Sustainable Water Use in Arid Agricultural Areas Based on System Dynamics and Water Footprint: a Case Study of Zhangjiakou City, China

The water resource is an indispensable natural capital for human production and life. On the one hand, insufficient water resources and uneven temporal and spatial distribution in arid agricultural areas are the objective reasons for restricting social and economic development and fragile ecological environment. On the other hand, socio-economic development occupies a large amount of ecological water, especially the unscientific planning and unreasonable expansion of irrigated agriculture, which makes a large amount of water wasted. Therefore, in this study, Zhangjiakou, China, a city with less than 400 m3 of water per capita per year, was taken as a case study area to explore the sustainable use of water in arid agricultural areas from the perspective of blue water (surface water and groundwater) and green water (soil water). First, a complex system dynamics model, reflecting the relationships between the water resources subsystem and other socioeconomic subsystems in Zhangjiakou City, was established using Vensim PLE to simulate water demand (2015-2035) in four designed alternative development scenarios: the Current Development Scenario (CDS), the Economic Priority Scenario (EPS), the Water-saving Priority Scenario (WPS), and the Balanced Development Scenarios (BDS). Secondly, with the help of CropWat 8.0, the water footprint and its spatiotemporal characteristics and variations of the main crops in Zhangjiakou City for 2005, 2010, and 2015 were estimated. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis of blue water, green water, and food productivity and economic benefits of water footprint was further investigated by introducing three new indicators, i.e., green water footprint occupancy rate, blue water footprint deficit, and virtual water consumption per GDP. Finally, from the perspective of the ecological zone, the spatiotemporal matching characteristics of agricultural water footprint and socioeconomic factors were analyzed using the Gini coefficient and imbalance index. The main findings are as follows: The variables related to irrigation farmland are the main driving factors of water demand, especially the area and the average water consumption of irrigated land. Therefore, reducing the area of irrigated farmland and improving the efficiency of agricultural irrigation water will be the main direction of water-saving in Zhangjiakou City. But it is vital to consider various factors, e.g., agricultural GDP and farmers’ income, to determine the degree of reduction of irrigation area. Besides, in the four development scenarios, regardless of which development model is chosen, the water demand per ten thousand yuan GDP will eventually fall to around 20 m3 in 2035. Therefore, reducing water demand only by slowing down economic growth cannot improve the efficiency of water use, and even result in inefficiency of water supply capacity. Zhangjiakou City should adopt a dynamic and efficient water-saving model that not only sustains regional socio-economic development but also protects ecological security in the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The total water footprint requirement of Zhangjiakou City increased from 1.671 billion m3 in 2005 to 1.852 billion m3 in 2015, of which the ratio of green water to blue water was around two. The total water footprint requirement in the counties of the mountainous Bashang area is lower than those of the Baxia area, and the gap between them was further expanding. The green water footprint occupancy rate in counties of the Bashang area was 43%-49%, with an average of 44%, while it was 51%-59% in counties of the Baxia area, with an average of 54%. The highest green water footprint occupancy rate in a year was from May to August, at 58%-83%. In terms of blue water footprint deficit, in general, it was lower in the Bashang area than in the Baxia area. The changing trends in food production and economic benefits of water footprint were not always the same. Therefore, it is necessary to consider them simultaneously when developing policies from the perspective of water footprint. The agricultural water footprint of Zhangjiakou City increased from 3.61billion m3 in 2005 to 5.30 billion m3 in 2015, an increase of 1.69 billion m3, of which the water footprint of animal products increased by 1.59 billion m3. Therefore, in addition to continuing to optimize the planting structure, implement efficient water-saving irrigation measures, and control the water footprint of crops, the government needs to strictly prohibit overload grazing and develop modern animal husbandry to reduce the water footprint of animal products, especially in counties of high-altitude ecological zones I, II and IV. The Gini coefficient and the imbalance index of agricultural water footprint and socioeconomic factors indicate that the spatial distribution of agricultural water footprint and planting area, population, agricultural GDP was relatively balanced, but there were still some significant differences. It means that the adjustment of the agricultural structure in each county requires a comprehensive consideration of multiple socioeconomic factors

Semi‐supervised joint learning for longitudinal clinical events classification using neural network models

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163377/2/sta4305.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163377/1/sta4305_am.pd

Pulmonary imaging abnormalities in an adult case of congenital lobar emphysema.

