Fever in high-risk paediatric patients presenting to European emergency departments : the perform experience

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Development and validation of a prediction model for invasive bacterial infections in febrile children at European Emergency Departments : MOFICHE, a prospective observational study

Funding Information: Funding This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 668303. The research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at Imperial College London, Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Archives of Disease in ChildhoodObjectives: To develop and cross-validate a multivariable clinical prediction model to identify invasive bacterial infections (IBI) and to identify patient groups who might benefit from new biomarkers. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: 12 emergency departments (EDs) in 8 European countries. Patients: Febrile children aged 0-18 years. Main outcome measures: IBI, defined as bacteraemia, meningitis and bone/joint infection. We derived and cross-validated a model for IBI using variables from the Feverkidstool (clinical symptoms, C reactive protein), neurological signs, non-blanching rash and comorbidity. We assessed discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve) and diagnostic performance at different risk thresholds for IBI: sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive likelihood ratios (LRs). Results: Of 16 268 patients, 135 (0.8%) had an IBI. The discriminative ability of the model was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82) in pooled cross-validations. The model performed well for the rule-out threshold of 0.1% (sensitivity 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.99), negative LR 0.1 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.2) and for the rule-in threshold of 2.0% (specificity 0.94 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.95), positive LR 8.4 (95% CI 6.9 to 10.0)). The intermediate thresholds of 0.1%-2.0% performed poorly (ranges: sensitivity 0.59-0.93, negative LR 0.14-0.57, specificity 0.52-0.88, positive LR 1.9-4.8) and comprised 9784 patients (60%). Conclusions: The rule-out threshold of this model has potential to reduce antibiotic treatment while the rule-in threshold could be used to target treatment in febrile children at the ED. In more than half of patients at intermediate risk, sensitive biomarkers could improve identification of IBI and potentially reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Emergency medical services utilisation among febrile children attending emergency departments across Europe: an observational multicentre study

Children constitute 6-10% of all patients attending the emergency department (ED) by emergency medical services (EMS). However, discordant EMS use in children occurs in 37-61% with fever as an important risk factor. We aimed to describe EMS utilisation among febrile children attending European EDs. This study is part of an observational multicentre study assessing management and outcome in febrile children up to 18 years (MOFICHE) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. Discordant EMS use was defined as the absence of markers of urgency including intermediate/high triage urgency, advanced diagnostics, treatment, and admission in children transferred by EMS. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between (1) EMS use and markers of urgency, and (2) patient characteristics and discordant EMS use after adjusting all analyses for the covariates age, gender, visiting hours, presenting symptoms, and ED setting. A total of 5464 (15%, range 0.1-42%) children attended the ED by EMS. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in the EMS group compared with the non-EMS group. Discordant EMS use occurred in 1601 children (29%, range 1-59%). Age and gender were not associated with discordant EMS use, whereas neurological symptoms were associated with less discordant EMS use (aOR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1-0.2), and attendance out of office hours was associated with more discordant EMS use (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.4-1.9). Settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED had more discordant EMS use (p < 0.05).  Conclusion: There is large practice variation in EMS use in febrile children attending European EDs. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in children in the EMS group. However, discordant EMS use occurred in 29%. Further research is needed on non-medical factors influencing discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe, so that pre-emptive strategies can be implemented. What is Known: •Children constitute around 6-10% of all patients attending the emergency department by emergency medical services. •Discordant EMS use occurs in 37-61% of all children, with fever as most common presenting symptom for discordant EMS use in children. What is New: •There is large practice variation in EMS use among febrile children across Europe with discordance EMS use occurring in 29% (range 1-59%), which was associated with attendance during out of office hours and with settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED. •Future research is needed focusing on non-medical factors (socioeconomic status, parental preferences and past experience, healthcare systems, referral pathways, out of hours services provision) that influence discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe

Clinical characteristics of patients with tick-borne encephalitis (Tbe) : A European multicentre study from 2010 to 2017

