Modellgestütze Untersuchungen zum Einfluss großräumiger Faktoren auf die Tidedynamik in der Deutschen Bucht

Online First, geplanter Druck 202

Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity

We evaluate the prediction skill of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcast system for German Bight storm activity (GBSA) on a multiannual to decadal scale. We define GBSA every year via the most extreme 3-hourly geostrophic wind speeds, which are derived from mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data. Our 64-member ensemble of annually initialized hindcast simulations spans the time period 1960–2018. For this period, we compare deterministically and probabilistically predicted winter MSLP anomalies and annual GBSA with a lead time of up to 10 years against observations. The model produces poor deterministic predictions of GBSA and winter MSLP anomalies for individual years but fair predictions for longer averaging periods. A similar but smaller skill difference between short and long averaging periods also emerges for probabilistic predictions of high storm activity. At long averaging periods (longer than 5 years), the model is more skillful than persistence- and climatology-based predictions. For short aggregation periods (4 years and less), probabilistic predictions are more skillful than persistence but insignificantly differ from climatological predictions. We therefore conclude that, for the German Bight, probabilistic decadal predictions (based on a large ensemble) of high storm activity are skillful for averaging periods longer than 5 years. Notably, a differentiation between low, moderate, and high storm activity is necessary to expose this skill

Changes in compound flood event frequency in northern and central Europe under climate change

The simultaneous occurrence of increased river discharge and high coastal water levels may cause compound flooding. Compound flood events can potentially cause greater damage than the separate occurrence of the underlying extreme events, making them essential for risk assessment. Even though a general increase in the frequency and/or severity of compound flood events is assumed due to climate change, there have been very few studies conducted for larger regions of Europe. Our work, therefore, focuses on the high-resolution analysis of changes in extreme events of coastal water levels, river discharge, and their concurrent appearance at the end of this century in northern and central Europe (2070–2099). For this, we analyze downscaled data sets from two global climate models (GCMs) for the two emissions scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. First, we compare the historical runs of the downscaled GCMs to historical reconstruction data to investigate if they deliver comparable results for northern and central Europe. Then we study changes in the intensity of extreme events, their number, and the duration of extreme event seasons under climate change. Our analysis shows increases in compound flood events over the whole European domain, mostly due to the rising mean sea level. In some areas, the number of compound flood event days increases by a factor of eight at the end of the current century. This increase is concomitant with an increase in the annual compound flood event season duration. Furthermore, the sea level rise associated with a global warming of 2K will result in double the amounts of compound flood event days for nearly every European river estuary considered

A Multi-decadal Mediumresolution Wind, Wave and Storm Surge Hindcast Suitable for Coastal Applications. This Volume

Abstract A multi-decadal medium-resolution met-ocean hindcast for the North Sea and parts of the Northeast Atlantic is presented. The hindcast is based on a dynamical downscaling of the global NCEP/NCAR weather re-analyses using some simple data assimilation techniques. It is shown that the reconstructed wind, wave and storm surge climate agree reasonably with available in-situ observations. Analysis of the wind, wave and storm surge climate based on hindcast data reveals that they have undergone considerable variations from year to year and on longer time scales. An increase in storm activity from the beginning of the hindcast period has levelled off later and was replaced by a downward trend over the northeast North Atlantic. This behaviour closely corresponds to that based on the analysis of proxies for storm activity. Changes in extreme wave and storm surge conditions show a similar pattern over much of the North Sea area