Surface water temperature, salinity, and density changes in the northeast Atlantic during the last 45,000 years: Heinrich events, deep water formation, and climatic rebounds

We developed a new method to calculate sea surface salinities (SSS) and densities (SSD) from planktonic foraminiferal delta(18)O and sea surface temperatures (SST) as determined from planktonic foraminiferal species abundances. SST, SSS, and SSD records were calculated for the last 45,000 years for Biogeochemical Oceanic Flux Study (BOFS) cores 5K and 8K recovered from the northeast Atlantic. The strongest feature is the dramatic drop in all three parameters during the Heinrich ''ice-rafting'' events. We modelled the possibility of deepwater formation in the northeast Atlantic from the SSD records, by assuming that the surface waters at our sites cooled as they flowed further north. Comparison with modelled North Atlantic deepwater densities indicates that there could have been periods of deepwater formation between 45,000 and 30,000 C-14 years B.P. (interrupted by iceberg meltwater input of Heinrich event 3 and 4, at 27,000 and 38,000 C-14 years B.P.) and during the Holocene. No amount of cooling in the northeast Atlantic between 30,000 and 13,000 years could cause deep water to form, because of the low salinities resulting from the high meltwater inputs from icebergs. Our records indicate that after each Heinrich event there were periods of climatic rebound, with milder conditions persisting for up to 2000 years, as indicated by the presence of warmer and more saline water masses. After these warm periods conditions returned to average glacial levels. These short term cold and warm episodes in the northeast Atlantic ate superimposed on the general trend towards colder conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Heinrich event 1 appears to be unique as it occurs as insolation rose and was coeval with the initial melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. We propose that meltwater input of Heinrich event 1 significantly reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation reducing the heat exchange between the low and high latitudes, thus delaying deglaciation by about 1500 radiocarbon years (2000 calendar years)

An Investigation on Exchange Rate Exposure of Taiwan Plastic Industry

台灣由於國內市場規模較小，又缺乏天然資源，貿易依存度相當高。在此種環境下，外匯波動對於台灣產業之績效表現的影響當然無法輕忽。因此，我國學界有不少研究台灣企業匯率暴險之文獻。然而，過去匯率暴險領域的研究有兩點值得改進之處。首先，過去之文獻研究包含台灣之電子、鋼鐵、航運，甚至是金融業，卻遺漏了進出口貿易頻繁之塑膠產業；第二，過去從事外匯暴險之研究總是使用市場基礎法進行分析，只使用投資人的觀點去關心匯率波動對於企業股價之影響，卻不試著站在公司管理階層的立場去觀察匯率波動對於細部現金流量之影響。研究針對這兩點問題，同時使用市場基礎法與現金流量基礎法對於台灣上市上櫃塑膠產業之企業進行匯率暴險之研究。為了研究之完整性，又進一步找出可能影響企業匯率暴險之決定因子。證結果發現，針對21家台灣上市櫃塑膠產業之公司樣本，在市場基礎法下，90%的企業有顯著的匯率暴險，且暴險方向皆為正向；在現金流量基礎法下，42.86%的企業有顯著的匯率暴險，且長期下之匯率暴險較短期更為顯著。外，在匯率暴險決定因子之分析中，以市場基礎法得到之匯率暴險值與公司規模呈現顯著之正向關係，與衍生性商品避險變數呈現顯著之負向關係；然而，對速動比率、利息保障倍數比、法人持股比率三個變數之關係皆不顯著。研究或許可提供未來國內研究匯率暴險領域之學者一個更完整的分析架構與更實用的實證結果。Due to small domestic market size and lack of natural resources, Taiwan relies heavily on international trade activities. It’s absolutely out of question we can’t neglect the effect of exchange rate volatility on the profitability of businesses in Taiwan. Hence, there were lots of domestic literatures related to the exchange rate exposure and its determinants. Reviewing those theses, however, we found they leave two defects to be corrected. First, in the field of exchange rate exposure research, most industries which have high degrees of trade dependence were studied except for plastic industry. Second, most of past theses centered on stock price exposures to exchange rate volatility, which is what external investors really focus. However, what internal managers in companies care about are cash flow exposures instead of stock price exposures.o solve the problems mentioned above, we analyze the exchange rate exposures of firms in domestic plastic industry by the market-based method and the cash flow-based method. Further, we also researched the potential determinants of exchange rate exposures under the market-based method.mpirical results show that as to the 21 sample companies in this research, 90% of them exhibit significant and positive exchange rate exposures under the market-based method. Under cash flow-based method, 42.86% of them show significant exchange rate exposures, and more significant in the long run.esides, when analyzing the determinants of exchange rate exposures, the research results show significant, positive relationship between “exposure” and “firm size” as well as significant, negative relationship between “exposure” and “hedge with derivatives”. Unfortunately, when it comes to the determinants such as “quick ratio”, “interest rate coverage”, and “institutional investor ratio”, the results are all insignificant.his thesis may well provide the future domestic scholars studying exchange rate exposure a more complete analysis structure and more useful empirical results.第一章　緒論 1-1 研究背景與動機 1-2 研究目的 4-3 研究架構 5二章　文獻回顧 6-1 塑膠產業介紹與定義 6-2 匯率暴險相關文獻 9-2.1 匯率暴險的定義 9-2.2 匯率暴險衡量與因子探討之相關文獻 11三章　研究方法 16-1 研究假說 16-1.1 市場法匯率暴險估計部分 16-1.2 現金流量法匯率暴險估計部分 16-1.3 股價匯率暴露決定因子之研究部分 17-2 研究設計和模型 19-2.1 市場法匯率暴險估計部分 19-2.2 現金流量法匯率暴險估計部分 19-2.3 股價匯率暴露決定因子之研究部分 22-3 樣本選取和變數定義 23-3.1 市場法匯率暴險估計部分 23-3.2 現金流量法匯率暴險估計部分 23-3.3 股價匯率暴露決定因子之研究部分 24-4 資料來源 25四章　實證結果與分析 26-1 外匯暴險估計研究 26-1.1 市場法匯率暴險估計 26-1.2 現金流量法匯率暴險估計 31-2 外匯風險因子橫斷面分析 34-3 小結 39五章　結論與建議 40-1 結論 40-2 研究限制與建議 41考文獻 4