Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010-2050: Modelling Based on Demographics, Excess Mortality, and Interventions

The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800-14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%-88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions.Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India

Efficient Parameter-Estimating Algorithms for Symmetry-Motivated Models: Econometrics and Beyond

It is known that symmetry ideas can explain the empirical success of many non-linear models. This explanation makes these models theoretically justified and thus, more reliable. However, the models remain non-linear and thus, identification or the model\u27s parameters based on the observations remains a computationally expensive nonlinear optimization problem. In this paper, we show that symmetry ideas can not only help to select and justify a nonlinear model, they can also help us design computationally efficient almost-linear algorithms for identifying the model\u27s parameters

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Measurement of D-s(+) and D-s(*+) production in B meson decays and from continuum e(+)e(-) annihilation at √s=10.6 GeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APSNew measurements of Ds+ and Ds*+ meson production rates from B decays and from qq̅ continuum events near the Υ(4S) resonance are presented. Using 20.8 fb-1 of data on the Υ(4S) resonance and 2.6 fb-1 off-resonance, we find the inclusive branching fractions B(B⃗Ds+X)=(10.93±0.19±0.58±2.73)% and B(B⃗Ds*+X)=(7.9±0.8±0.7±2.0)%, where the first error is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the Ds+→φπ+ branching fraction uncertainty. The production cross sections σ(e+e-→Ds+X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=7.55±0.20±0.34pb and σ(e+e-→Ds*±X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=5.8±0.7±0.5pb are measured at center-of-mass energies about 40 MeV below the Υ(4S) mass. The branching fractions ΣB(B⃗Ds(*)+D(*))=(5.07±0.14±0.30±1.27)% and ΣB(B⃗Ds*+D(*))=(4.1±0.2±0.4±1.0)% are determined from the Ds(*)+ momentum spectra. The mass difference m(Ds+)-m(D+)=98.4±0.1±0.3MeV/c2 is also measured.This work was supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Swiss NSF, A. P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

The relationship between vitamin D status and muscle strength in young healthy adults from sunny climate countries currently living in the northeast of Scotland

Summary: The current study examined the relationship between vitamin D status and muscle strength in young healthy adults: residents (>6 months) and newcomers (0–3 months), originally from sunny climate countries but currently living in the northeast of Scotland. Our longitudinal data found a positive, albeit small, relationship between vitamin D status and knee extensor isometric strength.  Introduction: Vitamin D has been suggested to play a role in muscle health and function, but studies so far have been primarily in older populations for falls prevention and subsequent risk of fractures.  Methods: Vitamin D status was assessed in a healthy young adults from sunny climate countries (n = 71, aged 19–42 years) with 56% seen within 3 months of arriving in Aberdeen [newcomers; median (range) time living in the UK = 2 months (9–105 days)] and the remainder resident for >6 months [residents; 23 months (6–121 months)]. Participants attended visits every 3 months for 15 months. At each visit, fasted blood samples were collected for analysis of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], parathyroid hormone (PTH), carboxy-terminal collagen crosslinks (CTX) and N-terminal propeptide of type I collagen (P1NP). Maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) were performed for grip strength (both arms) and for maximal isometric strength of the knee extensors (right knee).  Results: There were small seasonal variations in 25(OH)D concentrations within the newcomers and residents, but no seasonal variation in bone turnover markers. There was a positive, albeit small, association between 25(OH)D and knee extensor maximal isometric strength. Mixed modelling predicted that for each 1 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D, peak torque would increase by 1 Nm (p = 0.04).  Conclusions: This study suggests that vitamin D may be important for muscle health in young adults migrating from sunnier climates to high latitudes, yet the potential effect is small

Cross-Reactive T Cells Are Involved in Rapid Clearance of 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus in Nonhuman Primates

In mouse models of influenza, T cells can confer broad protection against multiple viral subtypes when antibodies raised against a single subtype fail to do so. However, the role of T cells in protecting humans against influenza remains unclear. Here we employ a translational nonhuman primate model to show that cross-reactive T cell responses play an important role in early clearance of infection with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus (H1N1pdm). To “prime” cellular immunity, we first infected 5 rhesus macaques with a seasonal human H1N1 isolate. These animals made detectable cellular and antibody responses against the seasonal H1N1 isolate but had no neutralizing antibodies against H1N1pdm. Four months later, we challenged the 5 “primed” animals and 7 naive controls with H1N1pdm. In naive animals, CD8+ T cells with an activated phenotype (Ki-67+ CD38+) appeared in blood and lung 5–7 days post inoculation (p.i.) with H1N1pdm and reached peak magnitude 7–10 days p.i. In contrast, activated T cells were recruited to the lung as early as 2 days p.i. in “primed” animals, and reached peak frequencies in blood and lung 4–7 days p.i. Interferon (IFN)-γ Elispot and intracellular cytokine staining assays showed that the virus-specific response peaked earlier and reached a higher magnitude in “primed” animals than in naive animals. This response involved both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Strikingly, “primed” animals cleared H1N1pdm infection significantly earlier from the upper and lower respiratory tract than the naive animals did, and before the appearance of H1N1pdm-specific neutralizing antibodies. Together, our results suggest that cross-reactive T cell responses can mediate early clearance of an antigenically novel influenza virus in primates. Vaccines capable of inducing such cross-reactive T cells may help protect humans against severe disease caused by newly emerging pandemic influenza viruses

Mapping the Risk of Anaemia in Preschool-Age Children: The Contribution of Malnutrition, Malaria, and Helminth Infections in West Africa

Ricardo Soares Magalhães and colleagues used national cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys to map the distribution of anemia risk in preschool children in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Mali