Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War

Civil wars impose substantial costs on the domestic economy. We empirically measure the economic impact of such internal wars. The paper contributes to the existing literature both theoretically and methodologically. First, it explores the economic channels through which civil war affects growth. Previous studies have shown the negative growth effects of civil wars. We go a step further by identifying the channels through which war strips a country of its growth potential. Our argument is that civil war negatively impacts private investment through the process of portfolio substitution. Methodologically, the paper improves on both the data and statistical models used in the existing literature. Our data set includes better measurements of the intensity and scope of civil war as well as new economic and political data for the 1990s. Moreover, using a multiple imputation technique, we minimize the estimation bias due to missing data. Finally, to improve the model, we apply fixed and random effects models to the panel data. The evidence gives strong support to our argument indicating that the driving force behind the negative effects of civil war on economic growth is a decrease in private investment.civil war, instability, economic growth, investment, fiscal balance

Where Do Riders Park Dockless, Shared Electric Scooters? Findings from San Jose, California

Dockless, shared, electric kick-scooters started popping up on U.S. city streets without warning in 2017. Reaction to the shared scooters came swiftly and strongly. On the one hand, the scooters have proven popular with riders, attracting investment capital and expanding service to additional cities. But others have been less enthusiastic, with a central complaint being how shared scooters are parked. This perspective explores the extent to which parked shared scooters pose a problem to others on streets, sidewalks, and public spaces, using empirical evidence documenting where scooters have been parked in downtown San Jose, California

Wave operator bounds for 1-dimensional Schr\"odinger operators with singular potentials and applications

Boundedness of wave operators for Schr\"odinger operators in one space dimension for a class of singular potentials, admitting finitely many Dirac delta distributions, is proved. Applications are presented to, for example, dispersive estimates and commutator bounds.Comment: 16 pages, 0 figure

Twisting arms and sending messages: Terrorist tactics in civil war

We examine the strategic rationale for terrorist tactics in civil war. We identify conditions that favor terrorism as a tactic in armed civil conflicts as well as the specific targets as a function of rebel characteristics, goals, and government responses to political demands. Terrorist tactics can be helpful as an instrument to coerce the government in asymmetric conflicts, as rebels are typically weak relative to the government. But terrorism can also help communicate the goals and resolve of a group when there is widespread uncertainty. We consider the strategic importance and rationale for terrorism in terms of the frequency of attacks and specific targets, and analyze our propositions using new data linking actors from the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data and the Global Terrorism Database. Consistent with our expectations, we find that terrorism is used more extensively in civil conflicts by weaker groups and when attacks can help the group convey its goals without undermining popular support. Groups with more inclusive audiences are more likely to focus on ‘hard’ or official targets, while groups with more sectarian audiences are more likely to attack ‘soft’ targets and civilians

A system of ODEs for a Perturbation of a Minimal Mass Soliton

We study soliton solutions to a nonlinear Schrodinger equation with a saturated nonlinearity. Such nonlinearities are known to possess minimal mass soliton solutions. We consider a small perturbation of a minimal mass soliton, and identify a system of ODEs similar to those from Comech and Pelinovsky (2003), which model the behavior of the perturbation for short times. We then provide numerical evidence that under this system of ODEs there are two possible dynamical outcomes, which is in accord with the conclusions of Pelinovsky, Afanasjev, and Kivshar (1996). For initial data which supports a soliton structure, a generic initial perturbation oscillates around the stable family of solitons. For initial data which is expected to disperse, the finite dimensional dynamics follow the unstable portion of the soliton curve.Comment: Minor edit

Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models

PMID: 23075284 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE] PMCID: PMC3500222 Free PMC ArticlePeer reviewedPublisher PD

Transcriptional profiling identifies an androgen receptor activity-low, stemness program associated with enzalutamide resistance.

The androgen receptor (AR) antagonist enzalutamide is one of the principal treatments for men with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). However, not all patients respond, and resistance mechanisms are largely unknown. We hypothesized that genomic and transcriptional features from metastatic CRPC biopsies prior to treatment would be predictive of de novo treatment resistance. To this end, we conducted a phase II trial of enzalutamide treatment (160 mg/d) in 36 men with metastatic CRPC. Thirty-four patients were evaluable for the primary end point of a prostate-specific antigen (PSA)50 response (PSA decline ≥50% at 12 wk vs. baseline). Nine patients were classified as nonresponders (PSA decline <50%), and 25 patients were classified as responders (PSA decline ≥50%). Failure to achieve a PSA50 was associated with shorter progression-free survival, time on treatment, and overall survival, demonstrating PSA50's utility. Targeted DNA-sequencing was performed on 26 of 36 biopsies, and RNA-sequencing was performed on 25 of 36 biopsies that contained sufficient material. Using computational methods, we measured AR transcriptional function and performed gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) to identify pathways whose activity state correlated with de novo resistance. TP53 gene alterations were more common in nonresponders, although this did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.055). AR gene alterations and AR expression were similar between groups. Importantly, however, transcriptional measurements demonstrated that specific gene sets-including those linked to low AR transcriptional activity and a stemness program-were activated in nonresponders. Our results suggest that patients whose tumors harbor this program should be considered for clinical trials testing rational agents to overcome de novo enzalutamide resistance

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin