Spatial-temporal rainfall simulation using generalized linear models

We consider the problem of simulating sequences of daily rainfall at a network of sites in such a way as to reproduce a variety of properties realistically over a range of spatial scales. The properties of interest will vary between applications but typically will include some measures of "extreme'' rainfall in addition to means, variances, proportions of wet days, and autocorrelation structure. Our approach is to fit a generalized linear model (GLM) to rain gauge data and, with appropriate incorporation of intersite dependence structure, to use the GLM to generate simulated sequences. We illustrate the methodology using a data set from southern England and show that the GLM is able to reproduce many properties at spatial scales ranging from a single site to 2000 km 2 ( the limit of the available data)

Analysis of rainfall variability using generalized linear models: A case study from the west of Ireland

In the early 1990s a cluster of extreme flood events occurred in the south Galway region of western Ireland, and this led to speculation of changing rainfall patterns in the area. In this paper we illustrate the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) to test for such changes and quantify their structure. GLMs, long established in the statistical literature, provide a flexible and rigorous formal framework within which to distinguish between possible climate change scenarios and are able to deal with high levels of variability, such as those typically associated with daily rainfall sequences. The study indicates that the GLM approach provides a powerful tool for interpreting historical rainfall records

Discrete approaches to quantum gravity in four dimensions

The construction of a consistent theory of quantum gravity is a problem in theoretical physics that has so far defied all attempts at resolution. One ansatz to try to obtain a non-trivial quantum theory proceeds via a discretization of space-time and the Einstein action. I review here three major areas of research: gauge-theoretic approaches, both in a path-integral and a Hamiltonian formulation, quantum Regge calculus, and the method of dynamical triangulations, confining attention to work that is strictly four-dimensional, strictly discrete, and strictly quantum in nature.Comment: 33 pages, invited contribution to Living Reviews in Relativity; the author welcomes any comments and suggestion

Developing interdisciplinary science for integrated catchment management : the UK lowland catchment research (LOCAR) programme

Across the European Union, the Water Framework Directive is a major driver for change in river basin management. However, its focus on integrated management and, in particular, on ecological quality raises major scientific and technical questions. In the UK, the focus of experimental hydrology has been on the uplands, and at small catchment scale (< 10 km2), whereas major management pressures lie in the lowlands, and for catchment management units of about 300-400 km2. Particular problems arise for permeable lowland catchments: the scientific understanding of the major UK aquifers (the Chalk and the Triassic Sandstone) is poor, and tools for the integrated modelling of surface water-groundwater interactions are limited. In response to these factors, the LOwland CAtchment Research programme (LOCAR) was conceived. A major objective of the programme is to develop new interdisciplinary science and improved modelling tools to meet the challenges of integrated catchment management. The paper describes the research programme and addresses the issues raised in designing and implementing a major interdisciplinary research initiative