Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry–climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models’ water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere

Recommendations for Next‐Generation Ground Magnetic Perturbation Validation

Data‐model validation of ground magnetic perturbation forecasts, specifically of the time rate of change of surface magnetic field, dB/dt, is a critical task for model development and for mitigation of geomagnetically induced current effects. While a current, community‐accepted standard for dB/dt validation exists (Pulkkinen et al., 2013), it has several limitations that prevent more complete understanding of model capability. This work presents recommendations from the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment Ground Magnetic Perturbation Working Team for creating a next‐generation validation suite. Four recommendations are made to address the existing suite: greatly expand the number of ground observatories used, expand the number of events included in the suite from six to eight, generate metrics as a function of magnetic local time, and generate metrics as a function of activity type. For each of these, implementation details are explored. Limitations and future considerations are also discussed.Plain Language SummarySpace weather forecast models of magnetic field perturbations are important for protecting the power grid and other vulnerable infrastructure. These models must be validated by comparing their predictions to observations. This paper makes recommendations for how future models should be validated in order to best test their capabilities.Key PointsWe present a new validation suite for models of ground magnetic perturbations, dB/dt, of interest for geomagnetically induced currentsThe existing standard remains useful but provides limited information, so an expanded set of metrics is defined hereThis work is a result of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment and represents a new community consensusPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147786/1/swe20777_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147786/2/swe20777.pd

Self-Consistent Quasi-Particle RPA for the Description of Superfluid Fermi Systems

Self-Consistent Quasi-Particle RPA (SCQRPA) is for the first time applied to a more level pairing case. Various filling situations and values for the coupling constant are considered. Very encouraging results in comparison with the exact solution of the model are obtained. The nature of the low lying mode in SCQRPA is identified. The strong reduction of the number fluctuation in SCQRPA vs BCS is pointed out. The transition from superfluidity to the normal fluid case is carefully investigated.Comment: 23 pages, 18 figures and 1 table, submitted to Phys. Rev.

The theta^+ baryon in soliton models: large Nc QCD and the validity of rigid-rotor quantization

A light collective theta+ baryon state (with strangeness +1) was predicted via rigid-rotor collective quantization of SU(3) chiral soliton models. This paper explores the validity of this treatment. A number of rather general analyses suggest that predictions of exotic baryon properties based on this approximation do not follow from large Nc QCD. These include an analysis of the baryon's width, a comparison of the predictions with general large Nc consistency conditions of the Gervais-Sakita-Dashen-Manohar type; an application of the technique to QCD in the limit where the quarks are heavy; a comparison of this method with the vibration approach of Callan and Klebanov; and the 1/Nc scaling of the excitation energy. It is suggested that the origin of the problem lies in an implicit assumption in the that the collective motion is orthogonal to vibrational motion. While true for non-exotic motion, the Wess-Zumino term induces mixing at leading order between collective and vibrational motion with exotic quantum numbers. This suggests that successful phenomenological predictions of theta+ properties based on rigid-rotor quantization were accidental.Comment: 19 pages; A shorter more readable versio

The handbook for standardised field and laboratory measurements in terrestrial climate-change experiments and observational studies

Climate change is a worldwide threat to biodiversity and ecosystem structure, functioning, and services. To understand the underlying drivers and mechanisms, and to predict the consequences for nature and people, we urgently need better understanding of the direction and magnitude of climate‐change impacts across the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. An increasing number of climate‐change studies is creating new opportunities for meaningful and high‐quality generalisations and improved process understanding. However, significant challenges exist related to data availability and/or compatibility across studies, compromising opportunities for data re‐use, synthesis, and upscaling. Many of these challenges relate to a lack of an established “best practice” for measuring key impacts and responses. This restrains our current understanding of complex processes and mechanisms in terrestrial ecosystems related to climate change

Modelling the response of wheat canopy assimilation to atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

The predictive capacity of two simulation models with different degrees of complexity for the calculation of assimilate production, was tested at different time scales, using a data set of wheat grown in an open-top-chamber experiment at two CO2 concentrations. Observed values of net canopy assimilation (Pn) were obtained from wheat plants grown at ambient (410 ?mol mol1) and elevated (680 ?mol mol1) CO2 mole fractions. Pn was simulated by using either simple multiple regression equations (AFRCWHEAT2) or by highly detailed calculations of leaf energy balances and the coupling of photosynthesis with stomatal conductance (LINTULCC2). Irrespective of the developmental stage of the crop or variation in weather, the models accurately simulated canopy assimilation and growth. We conclude that the response of aboveground-biomass production to elevated CO2 concentrations was explained primarily by the effects of CO2 on radiation-use efficiency and assimilate production. The models explained satisfactorily the daily course of Pn, its integrated daily totals, and the seasonally produced aboveground biomass, both at ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations. Specific problems in the simulations were identified and discussed