Model Closure and Price Formation Under Switching Grain Market Regimes in South Africa

This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Challenges in Modeling the Effects of Trade Agreements on the Agricultural Sector

Major issues and challenges encountered in modeling and analyzing agricultural and trade policy reforms are reviewed. We focus on the modeling approach and pay special attention to the type and scope of the models, the calibration of a realistic baseline scenario, the representation of the reform agreement, the use of extra-model information, the choice of metrics to measure reform impacts, and emerging issues in policy modeling. Existing solutions and unresolved issues are examined. We stress the complementarity of various modeling approaches in assessing policy reforms and the importance of helping users understand the limitations of the chosen approach. Keywords: agricultural policy, economic modeling, trade agreements. JEL classification: Q17, Q18, F13

Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa

This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce more reliable projections of the evolution of the sector under alternative shocks.Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,

Commodity Program Reform and the Structure of U.S. Agriculture

Current agricultural commodity programs affect the structure of U.S. agriculture in a variety of ways. An informal survey of participants in a conference concerning the structure of agriculture indicates a weak consensus among professionals that current programs increase the number of farms, result in more specialization, and encourage land ownership by operators. Analysis by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) indicates that the elimination of current farm programs would reduce net farm income dramatically, especially in the short run. The negative effects on farm income are estimated to be smaller if other countries also eliminate their agricultural subsidy programs

Conservation Reserve and Conservation Compliance Programs: Implications for Resource Adjustment

Conservation Titles of the 1985 Food Security Act lead to agricultural market and resource use adjustments. This study explores how the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and the Conservation Compliance (CC) Program influence land use, commodity markets, input and technology use, production costs, and the environment. In the case of the Conservation Reserve Program, CARD/FAPRI commodity models are used to generate a baseline and to evaluate the impacts of increasing the amount of land in the reserve. In the case of the Conservation Compliance Program, the CARD ARIMS model is used to generate a baseline without the program and then to evaluate the impacts of imposing erosion restrictions consistent with the conservation compliance provisions. Lower stocks and higher commodity prices would be consequences of expanding the CRP. Resource adjustment associated with conservation compliance can be protracted and may be costly. Insofar as CRP reduces production and strengthens prices, it also can have the effect of increasing the intensity of input use in the remaining planted area. Conservation compliance clearly influences cropping patterns and choices of technology, as well as rates of soil erosion. While production cost increases of 2-4 percent seem relatively small, this could mean as much as 6-15 percent decline in net farm income

Игровые технологии на английском языке в курсе "Микроэкономика"

В современных условиях профессиональная подготовка специалиста требует знание иностранного языка на уровне, позволяющем свободно общаться, читать, находить необходимую информацию. В статье анализируется игра как активный метод обучения, позволяющая реализовать иноязычную коммуникативную компетенцию в курсе"Микроэкономика"

FAPRI U.S. Crops Model Documentation

The U.S. crops model is one component of the integrated modeling system developed and maintained by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), which operates as a joint program at Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia. The FAPRI system is used to generate medium-term projections of the agricultural economy and to conduct policy analysis. The U.S. crops model determines domestic supply, utilization, and prices for wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rice, and cotton, Other components of the FAPRI system include world trade models for grains and oilseeds, domestic livestock models, and satellite models that determine U.S. net farm income and the government cost of agricultural programs

Challenges of incorporating EU enlargement and CAP reform in the GOLD model framework

Published as part of the 89th Parma European Association of Agricultural Economists seminar “Modelling agricultural policies: state of the art and new challenges” proceedings. Further information may be found at http://www.lei.dlo.nl/EAAE/index.php3?page=en/content/past_seminars/past_seminars.htmThere cannot have been many circumstances that have challenged the modeller of agricultural markets to the extent that the developments in the EU in recent years have. The enlargement of the EU involving a large number of countries, with important agricultural sectors, many emerging from a volatile transition from centrally planning, raises many issues. Moreover this is occurring at a time of radical reform of the CAP, with the substantial decoupling of payments, an area that has attracted some research but provides little concrete guidance for sector level modellers. In this paper the challenges of each of these developments are outlined and their importance to the sector addressed. Some strategies in dealing with the issues and the impact on the model results are evaluated