Variable Selection to Improve Classification in Structure-activity Studies and Spectroscopic Analysis

A genetic algorithm for variable selection to improve classifications is explored and validated on a wide range of data. In one study, 147 tetralin and indan musks and nonmusks compiled from the literature for the purpose of investigating the relationship between molecular structure and musk odor quality were correctly classified by 45 molecular descriptors identified by the pattern recognition GA which revealed an asymmetric data structure. A 3-layer feed-forward neural network trained by back propagation was used to develop a discriminant that correctly classified all of the compounds in the training set as musk and nonmusk. The neural network was successfully validated using an external prediction set of 37 compounds. In another study, 172 tetralin-, indan- and isochroman-like compounds were combed from the published literature to investigate the relationship between chemical structure and musk odor quality. The 20 molecular structural descriptors selected by the pattern recognition GA yielded a discriminant that was successfully validated using an external validation set consisting of 19 compounds. In a third study, the development of a prototype pattern recognition library search system for the infrared spectral libraries of the paint data query database to improve the discrimination capability and permit quantification of discriminant power for automotive paint comparisons involving the original equipment manufacturer is described. The system consists of two separate but interrelated components: search prefilters to cull the library spectra to a specific assembly plant and a cross correlation library search algorithm that utilizes both forward and backward searching to identify the year, line and model of the unknown in the spectral set identified by the search prefilters. The genetic algorithm was able to identify spectral variables from the clear coat, surfacer-primer and e-coat layers of the original manufacturer�s automotive paint that were characteristic of the assembly plant of the vehicle.Chemistr

Health care resource use by patients before and after a diagnosis of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS/ME): a clinical practice research datalink study

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to investigate patterns of health care resource use by patients before and after a diagnosis of CFS/ME, as recorded by Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GP practices in the UK. METHODS: We used a case–control study design in which patients who had a first recorded diagnosis of CFS/ME during the period 01/01/2001 to 31/12/2013 were matched 1:1 with controls by age, sex, and GP practice. We compared rates of GP consultations, diagnostic tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms between the two groups from 15 years (in adults) or 10 years (in children) before diagnosis to 10 years after diagnosis. RESULTS: Data were available for 6710 adult and 916 child (age <18 years) matched case–control pairs. Rates of GP consultations, diagnostic tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms spiked dramatically in the year when a CFS/ME diagnosis was recorded. GP consultation rates were 50% higher in adult cases compared to controls 11–15 years before diagnosis (rate ratio (RR) 1.49 (95% CI 1.46, 1.52)) and 56% higher 6–10 years after diagnosis (RR 1.56 (1.54, 1.57)). In children, consultation rates in cases were 45% higher 6–10 years before diagnosis (RR 1.45 (1.40, 1.51)) and 62% higher 6–10 years after diagnosis (RR 1.62 (1.54, 1.70)). For adults and children, rates of tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms were higher in cases compared to controls for up to 10 years before and after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Adults and children with CFS/ME have greater health care needs than the rest of the population for at least ten years before their diagnosis, and these higher levels of health care resource use continue for at least ten years after diagnosis

Learning brief: Coordinating and managing information during the COVID-19 pandemic

This brief summarises lessons learned about coordination and information management during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this brief, we describe how existing coordination mechanisms adapted to the pandemic and how new mechanisms arose to meet new needs. We also describe patterns in coordination and information management across all phases of the programme cycle. We provide practical recommendations to guide coordination and information management in the short term, in response to COVID-19, and ideas for how coordination and information management could be strengthened to support future outbreak responses. The lessons shared in this brief are drawn from the work of the COVID-19 Hygiene Hub. This brief is primarily designed for people engaged in coordination platforms within the water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sector. It is also relevant to other programmers, researchers, policy makers and funders who have been involved in COVID-19 prevention programming

Health care resource use by patients before and after a diagnosis of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS/ME):a Clinical Practice Research Datalink study

Abstract Background Our aim was to investigate patterns of health care resource use by patients before and after a diagnosis of CFS/ME, as recorded by Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GP practices in the UK. Methods We used a case–control study design in which patients who had a first recorded diagnosis of CFS/ME during the period 01/01/2001 to 31/12/2013 were matched 1:1 with controls by age, sex, and GP practice. We compared rates of GP consultations, diagnostic tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms between the two groups from 15 years (in adults) or 10 years (in children) before diagnosis to 10 years after diagnosis. Results Data were available for 6710 adult and 916 child (age <18 years) matched case–control pairs. Rates of GP consultations, diagnostic tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms spiked dramatically in the year when a CFS/ME diagnosis was recorded. GP consultation rates were 50% higher in adult cases compared to controls 11–15 years before diagnosis (rate ratio (RR) 1.49 (95% CI 1.46, 1.52)) and 56% higher 6–10 years after diagnosis (RR 1.56 (1.54, 1.57)). In children, consultation rates in cases were 45% higher 6–10 years before diagnosis (RR 1.45 (1.40, 1.51)) and 62% higher 6–10 years after diagnosis (RR 1.62 (1.54, 1.70)). For adults and children, rates of tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms were higher in cases compared to controls for up to 10 years before and after diagnosis. Conclusions Adults and children with CFS/ME have greater health care needs than the rest of the population for at least ten years before their diagnosis, and these higher levels of health care resource use continue for at least ten years after diagnosis