Funding Information: Conflicts of Interest: W.Z. received financial support from GSK, Pfizer, Merck, and Sanofi for organizing the “Graz Vaccination Day”. Funding Information: Funding: This study was financially supported by Land Steiermark (Office of the Regional Government of Styria, Department of Health Care and Science, Unit of Science and Research, Austria). D.R., L.K. and M.P. were supported by the Czech Ministry of Health (grant No. NV19-05-00457). P.B. and F.S. were supported by the Slovenian Research Agency (grant. No P3-0296). Publisher Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is a major cause of central nervous system infections in endemic countries. Here, we present clinical and laboratory characteristics of a large international cohort of patients with confirmed TBE using a uniform clinical protocol. Patients were recruited in eight centers from six European countries between 2010 and 2017. A detailed description of clinical signs and symptoms was recorded. The obtained information enabled a reliable classification in 553 of 555 patients: 207 (37.3%) had meningitis, 273 (49.2%) meningoencephalitis, 15 (2.7%) meningomyelitis, and 58 (10.5%) meningoencephalomyelitis; 41 (7.4%) patients had a peripheral paresis of extremities, 13 (2.3%) a central paresis of extremities, and 25 (4.5%) had single or multiple cranial nerve palsies. Five (0.9%) patients died during acute illness. Outcome at discharge was recorded in 298 patients. Of 176 (59.1%) patients with incomplete recovery, 80 (27%) displayed persisting symptoms or signs without recovery expectation. This study provides further evidence that TBE is a severe disease with a large proportion of patients with incomplete recovery. We suggest monitoring TBE in endemic European countries using a uniform protocol to record the full clinical spectrum of the disease.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Diversity in the emergency care for febrile children in Europe : A questionnaire study

Publisher Copyright: © © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.Objective To provide an overview of care in emergency departments (EDs) across Europe in order to interpret observational data and implement interventions regarding the management of febrile children. Design and setting An electronic questionnaire was sent to the principal investigators of an ongoing study (PERFORM (Personalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management), www.perform2020.eu) in 11 European hospitals in eight countries: Austria, Germany, Greece, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain and the UK. Outcome measures The questionnaire covered indicators in three domains: local ED quality (supervision, guideline availability, paper vs electronic health records), organisation of healthcare (primary care, immunisation), and local factors influencing or reflecting resource use (availability of point-of-care tests, admission rates). Results Reported admission rates ranged from 4% to 51%. In six settings (Athens, Graz, Ljubljana, Riga, Rotterdam, Santiago de Compostela), the supervising ED physicians were general paediatricians, in two (Liverpool, London) these were paediatric emergency physicians, in two (Nijmegen, Newcastle) supervision could take place by either a general paediatrician or a general emergency physician, and in one (München) this could be either a general paediatrician or a paediatric emergency physician. The supervising physician was present on site in all settings during office hours and in five out of eleven settings during out-of-office hours. Guidelines for fever and sepsis were available in all settings; however, the type of guideline that was used differed. Primary care was available in all settings during office hours and in eight during out-of-office hours. There were differences in routine immunisations as well as in additional immunisations that were offered; immunisation rates varied between and within countries. Conclusion Differences in local, regional and national aspects of care exist in the management of febrile children across Europe. This variability has to be considered when trying to interpret differences in the use of diagnostic tools, antibiotics and admission rates. Any future implementation of interventions or diagnostic tests will need to be aware of this European diversity.Peer reviewe

Variation in hospital admission in febrile children evaluated at the Emergency Department (ED) in Europe : PERFORM, a multicentre prospective observational study

