The impact of prior information on estimates of disease transmissibility using Bayesian tools

The basic reproductive number (R₀) and the distribution of the serial interval (SI) are often used to quantify transmission during an infectious disease outbreak. In this paper, we present estimates of R₀ and SI from the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong and Singapore, and the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in South Africa using methods that expand upon an existing Bayesian framework. This expanded framework allows for the incorporation of additional information, such as contact tracing or household data, through prior distributions. The results for the R₀ and the SI from the influenza outbreak in South Africa were similar regardless of the prior information (R0 = 1.36-1.46, μ = 2.0-2.7, μ = mean of the SI). The estimates of R₀ and μ for the SARS outbreak ranged from 2.0-4.4 and 7.4-11.3, respectively, and were shown to vary depending on the use of contact tracing data. The impact of the contact tracing data was likely due to the small number of SARS cases relative to the size of the contact tracing sample

Estimating the reproductive number in the presence of spatial heterogeneity of transmission patterns

Background: Estimates of parameters for disease transmission in large-scale infectious disease outbreaks are often obtained to represent large groups of people, providing an average over a potentially very diverse area. For control measures to be more effective, a measure of the heterogeneity of the parameters is desirable. Methods: We propose a novel extension of a network-based approach to estimating the reproductive number. With this we can incorporate spatial and/or demographic information through a similarity matrix. We apply this to the 2009 Influenza pandemic in South Africa to understand the spatial variability across provinces. We explore the use of five similarity matrices to illustrate their impact on the subsequent epidemic parameter estimates. Results: When treating South Africa as a single entity with homogeneous transmission characteristics across the country, the basic reproductive number, R0, (and imputation range) is 1.33 (1.31, 1.36). When fitting a new model for each province with no inter-province connections this estimate varies little (1.23-1.37). Using the proposed method with any of the four similarity measures yields an overall R0 that varies little across the four new models (1.33 to 1.34). However, when allowed to vary across provinces, the estimated R0 is greater than one consistently in only two of the nine provinces, the most densely populated provinces of Gauteng and Western Cape. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the spatial heterogeneity of influenza transmission was compelling in South Africa during the 2009 pandemic. This variability makes a qualitative difference in our understanding of the epidemic. While the cause of this fluctuation might be partially due to reporting differences, there is substantial evidence to warrant further investigation

Determining the dynamics of influenza transmission by age

Background: It is widely accepted that influenza transmission dynamics vary by age; however methods to quantify the reproductive number by age group are limited. We introduce a simple method to estimate the reproductive number by modifying the method originally proposed by Wallinga and Teunis and using existing information on contact patterns between age groups. We additionally perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the potential impact of differential healthcare seeking patterns by age. We illustrate this method using data from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa. Results: Our results are consistent with others in showing decreased transmission with age. We show that results can change markedly when we make the account for differential healthcare seeking behaviors by age. Conclusions: We show substantial heterogeneity in transmission by age group during the Influenza A H1N1 pandemic in South Africa. This information can greatly assist in targeting interventions and implementing social distancing measures

The parasite cytokine mimic <i>Hp</i>-TGM potently replicates the regulatory effects of TGF-β on murine CD4+ T cells

Transforming growth factor‐beta (TGF‐β) family proteins mediate many vital biological functions in growth, development and regulation of the immune system. TGF‐β itself controls immune homeostasis and inflammation, including conversion of naïve CD4+ T cells into Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs) in the presence of IL‐2 and T cell receptor ligands. The helminth parasite Heligmosomoides polygyrus exploits this pathway through a structurally novel TGF‐β mimic (Hp‐TGM), which binds to mammalian TGF‐β receptors and induces Tregs. Here, we performed detailed comparisons of Hp‐TGM with mammalian TGF‐β. Compared to TGF‐β, Hp‐TGM induced greater numbers of Foxp3+ Tregs (iTregs), with more intense Foxp3 expression. Both ligands upregulated Treg functional markers CD73, CD103 and PD‐L1, but Hp‐TGM induced significantly higher CD39 expression than did TGF‐β. Interestingly, in contrast to canonical TGF‐β signalling through Smad2/3, Hp‐TGM stimulation was slower and more sustained. Gene expression profiles induced by TGF‐β and Hp‐TGM were remarkably similar, and both types of iTregs suppressed T cell responses in vitro and EAE‐driven inflammation in vivo. In vitro, both types of iTregs were equally stable under inflammatory conditions, but Hp‐TGM‐induced iTregs were more stable in vivo during DSS‐induced colitis, with greater retention of Foxp3 expression and lower conversion to a ROR‐γt+ phenotype. Altogether, results from this study suggest that the parasite cytokine mimic, Hp‐TGM, may deliver a qualitatively different signal to CD4+ T cells with downstream consequences for the long‐term stability of iTregs. These data highlight the potential of Hp‐TGM as a new modulator of T cell responses in vitro and in vivo