Health care resource use by patients before and after a diagnosis of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS/ME):a Clinical Practice Research Datalink study

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to investigate patterns of health care resource use by patients before and after a diagnosis of CFS/ME, as recorded by Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GP practices in the UK. METHODS: We used a case–control study design in which patients who had a first recorded diagnosis of CFS/ME during the period 01/01/2001 to 31/12/2013 were matched 1:1 with controls by age, sex, and GP practice. We compared rates of GP consultations, diagnostic tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms between the two groups from 15 years (in adults) or 10 years (in children) before diagnosis to 10 years after diagnosis. RESULTS: Data were available for 6710 adult and 916 child (age <18 years) matched case–control pairs. Rates of GP consultations, diagnostic tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms spiked dramatically in the year when a CFS/ME diagnosis was recorded. GP consultation rates were 50% higher in adult cases compared to controls 11–15 years before diagnosis (rate ratio (RR) 1.49 (95% CI 1.46, 1.52)) and 56% higher 6–10 years after diagnosis (RR 1.56 (1.54, 1.57)). In children, consultation rates in cases were 45% higher 6–10 years before diagnosis (RR 1.45 (1.40, 1.51)) and 62% higher 6–10 years after diagnosis (RR 1.62 (1.54, 1.70)). For adults and children, rates of tests, prescriptions, referrals, and symptoms were higher in cases compared to controls for up to 10 years before and after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Adults and children with CFS/ME have greater health care needs than the rest of the population for at least ten years before their diagnosis, and these higher levels of health care resource use continue for at least ten years after diagnosis

Treatment outcome in adults with chronic fatigue syndrome: a prospective study in England based on the CFS/ME National Outcomes Database

Background: Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is relatively common and disabling. Over 8000 patients attend adult services each year, yet little is known about the outcome of patients attending NHS services. Aim: Investigate the outcome of patients with CFS and what factors predict outcome. Design: Longitudinal patient cohort. Methods: We used data from six CFS/ME (myalgic encephalomyelitis) specialist services to measure changes in fatigue (Chalder Fatigue Scale), physical function (SF-36), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and pain (visual analogue pain rating scale) between clinical assessment and 8–20 months of follow-up. We used multivariable linear regression to investigate baseline factors associated with outcomes at follow-up. Results: Baseline data obtained at clinical assessment were available for 1643 patients, of whom 834 (51%) had complete follow-up data. There were improvements in fatigue [mean difference from assessment to outcome: −6.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) −7.4 to −6.2; P < 0.001]; physical function (4.4; 95% CI 3.0–5.8; P < 0.001), anxiety (−0.6; 95% CI −0.9 to −0.3; P < 0.001), depression (−1.6; 95% CI −1.9 to −1.4; P < 0.001) and pain (−5.3; 95% CI −7.0 to −3.6; P < 0.001). Worse fatigue, physical function and pain at clinical assessment predicted a worse outcome for fatigue at follow-up. Older age, increased pain and physical function at assessment were associated with poorer physical function at follow-up. Conclusions: Patients who attend NHS specialist CFS/ME services can expect similar improvements in fatigue, anxiety and depression to participants receiving cognitive behavioural therapy and graded exercise therapy in a recent trial, but are likely to experience less improvement in physical function. Outcomes were predicted by fatigue, disability and pain at assessment

One-way diffraction grating

Matthew J. Lockyear, Alastair P. Hibbins, Kevin R. White, and J. Roy Sambles, Physical Review E, Vol. 74, article 056611 (2006). "Copyright © 2006 by the American Physical Society."Diffraction gratings are elementary tools for much of optics and spectroscopy. Here, at microwave frequencies, we provide a new perspective on these fundamental structures. A transmission diffraction grating is presented that has diffracted beams emanating from one surface only. It can thus function either as a transmission grating with no reflected orders (other than zero) or, in the reverse configuration, as a partially transmitting structure with diffracted orders in reflection only

On reverberation and cross-correlation estimates of the size of the broad-line region in active galactic nuclei

