they	have	a	lotmore	choice	about	how	to	deal	with	emissions.	This	produces	large	variations	across	countries.	This	is	illustrated	bythe	examples	of	Germany	and	Canada,	which	had	rather	similar	GDP	per	capita	incomes	of	$47,787	and	$46,455respectively	in	2018,	yet	Germany’s	emissions	were	8.6	tons	of	CO2	per	capita	whereas	Canada’s	was	15.6	tons,almost	twice	as	much.Overall,	China	is	the	biggest	polluter	on	the	planet	followed	by	the	United	States	but	viewed	in	per	capita	termsChina	had	a	GDP	of	$9,976	in	2018,	whereas	the	US’s	was	$63,064.	This	creates	a	significant	problem	since	Chinais	some	distance	from	becoming	a	high-income	country.	It	is	still	a	long	way	from	the	sweet	spot	where	it	becomesmuch	easier	to	tackle	emissions.Of	course,	tackling	this	issue	is	a	matter	of	political	will	as	much	as	having	resources	to	deal	with	it.	Equally,	thereare	rich	countries	which	have	the	resources	but	not	the	will.	As	Figure	1	shows,	Qatar	is	a	large	outlier;	SaudiArabia	and	the	United	Arab	Emirates	are	also	in	this	group	of	high	emitters.	But	it	is	also	true	that	the	United	States,Australia,	and	Canada	all	produced	more	than	15	tons	per	capita	of	greenhouse	gases	in	2018.	In	contrast,	Britainproduced	6.4	tons	per	capita	which	is	above	average	but	not	by	as	much	as	these	other	Anglo-Saxon	modelcountries.One	of	the	ways	of	improving	the	situation	is	to	promote	democracy.	We	know	that	democracies	have	fared	muchbetter	at	dealing	with	the	COVID-19	pandemic	than	have	autocratic	governments.	So	how	have	democracies	copedwith	climate	change	even	though	some	of	them	are	high	emitters?	The	Freedom	House	think	tank	classify	regimesacross	the	world	in	relation	to	their	democratic	characteristics.	This	is	judged	by	factors	like	the	existence	offreedom	of	speech,	free	and	fair	elections,	the	right	for	citizens	to	participate	in	politics,	and	government	respect	forthe	rule	of	law.	They	classify	all	countries	into	three	categories:	authoritarian,	partially	authoritarian	and	democratic.Figure	2	examines	the	percentage	change	in	tons	of	CO2	emissions	per	capita	across	the	world	between	1990	and2018	using	the	Freedom	House	categories.	Overall,	emissions	rose	by	nearly	79%	over	this	period,	but	there	werehuge	differences	between	democracies	and	authoritarian	regimes.	In	the	authoritarian	regimes,	which	includedcountries	like	Russia	and	China,	emissions	rose	by	nearly	112%.	In	partial	authoritarian	regimes,	like	Indonesia,	theincrease	was	almost	the	same	at	just	over	110%.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Why a resurgence of democracy around the world would greatly help in the battle against climate change Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2021-11-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/climate-change-trap/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/However,	in	democracies	the	increase	was	just	under	29%.	Of	course,	other	factors	are	at	work	in	explaining	this,but	the	existence	of	a	democratic	regime	really	makes	a	difference.	This	is	partly	because	democratic	governmentsare	more	responsive	to	demands	from	their	people	to	do	something	about	environmental	degradation	and	pollution.This	often	becomes	a	serious	issue	in	rapidly	growing	countries	and	authoritarian	regimes	can	more	easily	ignore	itin	pursuit	of	other	goals,	such	as	growth	at	all	costs.The	Freedom	House	data	shows	that	democracies	have	been	on	the	retreat	over	the	last	couple	of	decades.	Theirrecent	report	shows	that	since	2005,	the	number	of	authoritarian	countries	has	increased	and	the	number	ofdemocracies	has	declined.	The	implication	is	that	if	there	was	a	resurgence	of	democracy	around	the	world,	thiswould	greatly	help	in	the	battle	against	climate	change.____________________About	the	AuthorPaul	Whiteley	is	Professor	in	the	Department	of	Government	at	the	University	of	Essex.			Photo	by	Kelly	Sikkema	on	Unsplash.British Politics and Policy at LSE: Why a resurgence of democracy around the world would greatly help in the battle against climate change Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2021-11-04Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/climate-change-trap/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/

Why a resurgence of democracy around the world would greatly help in the battle against climate change

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Why a resurgence of democracy around the world would greatly help in the battle against climate change

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