The Introduction of Bitcoin Futures: An Examination of Volatility and Potential Spillover Effects

Theory in Stein (1987) suggests that introducing derivative contracts, such as futures, can destabilize underlying asset prices if the contracts attract enough speculative traders. This paper examines how the introduction of Bitcoin futures influences the underlying Bitcoin market. Consistent with Stein (1987), we find that that Bitcoin\u27s volatility increases significantly during the post-introduction period. Perhaps more importantly, however, we observe significant spillover effects into related markets. For instance, in other cryptocurrencies, the increase in volatility in these markets is greater than the post-introduction increase in Bitcoin

Comovement in the Cryptocurrency Market

This study examines the comovement between 17 of the most active cryptocurrencies. We are unable to statistically reject the presence of perfect comovement between Bitcoin and six of the 16 non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies. Consistent with the friction-based explanation for the presence of comovement, once the CBOE introduced futures contracts on Bitcoin, we find that all 16 cryptocurrencies comove with Bitcoin. These results suggest that introducing futures contracts improves the informational environment of the entire cryptocurrency market, which helps explain the unusual comovement in the cryptocurrency market

The Information Content of Option Ratios

A broad stream of research shows that information flows into underlying stock prices through the options market. For instance, prior research shows that both the Put–Call Ratio (P/C) and the Option-to-Stock Volume Ratio (O/S) predict negative future stock returns. In this paper, we compare the level of information contained in these two commonly used option volume ratios. First, we find that P/C ratios contain more predictability about future stock returns at the daily level than O/S ratios. Second, in contrast to our first set of results, O/S ratios contain more predictability about future returns at the weekly and monthly levels than P/C ratios. In fact, our tests show that while P/C ratios contain predictability about future daily returns and, to some extent, future weekly returns, the return predictability in P/C ratios is fleeting. O/S ratios, on the other hand, significantly predict negative returns at all levels: daily, weekly, and monthly. While Pan and Poteshman (2006) show that signed P/C ratios, which require proprietary data, have predictive power, we find that unsigned P/C ratios, which do not require proprietary data, also have predictive power

Gambling Preferences, Options Markets, and Volatility

Abstract This study examines whether the gambling behavior of investors affects volume and volatility in financial markets. Focusing on the options market, we find that the ratio of call option volume relative to total option volume is greatest for stocks with return distributions that resemble lotteries. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of Stein (1987), we demonstrate that gambling-motivated trading in the options market influences future spot price volatility. These results not only identify a link between lottery preferences in the stock market and the options market, but they also suggest that lottery preferences can lead to destabilized stock prices

Network Connections in REIT Markets

Relationships play a central role across the spectrum of real estate transactions. Whether negotiating prices, securing funding, or acquiring permits, knowing the right people provides multiple channels to facilitate deal making. To better understand the role of relationships in real estate markets, we examine how the connectedness of REIT directors is associated with deal making, growth, and profitability. We find strong evidence that REIT connections are positively associated with both deal making and accounting based measures of profitability, however, those relations do not translate into better market returns or higher valuations. One explanation of these somewhat contradictory results is that connections also increase firm risk. Preliminary support for this conjecture is found through our examination of each firm’s implied cost of equity capital. Specifically, we find increasing connectedness is associated with a higher cost of equity capital. Thus, connections appear to offer both advantages and disadvantages to REIT managers and shareholders

Fingerprinting outdoor air environment using microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs) – A review

© 2016 The Authors The impact of bioaerosol emissions from urban, agricultural and industrial environments on local air quality is of growing policy concern. Yet the risk exposure from outdoor emissions is difficult to quantify in real-time as microbial concentration in air is low and varies depending on meteorological factors and land use types. While there is also a large number of sampling methods in use, there is yet no standardised protocol established. In this review, a critical insight into chemical fingerprint analysis of microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOC) is provided. The most suitable techniques for sampling and analysing MVOCs in outdoor environments are reviewed and the need for further studies on MVOCs from outdoor environments including background levels is highlighted. There is yet no rapid and portable technique that allows rapid detection and analysis of MVOCs on site. Further directions towards a portable GC–MS coupled with SPME or an electronic nose are discussed

Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly

One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics

Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly.

One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics