Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations. This paper identifies three ideal types: external FTA services, the institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary. In empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understand how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruption

Foresight as a governance tool to help shape the next production revolution

The next production revolution (NPR; also called Industry 4.0 elsewhere) is likely to trigger complex changes via the interactions of new technologies, materials, processes, and business models. These changes would affect R&D and innovation activities; the labour market; income distribution and well-being; skill requirements; as well as several fields of regulation. Furthermore, digitalisation can be a major enabler of the circular economy. The policy implications of the NPR are so wide-ranging that it is difficult to mention a major policy domain, which would remain untouched by these sweeping changes. The need for policy orchestration is, therefore, rather strong. Foresight, a specific type of forward-looking activities (FLA), can assist policy-makers in dealing with these complex changes. First, it facilitates a systemic approach, considers multiple futures and draws on the diverse set of knowledge of participants. Second, a shared vision, developed – and thus ‘owned’ – by the participants, can reduce the uncertainties generated by NPR, and it helps building commitment among participants as an additional factor to keep up the momentum of orchestrated policy design and implementation. Third, a transformative foresight process, considering and assisting systemic changes triggered by NPR, can contribute to reshaping the prevailing power structures and invigorating policy rationales, decision-making processes, and thus improving the efficacy of policies. FLA projects dealing with NPR issues vary in their thematic coverage and their breadth of participation. Combining these distinctions, four different archetypes of FLA are identified – and illustrated by actual cases – in the paper. The expected impacts on policy-making vary by the type of prospective analyses. Participatory processes mobilise a wider set of knowledge, aspirations, and worldviews compared to an expert-based project. Hence, more novel ideas can be expected, contested from various angles, hence tested more thoroughly, given the diversity of participants. FLA projects focusing on innovation and manufacturing systems consider a broader set of issues than S&T-centred projects. Given the complex issues brought about by the NPR, such a systemic approach seems to be more appropriate as a foundation for devising effective policies. In certain contexts, S&T-centred FLA can also be useful, but different and only more limited benefits and impacts can arise from this approach. Foresight benefits are far from being automatic: the paper considers eight critical factors to achieve those. An astute embedding of foresight into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions

The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution

Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution. As shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement. Given its participatory nature, key actors are mobilised to form shared views about the future, negotiate their future stakes and interests, and agree on actions aligned to their shared vision. The next production revolution requires quick and proactive policy-making, as well as better orchestration across different policy domains. Foresight can assist policy-makers by providing foundations for robust policies, fostering new framing of policy issues, as well as translating long-term concerns into aligned policy priorities. Furthermore, policy implementation is likely to be faster and more effective when key stakeholders are involved early on in shaping these policies. Foresight benefits, however, are far from being automatic: the chapter considers eight factors critical to achieving those. An astute embedding of a foresight process into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions

The ‘fit’ between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts

Forward-looking activities (FLAs) can influence innovation systems in various ways to a significant extent. This paper focuses on changes induced by FLAs in the innovation policy governance sub-systems (IPGSs) of the national innovation system (NIS). Our knowledge is surprisingly limited even on this subset of FLA impacts, despite several decades of practice and non-negligible analytical efforts. We propose new taxonomies of FLAs and IPGSs and explore hypotheses on the likely 'fit' between different types of FLAs and various IPGSs. Countries selected to illustrate the relevance of our analytical framework include Germany, Greece, and Hungary. Our intention is contribute to a more refined theory building concerning the role and likely impacts of FLAs. Further, as a better understanding of impacts supports the design of more appropriate and effective FLAs, as well as more insightful evaluation of FLAs, this approach is of practical relevance, too

Strange matter in rotating compact stars

We have constructed equations of state involving various exotic forms of matter with large strangeness fraction such as hyperon matter, Bose-Einstein condensates of antikaons and strange quark matter. First order phase transitions from hadronic to antikaon condensed and quark matter are considered here. The hadronic phase is described by the relativistic field theoretical model. Later those equations of state are exploited to investigate models of uniformly rotating compact stars. The effect of rotation on the third family branch for the equation of state involving only antikaon condensates is investigated. We also discuss the back bending phenomenon due to a first order phase transition from $K^-$ condensed to quark matter.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures; Plenary talk delivered at Strangeness in Quark Matter (SQM) 2004 held in Cape Town, South Africa from 15-20 September; Accepted for publication in the proceedings in Journal of Physics

Identification of novel Cyclooxygenase-2-dependent genes in Helicobacter pylori infection in vivo

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Helicobacter pylori </it>is a crucial determining factor in the pathogenesis of benign and neoplastic gastric diseases. Cyclooxygenase-2 (Cox-2) is the inducible key enzyme of arachidonic acid metabolism and is a central mediator in inflammation and cancer. Expression of the <it>Cox-2 </it>gene is up-regulated in the gastric mucosa during <it>H. pylori </it>infection but the pathobiological consequences of this enhanced Cox-2 expression are not yet characterized. The aim of this study was to identify novel genes down-stream of Cox-2 in an <it>in vivo </it>model, thereby identifying potential targets for the study of the role of Cox- 2 in <it>H. pylori </it>pathogenesis and the initiation of pre- cancerous changes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Gene expression profiles in the gastric mucosa of mice treated with a specific Cox-2 inhibitor (NS398) or vehicle were analysed at different time points (6, 13 and 19 wk) after <it>H. pylori </it>infection. <it>H. pylori </it>infection affected the expression of 385 genes over the experimental period, including regulators of gastric physiology, proliferation, apoptosis and mucosal defence. Under conditions of Cox-2 inhibition, 160 target genes were regulated as a result of <it>H. pylori </it>infection. The Cox-2 dependent subset included those influencing gastric physiology (<it>Gastrin, Galr1</it>), epithelial barrier function (<it>Tjp1, connexin45, Aqp5</it>), inflammation (<it>Icam1</it>), apoptosis (<it>Clu</it>) and proliferation (<it>Gdf3, Igf2</it>). Treatment with NS398 alone caused differential expression of 140 genes, 97 of which were unique, indicating that these genes are regulated under conditions of basal Cox-2 expression.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study has identified a panel of novel Cox-2 dependent genes influenced under both normal and the inflammatory conditions induced by <it>H. pylori </it>infection. These data provide important new links between Cox-2 and inflammatory processes, epithelial repair and integrity.</p

Ingestion of colostrum from specific cows induces Bovine Neonatal Pancytopenia (BNP) in some calves

Background: Since 2006, cases of haemorrhagic diathesis in young calves have been observed with a much higher incidence than previously known. The syndrome, now uniformly called Bovine Neonatal Pancytopenia (BNP), is characterized by multiple (external and internal) haemorrhages, thrombocytopenia, leukocytopenia, and bone marrow depletion. Although various infectious and toxicological causes of bleeding disorders in calves have been ruled out, the aetiology of BNP remains unknown. However, field observations have led to the hypothesis that the aetiological principle may be transmitted to calves via colostrum. The objective of the present study was to verify whether ingestion of colostrum from dams of known BNP calves can elicit signs of BNP and typical haematological findings in conveniently selected neonatal calves. Six such calves received one feeding of colostrum (or a mixture of colostrum batches) from dams of known BNP calves. As controls, another six conveniently selected calves from herds which had never had a BNP case received one feeding of colostrum from their own dams. Haematological and clinical parameters were monitored. Results: One of the six experimental calves never showed any haematological, clinical or pathological evidence of BNP. In the other five calves, thrombocyte and leukocyte counts dropped within a few hours following ingestion of colostrum. Of those, three calves developed clinical signs of BNP, their post-mortem examination revealed bone marrow depletion. Of the remaining two calves, a pair of mixed twins, marked thrombocytopenia and recurrent leukocytopenia was evident in one, in which only slight changes in the bone marrow were detected, while in the other thrombocyte counts dropped, but rebounded later, and no bone marrow changes were noted. Thrombocyte counts of the experimental calves were statistically significantly lower than those of the control calves at 2 hours post ingestion of colostrum and at every sampling point between 9 hours and 8 days postcolostral. Leucocyte counts of the experimental calves were statistically significantly lower than those of control calves at 2 hours post ingestion of colostrum and 3-7 days postcolostral. Conclusions: BNP can be induced in some calves by ingestion of colostrum from cows that have given birth to BNP calves

Electrochemical Impedance Analysis of Symmetrical Ni/Gadolinium-Doped Ceria (CGO10) Electrodes in Electrolyte-Supported Solid Oxide Cells

One of the most powerful tools in solid oxide cell (SOC) characterization is electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, which can unfold important insights into SOC performance characteristics and degradation behavior. To obtain a better understanding of the electrochemical behavior of Ni/CGO fuel electrodes, this work presents a comprehensive investigation of state-of-the-art Ni/CGO10- based electrolyte-supported cells. Commercial Ni/CGO10|CGO10|3YSZ|CGO10|Ni/CGO10 symmetrical cells were characterized between 550–975°C at pH2 = 0.8 bar and pH2O = 0.2 bar, and for different H2/H2O gas mixtures at 550°C. (i) Small electrode area, (ii) thin electrodes and (iii) large gas flow rates were used to minimize mass transport contributions. Based on distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis an equivalent circuit model was derived. Electrode process contributions on Ni/CGO were determined by means of a complex non-linear least square fit of the equivalent circuit model to the experimental data. One low frequency process at 0.1–1 Hz and one middle frequency process at 10–100 Hz were identified and correlated to a surface and a bulk process, respectively. Values for the apparent activation energy barriers and reaction orders with respect to steam and hydrogen content were determine