A Multi-decadal Mediumresolution Wind, Wave and Storm Surge Hindcast Suitable for Coastal Applications. This Volume

Abstract

Abstract A multi-decadal medium-resolution met-ocean hindcast for the North Sea and parts of the Northeast Atlantic is presented. The hindcast is based on a dynamical downscaling of the global NCEP/NCAR weather re-analyses using some simple data assimilation techniques. It is shown that the reconstructed wind, wave and storm surge climate agree reasonably with available in-situ observations. Analysis of the wind, wave and storm surge climate based on hindcast data reveals that they have undergone considerable variations from year to year and on longer time scales. An increase in storm activity from the beginning of the hindcast period has levelled off later and was replaced by a downward trend over the northeast North Atlantic. This behaviour closely corresponds to that based on the analysis of proxies for storm activity. Changes in extreme wave and storm surge conditions show a similar pattern over much of the North Sea area

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