Congenital lobar emphysema is mainly diagnosed in infants, although rare cases are reported in adults. A 20-yr-old female with acute dyspnea, chest pain and left upper lobe (LUL) chest x-ray hyperlucency underwent 3He magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for ventilation and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measurements, as well as CT for emphysema and airway wall measurements. Forced expiratory volume in 1s, residual volume, and airways-resistance were abnormal, but there was normal carbon-monoxide-diffusing-capacity. The LUL relative area of the density histogra

Research and application of GEP: China’s experience in natural capital accounting

In 2013, for raising the awareness of policymakers and researchers on the economic value of ecosystem services, GEP (Gross Ecosystem Product) was proposed by Chinese scholars. As a new attempt at ecosystem services evaluation, GEP has been widely accepted in China and is often used to reveal the effectiveness of regional ecological protection and the relationship between humans and nature. However, there is currently a lack of a systematic review of GEP research. In this study, we found that: 1) GEP can reflect the overall situation of ecological environment and service quality, and help decision-makers and managers formulate and implement sustainable development strategies and ecological protection policies. 2) The contradiction between the depletion of global ecosystem capital and the development of people’s livelihood continues to intensify. About 68.7% of developing countries are facing a “low-low development (low GEP and low GDP)” model. 3) We have constructed the path model of the GEP working system and the path model of ecological protection compensation mechanism in China. The GEP accounting system of “from point to area, from top to bottom”, the parallel evaluation strategy of GDP and GEP and the comprehensive ecological compensation system of “vertical and horizontal combination” implemented can be popularized to countries all over the world

Interregional and intersectoral interaction of digital economy in China

With the continuous advancement of the integration of the world’s digital economy, the economic development of various regions has become increasingly interdependent. However, the interregional interactions of digital industries have yet to be further elucidated. Here, based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output model, we take China, for example, and analyze the impact of digital industries on the economy from the industrial and regional. At the industry level, we discuss the economic spillover relationship between the digital industry and the three traditional industries, and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation in the inter-industry spillover status of China’s 30 provinces; at the regional level, we discuss the digital industrial economic spillover links and spillover states. The results show that: 1) The self-generating ability within the digital industry sector is the most significant factor influencing the industrial growth of China’s digital economy, followed by the interrelated effect between industry sectors, while the inter-industry feedback effect has a weak impact on the economic system. 2) There is a clear gap in the economic spillover capacity of the digital industry in 30 provinces, and the overall performance is decreasing in the eastern, central and western regions. 3) The intra-regional multiplier effect of digital industry shows a slowly decreasing trend, and the intra-regional digital economic spillover-feedback effect shows a growing trend. At the same time, the inter-regional digital economy interaction tends to decay in distance, indicating that regional accessibility has a significant impact on the inter-regional spillover effect

Exosome delivery to the testes for dmrt1 suppression: a powerful tool for sex-determining gene studies

Exosomes are endosome-derived extracellular vesicles about 100 nm in diameter. They are emerging as prom ising delivery platforms due to their advantages in biocompatibility and engineerability. However, research into and applications for engineered exosomes are still limited to a few areas of medicine in mammals. Here, we expanded the scope of their applications to sex-determining gene studies in early vertebrates. An integrated strategy for constructing the exosome-based delivery system was developed for efficient regulation of dmrt1, which is one of the most widely used sex-determining genes in metazoans. By combining classical methods in molecular biology and the latest technology in bioinformatics, isomiR-124a was identified as a dmrt1 inhibitor and was loaded into exosomes and a testis-targeting peptide was used to modify exosomal surface for efficient delivery. Results showed that isomiR-124a was efficiently delivered to the testes by engineered exosomes and revealed that dmrt1 played important roles in maintaining the regular structure and function of testis in juvenile fish. This is the first de novo development of an exosome-based delivery system applied in the study of sex determining gene, which indicates an attractive prospect for the future applications of engineered exosomes in exploring more extensive biological conundrums.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio