Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

Exponential Random Graph Modeling for Complex Brain Networks

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs), also known as p* models, have been utilized extensively in the social science literature to study complex networks and how their global structure depends on underlying structural components. However, the literature on their use in biological networks (especially brain networks) has remained sparse. Descriptive models based on a specific feature of the graph (clustering coefficient, degree distribution, etc.) have dominated connectivity research in neuroscience. Corresponding generative models have been developed to reproduce one of these features. However, the complexity inherent in whole-brain network data necessitates the development and use of tools that allow the systematic exploration of several features simultaneously and how they interact to form the global network architecture. ERGMs provide a statistically principled approach to the assessment of how a set of interacting local brain network features gives rise to the global structure. We illustrate the utility of ERGMs for modeling, analyzing, and simulating complex whole-brain networks with network data from normal subjects. We also provide a foundation for the selection of important local features through the implementation and assessment of three selection approaches: a traditional p-value based backward selection approach, an information criterion approach (AIC), and a graphical goodness of fit (GOF) approach. The graphical GOF approach serves as the best method given the scientific interest in being able to capture and reproduce the structure of fitted brain networks

A randomized study of home-based training intervention with telemonitoring guidance in coronary artery disease patients - (TRiCH) Study

Background: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is an essential part of coronary heart disease (CHD) management. However, patients exiting a center-based CR program have difficulty retaining its benefits. Objective: The purpose of the TRiCH study is to evaluate the added benefit of a home-based (HB) CR program with telemonitoring guidance on physical fitness in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) who are being discharged from a phase II ambulatory CR program, and to compare its effectiveness to a prolonged center-based (CB) CR intervention. Methods: Between February 2014 and August 2016, 90 CAD patients (61.2±7.6yrs, 89% males, 1.73±0.7m, 82.9±13kg, 27.5±3.4kg/m2) who successfully completed a three month ambulatory CR program were randomly allocated to one of three groups: HB (=30), CB (=30) or a control group (CG) (=30) on a 1:1:1 basis. HB patients received a home-based exercise intervention with telemonitoring guidance consisting of weekly emails or phone calls, CB patients continued the ambulatory-hospital CR and CG patients received usual care including the recommendation to remain physically active. All patients underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing to assess peak oxygen uptake (VO2P) at baseline and after the 12 week intervention period. Secondary outcomes included physical activity behavior, anthropometric characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors and quality of life. Results: The increase in VO2P was larger following 12 weeks of intervention in the CB group (P = .03) and HB group (P = .04) compared to the control group. In addition, oxygen uptake at the first ventilatory threshold (P-interaction = .03) and the second ventilatory threshold (P-interaction = .03) increased significantly more in the HB group compared to CB. No significant changes were found in the secondary outcomes. Conclusions: Adding a HB exercise program with telemonitoring guidance following completion of a phase II ambulatory CR program results in further improvement of physical fitness and is as equally effective as prolonging a CB CR in patients with coronary artery disease

Anti-Allergic Cromones Inhibit Histamine and Eicosanoid Release from Activated Human and Murine Mast Cells by Releasing Annexin A1

PMCID: PMC3601088This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Intermediate predator naïveté and sex-skewed vulnerability predict the impact of an invasive higher predator

The spread of invasive species continues to reduce biodiversity across all regions and habitat types globally. However, invader impact prediction can be nebulous, and approaches often fail to integrate coupled direct and indirect invader effects. Here, we examine the ecological impacts of an invasive higher predator on lower trophic groups, further developing methodologies to more holistically quantify invader impact. We employ functional response (FR, resource use under different densities) and prey switching experiments to examine the trait- and density-mediated impacts of the invasive mosquitofish Gambusia affinis on an endemic intermediate predator Lovenula raynerae (Copepoda). Lovenula raynerae effectively consumed larval mosquitoes, but was naïve to mosquitofish cues, with attack rates and handling times of the intermediate predator unaffected by mosquitofish cue-treated water. Mosquitofish did not switch between male and female prey, consistently displaying a strong preference for female copepods. We thus demonstrate a lack of risk-reduction activity in the presence of invasive fish by L. raynerae and, in turn, high susceptibility of such intermediate trophic groups to invader impact. Further, we show that mosquitofish demonstrate sex-skewed predator selectivity towards intermediate predators of mosquito larvae, which may affect predator population demographics and, perversely, increase disease vector proliferations. We advocate the utility of FRs and prey switching combined to holistically quantify invasive species impact potential on native organisms at multiple trophic levels

Wide-Scale Analysis of Human Functional Transcription Factor Binding Reveals a Strong Bias towards the Transcription Start Site

