Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive timescale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this timescale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a ‘knowledge-value’ gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socio-economic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development – demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors – this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value and co-generation of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting timescale

Factors influencing young men's decision to undergo health screening in Malaysia: a qualitative study

Objectives: Uptake of health screening is low in men, particularly among those aged <40 years. This study aimed to explore factors that influence health screening behaviour in younger men. Design: This qualitative study employed an interpretive descriptive approach. Two trained researchers conducted in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) using a semi-structured topic guide, which was developed based on literature review and behavioural theories. All IDIs and FGDs were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Two researchers analysed the data independently using a thematic approach. Participants and setting: Men working in a banking institution in Kuala Lumpur were recruited to the study. They were purposively sampled according to their ethnicity, job position, age and screening status in order to achieve maximal variation. Results: Eight IDIs and five FGDs were conducted (n=31) and six themes emerged from the analysis. (1) Young men did not consider screening as part of prevention and had low risk perception. (2) The younger generation was more receptive to health screening due to their exposure to health information through the internet. (3) Health screening was not a priority in young men except for those who were married. (4) Young men had limited income and would rather invest in health insurance than screening. (5) Young men tended to follow doctors' advice when it comes to screening and preferred doctors of the same gender and ethnicity. (6) Medical overuse was also raised where young men wanted more screening tests while doctors tended to promote unnecessary screening tests to them. Conclusions: This study identified important factors that influenced young men's screening behaviour. Health authorities should address young men's misperceptions, promote the importance of early detection and develop a reasonable health screening strategy for them. Appropriate measures must be put in place to reduce low value screening practices

Barriers and facilitators to health screening in men: A systematic review.

RATIONALE: Men have poorer health status and are less likely to attend health screening compared to women. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review presents current evidence on the barriers and facilitators to engaging men in health screening. METHODS: We included qualitative, quantitative and mixed-method studies identified through five electronic databases, contact with experts and reference mining. Two researchers selected and appraised the studies independently. Data extraction and synthesis were conducted using the 'best fit' framework synthesis method. RESULTS: 53 qualitative, 44 quantitative and 6 mixed-method studies were included. Factors influencing health screening uptake in men can be categorized into five domains: individual, social, health system, healthcare professional and screening procedure. The most commonly reported barriers are fear of getting the disease and low risk perception; for facilitators, they are perceived risk and benefits of screening. Male-dominant barriers include heterosexual -self-presentation, avoidance of femininity and lack of time. The partner's role is the most common male-dominant facilitator to screening. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of barriers and facilitators to health screening in men including the male-dominant factors. The findings are particularly useful for clinicians, researchers and policy makers who are developing interventions and policies to increase screening uptake in men

AG Agriculture CK Coyote brush AK Alkaline flats CL Wedgeleaf ceanothus

AN Mendocino manzanita CM Upper montane mixed shru

Inter-observer agreement for clinical examinations of foot lesions of sheep

In sheep, the diagnosis of foot lesions is routinely based on physical examination of the hoof. Correct diagnosis is important for the effective treatment, prevention and control of both infectious and non-infectious causes of lameness. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the level of inter-observer agreement for clinical examination of ovine foot lesions. Eight observers of varying experience, training and occupation performed foot examinations on a total of 1158 sheep from 38 farms across North England and Wales. On each farm, a group of two to four observers independently examined a sample of 24 to 30 sheep to diagnose the presence or absence of specific foot lesions including white line lesions (WL), contagious ovine digital dermatitis (CODD), footrot (FR), inter-digital dermatitis (ID) and toe granuloma (TG). The inter-observer agreement of foot lesion assessments was examined using Fleiss kappa (κ), and Cohen's κ examined the paired agreement between the test standard observer (TSO) and each observer. Scoring differences with the TSO were examined as the percentage of scoring errors and assessed for evidence of systematic scoring bias. With the exception of WL (maximum error rate 33.3%), few scoring differences with the TSO occurred (maximum error rate 3.3%). This suggests that observers can achieve good levels of reliability when diagnosing most of the commonly observed foot conditions associated with lameness in sheep

The Galaxy Structure-Redshift Relationship

There exists a gradual, but persistent, evolutionary effect in the galaxy population such that galaxy structure and morphology change with redshift. This galaxy structure-redshift relationship is such that an increasingly large fraction of all bright and massive galaxies at redshifts 2 < z < 3 are morphologically peculiar at wavelengths from rest-frame ultraviolet to rest-frame optical. There are however examples of morphologically selected spirals and ellipticals at all redshifts up to z ~ 3. At lower redshift, the bright galaxy population smoothly transforms into normal ellipticals and spirals. The rate of this transformation strongly depends on redshift, with the swiftest evolution occurring between 1 < z < 2. This review characterizes the galaxy structure-redshift relationship, discusses its various physical causes, and how these are revealing the mechanisms responsible for galaxy formation.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures. Invited Review to appear in "Penetrating Bars Through Masks of Cosmic Dust: The Hubble Tuning Fork Strikes A New Note", ed. D. Block et a

A large radio nebula around P Cygni

We present a large set of radio observations of the luminous blue variable P Cygni. These include two 6-cm images obtained with MERLIN which spatially resolve the 6-cm photosphere, monitoring observations obtained at Jodrell Bank every few days over a period of two months, and VLA observations obtained every month for seven years. This combination of data shows that the circumstellar environment of P Cyg is highly inhomogeneous, that there is a radio nebula extending to almost an arcminute from the star at 2 and 6 cm, and that the radio emission is variable on a time-scale no longer than one month, and probably as short as a few days. This short-time-scale variability is difficult to explain. We present a model for the radio emission with which we demonstrate that the star has probably been losing mass at a significant rate for at least a few thousand years, and that it has undergone at least two major outbursts of increased mass loss during the past two millenia