Perspectiva crítica de algunos aspectos de la propuesta de la Comisión de la Unión Europea de Reglamento del Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo por el que se modifica el Reglamento (CE) 883/2004 sobre la coordinación de los sistemas de Seguridad Social y el Reglamento (CE) 987/2009 por el que se establece el procedimiento de ejecución del Reglamento (CE) 883/2004

The Commission presented on 13 December 2016 new proposals for amending the coordination of social security systems. For frontier workers there should be a shift of competence for unemployment benefits: according to the current regulation the country of residence is competent. The Commission wants to make the country of former employment competent after one year of employment in that country. The Commission proposes also the extension of the period an unemployment benefit has to be exported.The Commission intends with the proposal to render the coordination rules of LTC more transparent and visible for the citizen. In terms of LTC the Commission therefore proposes mainly the following modifications: definition of LTC; establishing a detailed list of LTC benefits and creation of a new chapter on coordination of LTC.La Comisión presentó el 13 de diciembre de 2016 nuevas propuestas de modificación de la coordinación de los sistemas de seguridad social. Para los trabajadores fronterizos debería haber un cambio de competencia para las prestaciones de desempleo: según la normativa vigente, el país de residencia es competente. La Comisión desea que el país de empleo anterior sea competente después de un año de empleo en ese país. La Comisión propone también la prórroga del período de exportación de la prestación de desempleo. La Comisión aspira con la propuesta de reforma hacer las normas de coordinación de las prestaciones de cuidados de larga duración (dependencia) más transparente y visible para el ciudadano. Por lo tanto, en lo que se refiere a las prestaciones por cuidados de larga duración, la Comisión propone principalmente las siguientes modificaciones: definición de la prestación, establecimiento de una lista detallada de beneficios de dependencia y la creación de un nuevo capítulo sobre coordinación de esta prestación

When, how fast and by how much do trade costs change in the euro area?

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral trade while controlling for unobserved but time-variant variables at the sector level. We find that, due to falling trade costs, trade within the euro area increases between the years 2000 and 2003 by 10 to 20 percent compared with trade between European countries that are not members of the euro area. Adjustment of individual sectors is extremely fast whereas aggregate adjustment spreads out because different sectors adjust at distinct times. --

When, How Fast and by How Much do Trade Costs change in the Euro Area?

Microfoundations of the euro’s effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral trade while controlling for unobserved but time-variant variables at the sector level. We find that, due to falling trade costs, trade within the euro area increases between the years 2000 and 2003 by 10 to 20 percent compared with trade between European countries that are not members of the euro area. Adjustment of individual sectors is extremely fast whereas aggregate adjustment spreads out because different sectors adjust at distinct times.Euro trade effect, gravity model, smooth transition, Kalman filter

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost all empirical contributions assume and estimate a linear relationship. Possible nonlinearity or state dependence of causal links between FX uncertainty and trade has been mostly ignored yet. In addition, widely used regression models have not been evaluated in terms of ex-ante forecasting. In this paper we analyze the impact of FX uncertainty on sectoral categories of multilateral exports and imports for 15 industrialized economies. We particularly provide a comparison of linear and nonlinear models with respect to ex-ante forecasting. In terms of average ranks of absolute forecast errors nonlinear models outperform both, a common linear model and some specification building on the assumption that FX uncertainty and trade growth are uncorrelated. Our results support the view that the relationship of interest might be nonlinear and, moreover, lacks of homogeneity across countries, economic sectors and when contrasting imports vs. exports.Exchange Rate Uncertainty, GARCH, Forecasting, International Trade, Nonlinear Models.

When, how fast and by how much do trade costs change in the euro area?

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral trade while controlling for unobserved but time-variant variables at the sector level. We find that, due to falling trade costs, trade within the euro area increases between the years 2000 and 2003 by 10 to 20 percent compared with trade between European countries that are not members of the euro area. Adjustment of individual sectors is extremely fast whereas aggregate adjustment spreads out because different sectors adjust at distinct times. --

The 'but for' test and other devices: the role of hypothetical events in the law

'Das Recht kann als ein auf Tatsachen ausgerichtetes Regelsystem zur sozialen Steuerung menschlichen Verhaltens angesehen werden. Es enthält auch Regeln für angemessene Sanktionen bei Regelverstößen. In solchen Fällen steht das konkrete Verhalten einer Person - was sie tatsächlich tut oder getan hat - im Zentrum aller Erwägungen zur Tatbestandsverwirklichung und zu den möglichen Rechtsfolgen. Insoweit solche Tatsachen jedoch der Feststellung oder der Bewertung bedürfen, etwa vor Gericht, kann es hilfreich und manchmal sogar notwendig sein, den realen Ereignissen oder Entwicklungen alternative, kontrafaktische gegenüberzustellen und sie mit diesen zu vergleichen (In der Rechtssprache ist bei Letzteren gewöhnlich von 'hypothetischen' Ereignissen oder Entwicklungen die Rede.). Dies gilt insbesondere im Zusammenhang von Kausalitäts- und Schadensersatzfragen. In dem Vortrag sollen einige Beispiele solcher Fragen gegeben werden, vorwiegend auf der Grundlage des deutschen und des englischen Rechts, und es soll gezeigt werden, wie Erwägungen zum Kontrafaktischen nützliche Hilfsmittel bei der Beantwortung von Fragen im Faktischen sein können.' (Autorenreferat)'The law can be regarded as a fact-orientated system of rules for the social steering of human behaviour. Included are rules for adequate reactions to contravening behaviour. In such cases, the actual conduct of a person - what he or she is doing or has done in fact - is the central element of all considerations. In so far, however, as such facts need to be ascertained or evaluated, e.g. in litigation, it can be helpful and sometimes even necessary to juxtapose and compare real events and developments with alternate, counterfactual ones. (In legal parlance the latter are usually 'hypothetical' events or developments.) This is true, in particular, in the contexts of questions as to causation and damages. The paper is intended to give some illustrations, mainly taken from German and English law, and to show how considerations of a counterfactual nature can be useful tools for solving problems as to facts.' (author's abstract

When, How Fast and by How much do Trade Costs change in the EURO Area?

Microfoundations of the euro’s effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral trade while controlling for unobserved but time-variant variables at the sector level. We find that, due to falling trade costs, trade within the euro area increases between the years 2000 and 2003 by 10 to 20 percent compared with trade between European countries that are not members of the euro area. Adjustment of individual sectors is extremely fast whereas aggregate adjustment spreads out because different sectors adjust at distinct times

Keterintegrasian dan perkembangan industri pedesaan: studi kasus di dua desa di Klaten dan Gunung Kidul

Abstract This study examines the linkages within industry and between industry and the rest of rural economy. Its impacts on the integration of economy at local level is also examined. It especially focuses on the interactions of rural sector and their effects on the development of industry. By applying growth linkages analysis the study found that the linkages between industry and other sectors are relatively weak. This conditions had hampered the development of rural industries. Keywords: industri pedesaa

Choice and Success of Job Search Methods

Job seekers can influence the arrival rate of job offers by the choice of search effort and the search methods they use. In this paper we empirically investigate the contribution of the use of different search methods on the outcome of search. Using unique data on the search behaviour of job seekers sampled from the inflow into employment during the year 1997 in Austria we analyse the quality of job matches in terms of wages and job durations. We find evidence for endogenous selection to the job matching channels. Persons with few social contacts or lower unobserved ability are more likely to be matched by the public employment service. Hence we conclude that selection may contribute to the unfavourable wage outcomes for jobs generated by the public employment service.Job search, Search channels, Selectivity bias