Uncertainty categories in medical image segmentation: a study of source-related diversity

Measuring uncertainties in the output of a deep learning method is useful in several ways, such as in assisting with interpretation of the outputs, helping build confidence with end users, and for improving the training and performance of the networks. Several different methods have been proposed to estimate uncertainties, including those from epistemic (relating to the model used) and aleatoric (relating to the data) sources using test-time dropout and augmentation, respectively. Not only are these uncertainty sources different, but they are governed by parameter settings (e.g., dropout rate or type and level of augmentation) that establish even more distinct uncertainty categories. This work investigates how different the uncertainties are from these categories, for magnitude and spatial pattern, to empirically address the question of whether they provide usefully distinct information that should be captured whenever uncertainties are used. We take the well characterised BraTS challenge dataset to demonstrate that there are substantial differences in both magnitude and spatial pattern of uncertainties from the different categories, and discuss the implications of these in various use cases

Pregnancy and Neonatal Diabetes Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) study

Abstract Background: Diabetes in pregnancy carries an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes for both the mother and foetus, but it also provides an excellent early opportunity for intervention in the life course for both mother and baby. In the context of the escalating epidemic of chronic diseases among Indigenous Australians, it is vital that this risk is reduced as early as possible in the life course of the individual. The aims of the PANDORA Study are to: (i) accurately assess rates of diabetes in pregnancy in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia, where 38% of babies are born to Indigenous mothers; (ii) assess demographic, clinical, biochemical, anthropometric, socioeconomic and early life development factors that may contribute to key maternal and neonatal birth outcomes associated with diabetes in pregnancy; and (iii) monitor relevant post-partum clinical outcomes for both the mothers and their babies. Methods/Design: Eligible participants are all NT women with diabetes in pregnancy aged 16 years and over. Information collected includes: standard antenatal clinical information, diagnosis and management of diabetes in pregnancy, socio-economic status, standard clinical birth information (delivery, gestational age, birth weight, adverse antenatal and birth outcomes). Cord blood is collected at the time of delivery and detailed neonatal anthropometric measurements performed within 72 hours of birth. Information will also be collected regarding maternal postpartum glucose tolerance and cardio-metabolic risk factor status, breastfeeding and growth of the baby up to 2 years post-partum in the first instance. Discussion: This study will accurately document rates and outcomes of diabetes in pregnancy in the NT of Australia, including the high-risk Indigenous Australian population. The results of this study should contribute to policy and clinical guidelines with the goal of reducing the future risk of obesity and diabetes in both mothers and their offspring

Pregnancy and Neonatal Diabetes Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) study

Abstract Background: Diabetes in pregnancy carries an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes for both the mother and foetus, but it also provides an excellent early opportunity for intervention in the life course for both mother and baby. In the context of the escalating epidemic of chronic diseases among Indigenous Australians, it is vital that this risk is reduced as early as possible in the life course of the individual. The aims of the PANDORA Study are to: (i) accurately assess rates of diabetes in pregnancy in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia, where 38% of babies are born to Indigenous mothers; (ii) assess demographic, clinical, biochemical, anthropometric, socioeconomic and early life development factors that may contribute to key maternal and neonatal birth outcomes associated with diabetes in pregnancy; and (iii) monitor relevant post-partum clinical outcomes for both the mothers and their babies. Methods/Design: Eligible participants are all NT women with diabetes in pregnancy aged 16 years and over. Information collected includes: standard antenatal clinical information, diagnosis and management of diabetes in pregnancy, socio-economic status, standard clinical birth information (delivery, gestational age, birth weight, adverse antenatal and birth outcomes). Cord blood is collected at the time of delivery and detailed neonatal anthropometric measurements performed within 72 hours of birth. Information will also be collected regarding maternal postpartum glucose tolerance and cardio-metabolic risk factor status, breastfeeding and growth of the baby up to 2 years post-partum in the first instance. Discussion: This study will accurately document rates and outcomes of diabetes in pregnancy in the NT of Australia, including the high-risk Indigenous Australian population. The results of this study should contribute to policy and clinical guidelines with the goal of reducing the future risk of obesity and diabetes in both mothers and their offspring

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Rehabilitation versus surgical reconstruction for non-acute anterior cruciate ligament injury (ACL SNNAP): a pragmatic randomised controlled trial

BackgroundAnterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture is a common debilitating injury that can cause instability of the knee. We aimed to investigate the best management strategy between reconstructive surgery and non-surgical treatment for patients with a non-acute ACL injury and persistent symptoms of instability.MethodsWe did a pragmatic, multicentre, superiority, randomised controlled trial in 29 secondary care National Health Service orthopaedic units in the UK. Patients with symptomatic knee problems (instability) consistent with an ACL injury were eligible. We excluded patients with meniscal pathology with characteristics that indicate immediate surgery. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by computer to either surgery (reconstruction) or rehabilitation (physiotherapy but with subsequent reconstruction permitted if instability persisted after treatment), stratified by site and baseline Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score—4 domain version (KOOS4). This management design represented normal practice. The primary outcome was KOOS4 at 18 months after randomisation. The principal analyses were intention-to-treat based, with KOOS4 results analysed using linear regression. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN10110685, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02980367.FindingsBetween Feb 1, 2017, and April 12, 2020, we recruited 316 patients. 156 (49%) participants were randomly assigned to the surgical reconstruction group and 160 (51%) to the rehabilitation group. Mean KOOS4 at 18 months was 73·0 (SD 18·3) in the surgical group and 64·6 (21·6) in the rehabilitation group. The adjusted mean difference was 7·9 (95% CI 2·5–13·2; p=0·0053) in favour of surgical management. 65 (41%) of 160 patients allocated to rehabilitation underwent subsequent surgery according to protocol within 18 months. 43 (28%) of 156 patients allocated to surgery did not receive their allocated treatment. We found no differences between groups in the proportion of intervention-related complications.InterpretationSurgical reconstruction as a management strategy for patients with non-acute ACL injury with persistent symptoms of instability was clinically superior and more cost-effective in comparison with rehabilitation management

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570