Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case withStreptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.Peer reviewe

Norovirus and Sapovirus Epidemiology and Strain Characteristics among Navajo and Apache Infants.

Norovirus and sapovirus are important causes of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) among American Indian infants. We investigated the prevalence and molecular epidemiology of norovirus and sapovirus in American Indian infants who have historically experienced a high burden of AGE compared to other US populations. Stool samples were collected from 241 children with AGE (cases) and from 343 infants without AGE (controls) ≤9 months of age from 2002-2004. Cases experienced forceful vomiting and/or 3 or more watery or looser-than-normal stools in 24 hours. Stools were tested by real-time RT-PCR for norovirus GI, GII and GIV and sapovirus GI, GII, GIV and GV. Positive samples were genotyped after sequencing conventional RT-PCR products. Norovirus was identified in 76 (31.5%) of the cases and 70 (20.4%) of the controls (p<0.001). GII.3 and GII.4 Farmington Hills were the most frequently identified genotypes in 14.5% and 30.3% of cases and 17.1% and 27.1% of controls, respectively. Sapovirus GI and GII genotypes were identified in 8 (3.3%) of cases and 8 (2.3%) of controls and a single GIV virus was detected in a control. The same norovirus and sapovirus genotypes were circulating in the general U.S. population in the same time period. The high detection rate of norovirus in healthy controls suggests significant asymptomatic transmission in young infants in these communities

Percent of enteric virus co-infections with norovirus or sapovirus.

<p>Percent of enteric virus co-infections with norovirus or sapovirus.</p

Norovirus genotype distribution among cases and healthy controls.

<p>Norovirus genotype distribution among cases and healthy controls.</p

The burden of Staphylococcus aureus among Native Americans on the Navajo Nation.

INTRODUCTION:Native Americans in the southwestern United States have a higher risk for many infectious diseases and may be at higher risk for Staphylococcus aureus due to the high prevalence of risk factors for S. aureus. Recent data on invasive S. aureus infections among Native Americans are limited. METHODS:Active population- and laboratory-based surveillance was conducted in 2016-2017 on the Navajo Nation to document the rate of invasive S. aureus. A case of invasive S.aureus infection was defined as a Native American individual with S. aureus isolated from a normally sterile body site whose reported community of residence was on or around the Navajo Nation. RESULTS:One hundred and fifty-nine cases of invasive S. aureus from 152 individuals were identified. The median age of cases was 56.3 years and 35% were female. Thirty-five percent of cases had community-acquired infections. Ninety-three percent of cases had underlying medical conditions, including diabetes (60%) and obesity (42%), 28% of cases had a documented prior S. aureus infection, and 33% were infected with methicillin-resistant S. aureus. The annual incidence of invasive S. aureus and of invasive methicillin-resistant S. aureus was 64.9/100,000 persons and 21.2/100,000 persons, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:This community has a high burden of invasive S. aureus infections. Further research is needed to identify prevention strategies and opportunities for intervention

Norovirus and sapovirus detected in cases and controls.

<p>Norovirus and sapovirus detected in cases and controls.</p

Sapovirus genotype distribution among cases and healthy controls.

<p>Sapovirus genotype distribution among cases and healthy controls.</p

Percent of enteric virus co-infections with norovirus or sapovirus.

<p>Percent of enteric virus co-infections with norovirus or sapovirus.</p

Nasopharyngeal Carriage and Transmission of <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i> in American Indian Households after a Decade of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Use

<div><p>Background</p><p>Young children played a major role in pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage, acquisition, and transmission in the era before pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use. Few studies document pneumococcal household dynamics in the routine-PCV7 era.</p><p>Methods</p><p>We investigated age-specific acquisition, household introduction, carriage clearance, and intra-household transmission in a prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in 300 American Indian households comprising 1,072 participants between March 2006 and March 2008.</p><p>Results</p><p>Pneumococcal acquisition rates were 2–6 times higher in children than adults. More household introductions of new pneumococcal strains were attributable to children <9 years than adults ≥17 years (p<0.001), and older children (2–8 years) than younger children (<2 years) (p<0.008). Compared to children <2 years, carriage clearance was more rapid in older children (2–4 years, HR_clearance 1.53 [95% CI: 1.22, 1.91]; 5–8 years, HR_clearance 1.71 [1.36, 2.15]) and adults (HR_clearance 1.75 [1.16, 2.64]). Exposure to serotype-specific carriage in older children (2–8 years) most consistently increased the odds of subsequently acquiring that serotype for other household members.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>In this community with a high burden of pneumococcal colonization and disease and routine PCV7 use, children (particularly older children 2–8 years) drive intra-household pneumococcal transmission: first, by acquiring, introducing, and harboring pneumococcus within the household, and then by transmitting acquired serotypes more efficiently than household members of other ages.</p></div