It is known that the dependence of the emission-line luminosity of a typical cloud in the active galactic nuclei broad-line regions (BLRs) upon the incident flux of ionizing continuum can be nonlinear. We study how this nonlinearity can be taken into account in estimating the size of the BLR by means of the "reverberation" methods. We show that the BLR size estimates obtained by cross-correlation of emission-line and continuum light curves can be much (up to an order of magnitude) less than the values obtained by reverberation modelling. This is demonstrated by means of numerical cross-correlation and reverberation experiments with model continuum flares and emission-line transfer functions and by means of practical reverberation modelling of the observed optical spectral variability of NGC 4151. The time behaviour of NGC 4151 in the H_alpha and H_beta lines is modelled on the basis of the observational data by Kaspi et al. (1996, ApJ, 470, 336) and the theoretical BLR model by Shevchenko (1984, Sov. Astron. Lett., 10, 377; 1985, Sov. Astron. Lett., 11, 35). The values of the BLR parameters are estimated that allow to judge on the size and physical characteristics of the BLR. The small size of the BLR, as determined by the cross-correlation method from the data of Kaspi et al. (1996, ApJ, 470, 336), is shown to be an artifact of this method. So, the hypothesis that the BLR size varies in time is not necessitated by the observational data.Comment: 26 pages, including 11 figure

Keck Hires Observations of the QSO First J104459.6+365605: Evidence for a Large Scale Outflow

This paper presents an analysis of a Keck HIRES spectrum of the QSO FIRST J104459.6+365605. The line of sight towards the QSO contains two clusters of outflowing clouds that give rise to broad blue shifted absorption lines. The outflow velocities of the clouds range from -200 to -1200 km/s and from -3400 to -5200 km/s, respectively. The width of the individual absorption lines ranges from 50 to more than 1000 km/s. The most prominent absorption lines are those of Mg II, Mg I, and Fe II. The low ionization absorption lines occur at the same velocities as the most saturated Mg II lines, showing that the Fe II, Mg I and Mg II line forming regions must be closely associated. Many absorption lines from excited states of Fe II are present, allowing a determination of the population of several low lying energy levels. From this we determine an electron density in the Fe II line forming regions of 4000 per cubic cm. Modelling the ionization state of the absorbing gas with this value of the electron density as a constraint, we find that the distance between the Fe II and Mg I line forming region and the continuum source is of order 700 parsec. From the correspondence in velocity between the Fe II, Mg I and Mg II lines we infer that the Mg II lines must be formed at the same distance. The Mg II absorption fulfills the criteria for Broad Absorption Lines defined by Weymann et al. (1991). This large distance is surprising, since BALs are generally thought to be formed in outflows at a much smaller distance from the nucleus.Comment: 34 pages, 11 figures. Accepted by The Astrophysical Journa

Trends in the incidence of chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia in the UK, 2001-2013: a Clinical Practice Research Datalink study

Objective Trends in recorded diagnoses of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS, also known as 'myalgic encephalomyelitis' (ME)) and fibromyalgia (FM) in the UK were last reported more than ten years ago, for the period 1990-2001. Our aim was to analyse trends in incident diagnoses of CFS/ME and FM for the period 2001-2013, and to investigate whether incidence might vary by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score. Design Electronic health records cohort study. Setting NHS primary care practices in the UK. Participants Participants: Patients registered with general practices linked to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care database from January 2001 to December 2013. Main outcome measure Incidence of CFS/ME, FM, post-viral fatigue syndrome (PVFS), and asthenia/debility. Results The overall annual incidence of recorded cases of CFS/ME was 14.8 (95% CI 14.5, 15.1) per 100,000 people. Overall annual incidence per 100,000 people for FM was 33.3 (32.8-33.8), for PVFS 12.2 (11.9, 12.5), and for asthenia/debility 7.0 (6.8, 7.2). Annual incidence rates for CFS/ME diagnoses decreased from 17.5 (16.1, 18.9) in 2001 to 12.6 (11.5, 13.8) in 2013 (annual percent change -2.8% (-3.6%, -2.0%)). Annual incidence rates for FM diagnoses decreased from 32.3 (30.4, 34.3) to 27.1 (25.5, 28.6) in 2007, then increased to 38.2 (36.3, 40.1) per 100,000 people in 2013. Overall annual incidence of recorded fatigue symptoms was 2246 (2242, 2250) per 100,000 people. Compared with the least deprived IMD quintile, incidence of CFS/ME in the most deprived quintile was 39% lower (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.61 (0.50, 0.75)), whereas rates of FM were 40% higher (IRR 1.40 (0.95, 2.06)). Conclusion These analyses suggest a gradual decline in recorded diagnoses of CFS/ME since 2001, and an increase in diagnoses of fibromyalgia, with opposing socioeconomic patterns of lower rates of CFS/ME diagnoses in the poorest areas compared with higher rates of FM diagnoses