Anthropic reasoning in multiverse cosmology and string theory

Anthropic arguments in multiverse cosmology and string theory rely on the weak anthropic principle (WAP). We show that the principle, though ultimately a tautology, is nevertheless ambiguous. It can be reformulated in one of two unambiguous ways, which we refer to as WAP_1 and WAP_2. We show that WAP_2, the version most commonly used in anthropic reasoning, makes no physical predictions unless supplemented by a further assumption of "typicality", and we argue that this assumption is both misguided and unjustified. WAP_1, however, requires no such supplementation; it directly implies that any theory that assigns a non-zero probability to our universe predicts that we will observe our universe with probability one. We argue, therefore, that WAP_1 is preferable, and note that it has the benefit of avoiding the inductive overreach characteristic of much anthropic reasoning.Comment: 7 pages. Expanded discussion of selection effects and some minor clarifications, as publishe

CORE and the Haldane Conjecture

The Contractor Renormalization group formalism (CORE) is a real-space renormalization group method which is the Hamiltonian analogue of the Wilson exact renormalization group equations. In an earlier paper\cite{QGAF} I showed that the Contractor Renormalization group (CORE) method could be used to map a theory of free quarks, and quarks interacting with gluons, into a generalized frustrated Heisenberg antiferromagnet (HAF) and proposed using CORE methods to study these theories. Since generalizations of HAF's exhibit all sorts of subtle behavior which, from a continuum point of view, are related to topological properties of the theory, it is important to know that CORE can be used to extract this physics. In this paper I show that despite the folklore which asserts that all real-space renormalization group schemes are necessarily inaccurate, simple Contractor Renormalization group (CORE) computations can give highly accurate results even if one only keeps a small number of states per block and a few terms in the cluster expansion. In addition I argue that even very simple CORE computations give a much better qualitative understanding of the physics than naive renormalization group methods. In particular I show that the simplest CORE computation yields a first principles understanding of how the famous Haldane conjecture works for the case of the spin-1/2 and spin-1 HAF.Comment: 36 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables, latex; extensive additions to conten

Prognostic Value of Number and Site of Calcified Coronary Lesions Compared With the Total Score

ObjectivesThis study sought to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of the number and sites of calcified coronary lesions and to compare the accuracy of number of calcified lesions with the extent of total calcium score.BackgroundThere is a strong relationship between mortality and total coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. It is not known whether the number of calcified lesions or their location influences outcome.MethodsA total of 14,759 asymptomatic patients were referred for evaluation of CAC scanning using electron beam tomography. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to estimate time to all-cause mortality at, on average, 6.8 years (n = 281).ResultsRisk-adjusted annual mortality was 0.19% (95% confidence interval 0.18% to 0.21%) for patients without any calcified lesions. For patients with >20 lesions, annual risk-adjusted mortality exceeded 2% per year. Mortality rates were significantly higher for left main lesions as compared to other coronary arteries with annual mortality rates of 1.3%, 2.1%, 9.2%, and 13.6% for 1 to 2, 3 to 5, and ≥6 lesions, respectively (p < 0.0001). For left main CAC scores of 0 to 10, 11 to 100, 101 to 399, and 400 to 999, annual risk-adjusted mortality was 0.33%, 0.81%, 1.73%, and 7.71%, respectively (p < 0.0001). All 4 patients with a CAC score of ≥1,000 in the left main died during follow-up. However, patients with more frequent calcified lesions also had higher CAC scores. Specifically, ≥81% of patients with >10 calcified lesions also had a CAC score ≥100. With exception, for patients with CAC scores ≥1,000, annual mortality was dramatically higher at 3.0% to 4.5% for those with 1 to 5 calcified lesions as compared with 1.1% to 2.0% for those with 6 or more lesions (p < 0.0001).ConclusionsWe report that mortality rates increased proportionally with the number of calcified lesions. Although predictive information is contained in the number of calcified lesions, its added statistical value is minimal. With exception, patients with frequent lesions in the left main or those with a few large calcified lesions have a particularly high mortality risk

Modeling the impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotype catch-up program using United States claims data

Background: Analysis of US claims data from April 2010 to June 2011 estimated that 39% of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) catch-up eligible cohort would ever receive the catch-up vaccination; a previous analysis assumed 87%. Methods: This updated figure was applied to a previously published 10-year Markov model while holding all other inputs constant. Results: Our model estimated that the catch-up program as currently implemented is estimated to prevent an additional 1.7 million cases of disease in children aged ≤59 months over a 10-year period, compared with routine PCV13 vaccination with no catch-up program. Conclusions: Because 39% catch-up uptake is less than the level of completion of the 4-dose primary PCV13 series, vaccine-preventable cases of pneumococcal disease and related deaths could be decreased further with additional uptake of catch-up vaccination in the catch-up eligible cohort

Centerscope

Centerscope, formerly Scope, was published by the Boston University Medical Center "to communicate the concern of the Medical Center for the development and maintenance of improved health care in contemporary society.

Communication: Analytic continuation of the virial series through the critical point using parametric approximants

The mathematical structure imposed by the thermodynamic critical point motivates an approximant that synthesizes two theoretically sound equations of state: the parametric and the virial. The former is constructed to describe the critical region, incorporating all scaling laws; the latter is an expansion about zero density, developed from molecular considerations. The approximant is shown to yield an equation of state capable of accurately describing properties over a large portion of the thermodynamic parameter space, far greater than that covered by each treatment alone

Effects of systematic asymmetric discounting on physician-patient interactions: a theoretical framework to explain poor compliance with lifestyle counseling

BACKGROUND: This study advances the use of a utility model to model physician-patient interactions from the perspectives of physicians and patients. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: In cases involving acute care, patient counseling involves a relatively straightforward transfer of information from the physician to a patient. The patient has less information than the physician on the impact the condition and its treatment have on utility. In decisions involving lifestyle changes, the patient may have more information than the physician on his/her utility of consumption; moreover, differences in discounting future health may contribute significantly to differences between patients' preferences and physicians' recommendations. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: The expectation of differences in internal discount rate between patients and their physicians is discussed. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: This utility model provides a conceptual basis for the finding that educational approaches alone may not effect changes in patient behavior and suggests other economic variables that could be targeted in the attempt to produce healthier behavior

Upper limits on the strength of periodic gravitational waves from PSR J1939+2134

The first science run of the LIGO and GEO gravitational wave detectors presented the opportunity to test methods of searching for gravitational waves from known pulsars. Here we present new direct upper limits on the strength of waves from the pulsar PSR J1939+2134 using two independent analysis methods, one in the frequency domain using frequentist statistics and one in the time domain using Bayesian inference. Both methods show that the strain amplitude at Earth from this pulsar is less than a few times $10^{-22}$.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, to appear in the Proceedings of the 5th Edoardo Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves, Tirrenia, Pisa, Italy, 6-11 July 200

Improving the sensitivity to gravitational-wave sources by modifying the input-output optics of advanced interferometers

We study frequency dependent (FD) input-output schemes for signal-recycling interferometers, the baseline design of Advanced LIGO and the current configuration of GEO 600. Complementary to a recent proposal by Harms et al. to use FD input squeezing and ordinary homodyne detection, we explore a scheme which uses ordinary squeezed vacuum, but FD readout. Both schemes, which are sub-optimal among all possible input-output schemes, provide a global noise suppression by the power squeeze factor, while being realizable by using detuned Fabry-Perot cavities as input/output filters. At high frequencies, the two schemes are shown to be equivalent, while at low frequencies our scheme gives better performance than that of Harms et al., and is nearly fully optimal. We then study the sensitivity improvement achievable by these schemes in Advanced LIGO era (with 30-m filter cavities and current estimates of filter-mirror losses and thermal noise), for neutron star binary inspirals, and for narrowband GW sources such as low-mass X-ray binaries and known radio pulsars. Optical losses are shown to be a major obstacle for the actual implementation of these techniques in Advanced LIGO. On time scales of third-generation interferometers, like EURO/LIGO-III (~2012), with kilometer-scale filter cavities, a signal-recycling interferometer with the FD readout scheme explored in this paper can have performances comparable to existing proposals. [abridged]Comment: Figs. 9 and 12 corrected; Appendix added for narrowband data analysi