Estimation of Regional Trade Substitution Elasticities for Brazil

This study estimates elasticities of regional trade in Brazil considering 110 products and 558 regions. For this, a large database was generated, becoming one of the most important stages in the trajectory of the study given the highly intensive procedures performed to obtain the final interregional trade flows. The elasticities were estimated using the Armington (1969) model, adapted from Bilgic’s (2002) suggestion regarding the definition of variables. Few studies were identified in the literature that aimed at estimating elasticities of substitution in regional trade, adding relative importance to this study. This fact may be related to the generation of the database because of the non-triviality in the numerous requirements and specific information of the economy. The estimation results presented, in general, coefficients with expected signs and the elasticities changed according to the types of products. Products related to agricultural and mining activities had less elastic coefficients than the coefficients of the service activities. The products related to industrial activities presented jointly an average coefficient equal to -1.775.Armington elasticity; regional trade

A typology of propagation of technology and social preferences in the process of economic development: An input-output approach

In this paper we look at the interplay of technology and social preferences in different stages of economic development. We use a set of input-output tables for 32 different countries, published by OECD. The tables refer to the period 1996-2001 and were consolidated in 48 sectors so that structural comparisons were possible. Through the use of the fields of influence of structural change for partitioned input-output systems, we confirm that, for different levels of per capita GDP, technological progress is an important element to drive output growth. However, as an economy evolves, our dataset also confirm that the composition of final demand, which reveals social preferences in a static way, move away from agricultural and manufacturing to services activities. Such structural changes favor sectors with weaker output multipliers generating a force that helps driving income convergence among countries.Social Preferences; Economic Development; Input-Output

Estimação das elasticidades de substituição do comércio regional do Brasil

This study estimates elasticities of regional trade in Brazil considering110 products and558 regions. The elasticities were estimated using the Armington (1969) model, adapted from Bilgic's (2002) suggestion regarding the definition of variables. Few studies were identified in the literature that aimed at estimating elasticities of substitution in regional trade, adding relative importance to this study. This fact may be related to the generation of the database because of the non-triviality in the numerous requirements and specific information of the economy. The estimation results presented, in general, coefficients with expected signs and the elasticities change according to the types of products. Products related to agricultural and mining activities had less elastic coefficients than the coefficients of the service activities. The products related to industrial activities presented jointly an average coefficient equal to -1.775.O presente trabalho estima elasticidades de substituição do comércio regional do Brasil considerando 110 produtos e 558 microrregiões. As elasticidades foram estimadas com base no modelo de Armington (1969), adaptado de forma similar à sugestão de Bilgic (2002) quanto à definição das variáveis. Poucos trabalhos foram identificados na literatura que tiveram o objetivo de calcular elasticidades regionais de substituição no comércio. Isso pode estar relacionado ao fato de a geração do banco de dados ser não trivial, no sentido de requerer informações refinadas e bastante numerosas da economia. Os resultados das estimações apresentaram em geral coeficientes com sinais esperados, e as elasticidades variaram que acordo com os tipos de produtos. Produtos relacionados às atividades agrícolas e de extração tendem a apresentar coeficientes menos elásticos que os coeficientes das atividades de serviços. Os produtos industriais mostraram conjuntamente um coeficiente médio igual a -1,775

Modelagem do uso da terra e efeitos de mudanças na produtividade agrícola entre 2008 e 2015

The article presents the results of the systemic effects of the change in the pattern of agricultural productivity between 2008 and 2015. A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) was used with detailed specification of land use. This analysis represents advances to contribute to both the economic modeling of land use and the investigation of systemic economic impacts of changes in the spatial pattern of agricultural productivity in Brazil. The results indicate that this change had a positive effect on the national real GDP and GRP of most states; it also contributed to reducing regional disparities in the country.O artigo apresenta os resultados dos efeitos sistêmicos da mudança no padrão da produtividade agrícola entre 2008 e 2015. Para isso foi utilizado um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC) com especificação detalhada do uso da terra. Tal análise representa avanços no sentido de contribuir tanto para a modelagem econômica com uso da terra quanto na investigação dos impactos econômicos sistêmicos da mudança no padrão espacial da produtividade agrícola no Brasil. Os resultados indicaram que essa mudança teve efeitos positivos sobre o PIB real nacional e da maioria dos estados, contribuindo também para a redução das disparidades regionais

Estimação das Elasticidades de Substituição do Comércio Regional do Brasil

This study estimates elasticities of regional trade in Brazil considering 110 products and 558 regions. For this, a large database was generated, becoming one of the most important stages in the trajectory of the study given the highly intensive procedures performed to obtain the final interregional trade flows. The elasticities were estimated using the Armington (1969) model, adapted from Bilgic’s (2002) suggestion regarding the definition of variables. Few studies were identified in the literature that aimed at estimating elasticities of substitution in regional trade, adding relative importance to this study. This fact may be related to the generation of the database because of the non-triviality in the numerous requirements and specific information of the economy. The estimation results presented, in general, coefficients with expected signs and the elasticities changed according to the types of products. Products related to agricultural and mining activities had less elastic coefficients than the coefficients of the service activities. The products related to industrial activities presented jointly an average coefficient equal to -1.775

Impacto dos investimentos do PAC em Minas Gerais: efeitos sobre crescimento e desigualdade

The Brazilian federal government has recently set out plans encompassing detailed public expenditure programs and targets on infra-structure investment (PAC, Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento). We investigate the sectoral, regional and national economic consequences of the PAC in Minas Gerais. Our modeling encompasses much detail. Firstly, we use a large-scale multi-regional CGE model of Brazil. The model is both bottom-up and top-down: bottom-up for Brazil's 27 states, and top-down for Brazil's 558 microrregions. Despite the high level of regional disaggregation, the level of sectoral disaggregation is also high, at 36 sectors. Secondly, we model the PAC in detail, considering each of the 9 sets of expenditure programs under the 2008-11 plan. We find that the PAC can have strong impacts in Minas Gerais, but can contribute to a increase in regional inequality in the state in long run.regional modeling, general equilibrium, infrastructure, regional inequality, Brazil

Estimação das Elasticidades de Substituição do Comércio Regional do Brasil

This study estimates elasticities of regional trade in Brazil considering 110 products and 558 regions. For this, a large database was generated, becoming one of the most important stages in the trajectory of the study given the highly intensive procedures performed to obtain the final interregional trade flows. The elasticities were estimated using the Armington (1969) model, adapted from Bilgic’s (2002) suggestion regarding the definition of variables. Few studies were identified in the literature that aimed at estimating elasticities of substitution in regional trade, adding relative importance to this study. This fact may be related to the generation of the database because of the non-triviality in the numerous requirements and specific information of the economy. The estimation results presented, in general, coefficients with expected signs and the elasticities changed according to the types of products. Products related to agricultural and mining activities had less elastic coefficients than the coefficients of the service activities. The products related to industrial activities presented jointly an average coefficient equal to -1.775

Relação entre óbitos de mulheres por agressão, violência e aspectos socioeconômicos nos municípios brasileiros

Objetivo: analisar a correlação entre dois conjuntos de variáveis. Um deles é formado pelo número de óbitos de mulheres por agressão e violência doméstica, sexual e outras violências. O outro é formado por indicadores socioeconômicos como o número de mulheres mães e chefes de famílias, pobreza, taxa de fecundidade, analfabetismo, renda per capita, número de empregados mulheres e salários recebidos por mulheres. Método: o método de correlação canônica foi aplicado. Resultado: os principais resultados indicaram dois coeficientes de correlação significativos entre os dois pares de variáveis canônicas geradas. Conclusões: municípios que apresentaram alto número de óbitos de mulheres por agressão e violência doméstica, sexual e outras violências detinham também maior número de mulheres chefe de famílias e com filhos menores de 15 anos, maior taxa de fecundidade, as mulheres recebiam menores salários, possuíam menor renda per capita e maior taxa de analfabetismo e proporção de pobres

Interações energéticas entre o Estado de Minas Gerais e o restante do Brasil: uma análise inter-regional de insumo-produto

This paper analyses the interactions between the State of Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil with regard to energy consumption. A hybrid interregional input-output model, by means of which energy intensity measures are computed, is used to undertake the analysis. The energy measures allow, for instance, to assess the degree in which a sector production in Minas Gerais impacts the energy consumption inside and outside the state. Also, the measures allow to assess the degree in which a sector production in the rest of Brazil (outside Minas Gerais) impacts energy consumption inside and outside the state. The analysis presents disaggregate information for 14 economic sectors, two spatial areas (Minas Gerais and the rest of Brazil), and one kind of energy use (total energy), thus allowing to trace an accurate portrait of interdependence patterns. A conclusion is that the methodology provides relevant information for the state managers/planners in the development of efficient strategies to guarantee energy supply.Este trabalho analisa as interações entre o Estado de Minas Gerais e o restante do Brasil com relação ao consumo de energia. A análise é feita utilizando-se um modelo inter-regional híbrido de insumo-produto, por meio do qual são computadas medidas de intensidade de uso energético. Essas medidas permitem, por exemplo, avaliar em que grau a produção de um setor de atividade dentro de Minas Gerais impacta o consumo de energia dentro e fora do Estado. Também permitem avaliar em que a produção de um setor de atividade no restante do Brasil (fora de Minas Gerais) impacta o consumo de energia dentro e fora do Estado. A análise desenvolvida apresenta informações desagregadas para 14 setores de atividade, duas áreas espaciais (Minas Gerais e restante do Brasil) e um tipo de energia consumida (energia total), permitindo traçar um retrato refinado dos padrões de interações. Conclui-se que a metodologia provê informações para o gestor/planejador estadual no desenvolvimento de estratégias eficientes, voltadas para garantir o suprimento de energia