We introduce a novel method to screen the promoters of a set of genes with shared biological function, against a precompiled library of motifs, and find those motifs which are statistically over-represented in the gene set. The gene sets were obtained from the functional Gene Ontology (GO) classification; for each set and motif we optimized the sequence similarity score threshold, independently for every location window (measured with respect to the TSS), taking into account the location dependent nucleotide heterogeneity along the promoters of the target genes. We performed a high throughput analysis, searching the promoters (from 200bp downstream to 1000bp upstream the TSS), of more than 8000 human and 23,000 mouse genes, for 134 functional Gene Ontology classes and for 412 known DNA motifs. When combined with binding site and location conservation between human and mouse, the method identifies with high probability functional binding sites that regulate groups of biologically related genes. We found many location-sensitive functional binding events and showed that they clustered close to the TSS. Our method and findings were put to several experimental tests. By allowing a "flexible" threshold and combining our functional class and location specific search method with conservation between human and mouse, we are able to identify reliably functional TF binding sites. This is an essential step towards constructing regulatory networks and elucidating the design principles that govern transcriptional regulation of expression. The promoter region proximal to the TSS appears to be of central importance for regulation of transcription in human and mouse, just as it is in bacteria and yeast.Comment: 31 pages, including Supplementary Information and figure

Life time suicidal thoughts in an urban community in Hanoi, Vietnam

BACKGROUND: Suicidal thought is a risk factor and a stage in the suicidal process from planning to attempting and dying by suicide. To date, studies on suicidal thought in the general population, especially in Asian communities, have been limited. METHOD: The WHO SUPRE-MISS (the multisite intervention study on suicidal behaviours) community survey questionnaire was filled in for 2,280 randomly selected residents of the DongDa district of Hanoi, Vietnam by means of face-to-face interviews. This multi-factor questionnaire includes such variables as sociodemographic information, suicidal thought and history of suicide attempts, physical health, alcohol consumption and medication. RESULTS: Prevalence rates for life time suicidal thoughts, suicide plans and suicide attempts were 8.9%, 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. Suicidal thoughts are associated with multiple characteristics, such as female gender, single/widowed/separated/divorced marital status, low income, lifestyle (use of alcohol, sedatives and pain relief medication), but not with low education or employment status. Having no religion and being a Buddhist appear to be protective factors for suicidal thought. The ratio of suicidal thoughts, suicide plans and suicide attempts on a lifetime basis is 22.3:2.8:1. CONCLUSION: In Vietnam, as in Western and other Asian countries, suicidal thoughts are associated with similar negative psychosocial risk factors, lifestyle and emotional problems, which implies that suicide preventive measure developed elsewhere can be adjusted to Vietnamese condition. Understanding the unique and common risks in a culture may assist in prediction and control

Evaluation of an inter-professional workshop to develop a psychosocial assessment and child-centred communication training programme for paediatricians in training

BACKGROUND: The quality of psychosocial assessment of children in consultations varies widely. One reason for this difference is the variability in effective mental health and communication training at undergraduate and post-qualification levels. In recognition of this problem, the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health in the United Kingdom have developed the Child in Mind Project that aims to meet this deficit in medical training. This paper describes the evaluation of a workshop that explored the experiences and expectations of health care professionals in the development of a training programme for doctors. METHODS: The one-day inter-professional workshop was attended by 63 participants who were invited to complete evaluation forms before and immediately after the workshop. RESULTS: The results showed that the workshop was partially successful in providing an opportunity for an inter-professional group to exchange ideas and influence the development of a significant project. Exploring the content and process of the proposed training programme and the opportunity for participants to share experiences of effective practice were valued. Participants identified that the current culture within many health care settings would be an obstacle to successful implementation of a training programme. Working within existing training structures will be essential. Areas for improvement in the workshop included clearer statement of goals at the outset and a more suitable environment for the numbers of participants. CONCLUSIONS: The participants made a valuable contribution to the development of the training programme identifying specific challenges. Inter-professional collaborations are likely to result in more deliverable and relevant training programmes. Continued consultation with potential users of the programme – both trainers and trainees will be essential

C-Kit Binding Properties of Hesperidin (a Major Component of KMP6) as a Potential Anti-Allergic Agent

Accumulation of mast cells can be causally related to several allergic inflammations. Stem cell factor (SCF) as a mast cell chemotaxin induces mast cell migration. To clarify a new effect of Pyeongwee-San extract (KMP6, a drug for indigestion) for the treatment of allergy, we investigated the effects of KMP6 on SCF-induced migration of rat peritoneal mast cells (RPMCs). A molecular docking simulation showed that hesperidin, a major component of KMP6, controls the SCF and c-kit binding by interaction with the active site of the c-kit. KMP6 and hesperidin significantly inhibited SCF-induced migration of RPMCs (P<0.05). The ability of the SCF to enhance morphological alteration and F-actin formation was also abolished by treatment with KMP6 or hesperidin. KMP6 and hesperidin inhibited SCF-induced p38 MAPK activation. In addition, SCF-induced inflammatory cytokine production was significantly inhibited by treatment with KMP6 or hesperidin (P<0.05). Our results show for the first time that KMP6 potently regulates SCF-induced migration, p38 MAPK activation and inflammatory cytokines production through hindrance of SCF and c-kit binding in RPMCs. Such modulation may have functional consequences during KMP6 treatment, especially mast cell-mediated allergic inflammation disorders