Funding Information: This project was funded by the European Union?s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme to ML (Grant No. 668303), the NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre at Newcastle Hospitals NHS foundation trust to ME, and the National Institute for Health Research to RGN (CL-2018-21-007). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Borensztajn et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.OBJECTIVES: Hospitalisation is frequently used as a marker of disease severity in observational Emergency Department (ED) studies. The comparison of ED admission rates is complex in potentially being influenced by the characteristics of the region, ED, physician and patient. We aimed to study variation in ED admission rates of febrile children, to assess whether variation could be explained by disease severity and to identify patient groups with large variation, in order to use this to reduce unnecessary health care utilization that is often due to practice variation. DESIGN: MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe, part of the PERFORM study, www.perform2020.org), is a prospective cohort study using routinely collected data on febrile children regarding patient characteristics (age, referral, vital signs and clinical alarming signs), diagnostic tests, therapy, diagnosis and hospital admission. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were collected on febrile children aged 0-18 years presenting to 12 European EDs (2017-2018). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We compared admission rates between EDs by using standardised admission rates after adjusting for patient characteristics and initiated tests at the ED, where standardised rates >1 demonstrate higher admission rates than expected and rates <1 indicate lower rates than expected based on the ED patient population. RESULTS: We included 38,120 children. Of those, 9.695 (25.4%) were admitted to a general ward (range EDs 5.1-54.5%). Adjusted standardised admission rates ranged between 0.6 and 1.5. The largest variation was seen in short admission rates (0.1-5.0), PICU admission rates (0.2-2.2), upper respiratory tract infections (0.4-1.7) and fever without focus (0.5-2.7). Variation was small in sepsis/meningitis (0.9-1.1). CONCLUSIONS: Large variation exists in admission rates of febrile children evaluated at European EDs, however, this variation is largely reduced after correcting for patient characteristics and therefore overall admission rates seem to adequately reflect disease severity or a potential for a severe disease course. However, for certain patient groups variation remains high even after adjusting for patient characteristics.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Impact of a clinical decision rule on antibiotic prescription for children with suspected lower respiratory tract infections presenting to European emergency departments : a simulation study based on routine data

Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: [email protected]: Discriminating viral from bacterial lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children is challenging thus commonly resulting in antibiotic overuse. The Feverkidstool, a validated clinical decision rule including clinical symptoms and C-reactive protein, safely reduced antibiotic use in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTIs in a multicentre trial at emergency departments (EDs) in the Netherlands. OBJECTIVES: Using routine data from an observational study, we simulated the impact of the Feverkidstool on antibiotic prescriptions compared with observed antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs at 12 EDs in eight European countries. METHODS: We selected febrile children aged 1 month to 5 years with respiratory symptoms and excluded upper respiratory tract infections. Using the Feverkidstool, we calculated individual risks for bacterial LRTI retrospectively. We simulated antibiotic prescription rates under different scenarios: (1) applying effect estimates on antibiotic prescription from the trial; and (2) varying both usage (50%-100%) and compliance (70%-100%) with the Feverkidstool's advice to withhold antibiotics in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI (≤10%). RESULTS: Of 4938 children, 4209 (85.2%) were at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI. Applying effect estimates from the trial, the Feverkidstool reduced antibiotic prescription from 33.5% to 24.1% [pooled risk difference: 9.4% (95% CI: 5.7%-13.1%)]. Simulating 50%-100% usage with 90% compliance resulted in risk differences ranging from 8.3% to 15.8%. Our simulations suggest that antibiotic prescriptions would be reduced in EDs with high baseline antibiotic prescription rates or predominantly (>85%) low/intermediate-risk children. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the Feverkidstool could reduce antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs in European EDs.publishersversionPeer reviewe

A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department : a European multicentre observational study of febrile children

Funding Information: DB, UB, EC, JD, ME, MF, NH, BK, FMT, HM, EL, ML, MP, IRC, FS, MT, CV, SY, DZ and WZ report grants from the European Union. Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme during the study conduct. FS reports a grant from the Slovenian Research Agency outside the submitted work. Funding Information: MP reports a grant from Pfizer and financial support from Pfizer and Sanofi outside the submitted work. MF reports a grant from CSL Behring outside the submitted work. RN reports a grant from the National Institute for Health Research during the study conduct. ME reports financial support from the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre based at Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University ng the study conduct. MT is a member of the Advisory Board of MSD and Pfizer, a member of the National Committee on Immunization Practices and a member of the national Scientific Advisory Group for the management of the pandemic. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s)Background: Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow. Methods: The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0–18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Findings: Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84). The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0.95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use. Interpretation: Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow. Funding: European Union, NIHR, NHS.publishersversionPeer reviewe