Non-Insertive Acupuncture and Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome: A Case Series from an Inner City Safety Net Hospital

OBJECTIVE: We report on the safety of non-insertive acupuncture (NIA) in 54 newborns diagnosed with Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS) in a busy inner city hospital. METHODS: For this case series, a retrospective chart review was conducted. Data on participant demographics, number of NIA treatments, provider referrals, and outcomes of interest (sleeping, feeding, and adverse events) were collected. RESULTS: Of the 54 newborns receiving NIA, 86% were non-Hispanic White; 87% were on Medicaid, and gestational age ranged from 33.2 to 42.1 weeks. Out of 54 chart reviews, a total of 92 NIA sessions were documented ranging from 1 to 6 sessions per infant. Of the total number of treatments (n = 92), 73% were requested by a physician. Chart reviews reported restless infants calmed down during NIA, babies slept through or fell asleep immediately following NIA, and better feeding was noted following NIA. There were no adverse events noted in the medical records. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective chart review shows potential for the use of NIA as an adjunctive treatment in newborns with NAS symptoms during hospitalization. More research is necessary to study whether the incorporation of NIA can result in positive outcomes in newborns withdrawing from narcotics

Ensuring the Health Care Needs of Women: A Checklist for Health Exchanges

To inform the development of the state health insurance Exchanges under the Affordable Care Act, this checklist identifies key coverage, affordability and access issues that are important for women. Based on lessons learned from women’s health research and the Massachusetts experience, the checklist considers essential health benefits, implementation of no-cost preventive services including contraception, provider networks and affordability, outreach and enrollment efforts, and the importance of including gender and other demographic characteristics in data collection and reporting standards. It was jointly authored by policy experts at the Kaiser Family Foundation, The Connors Center for Women’s Health and Gender Biology at the Brigham and Women’s Hospital and the Jacobs Institute of Women’s Health at The George Washington University

Health literacy and complementary and alternative medicine use among underserved inpatients in a safety net hospital

Little is known about the relationship between health literacy and complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) use in low-income racially diverse patients. The authors conducted a secondary analysis of baseline data from 581 participants enrolled in the Re-Engineered Discharge clinical trial. The authors assessed sociodemographic characteristics, CAM use, and health literacy. They used bivariate and multivariate logistic regression to test the association of health literacy with four patterns of CAM use. Of the 581 participants, 50% reported using any CAM, 28% used provider-delivered CAM therapies, 27% used relaxation techniques, and 21% used herbal medicine. Of those with higher health literacy, 55% used CAM. Although there was no association between health literacy and CAM use for non-Hispanic Black participants, non-Hispanic White (OR = 3.68, 95% CI [1.27, 9.99]) and Hispanic/other race (OR = 3.40, 95% CI [1.46, 7.91]) participants were significantly more likely to use CAM if they had higher health literacy. For each racial/ethnic group, there were higher odds of using relaxation techniques among those with higher health literacy. Underserved hospitalized patients use CAM. Regardless of race, patients with high health literacy make greater use of relaxation techniques

Radiocarbon evidence for the stability of polar ocean overturning during the Holocene

Funding: T.C. acknowledges support from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB40010200), Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (020614380116) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (41991325, 41822603 and 42021001). L.F.R. acknowledges support from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/S001743/1, NE/R005117/1, NE/N003861/1 and NE/X00127X/1).Proxy-based studies have linked the pre-industrial atmospheric pCO2 rise of ∼20 ppmv in the mid- to late Holocene to an inferred increase in the Southern Ocean overturning and associated biogeochemical changes. However, the history of polar ocean overturning and ventilation through the Holocene remains poorly constrained, leaving important gaps in the assessment of the feedbacks between changes in ocean circulation and the carbon cycle in a warm climate state. The deep-ocean radiocarbon content, which provides a measure of ventilation, responds to circulation changes on centennial to millennial time scales. Here we present absolutely dated deep-sea coral radiocarbon records from the Drake Passage, between South America and Antarctica, and Reykjanes Ridge, south of Iceland, over the Holocene. Our data suggest that ventilation in the Antarctic circumpolar waters and North Atlantic Deep Water is surprisingly invariant within proxy uncertainties at our sampling resolution. Our findings indicate that long-term, large-scale polar ocean overturning has not been disturbed to a level resolvable by radiocarbon and is probably not responsible for the millennial atmosphere pCO2 evolution through the Holocene. Instead, continuous nutrient and carbon redistribution within the water column following deglaciation, as well as changes in land organic carbon stock, might have regulated atmospheric CO2 budget during this period.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe