Calendar time trends in the incidence and prevalence of triple-class virologic failure in antiretroviral drug-experienced people with HIV in Europe

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), virologic failure of the 3 original classes [triple-class virologic failure, (TCVF)] still develops in a small minority of patients who started therapy in the triple combination ART era. Trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF over calendar time have not been fully characterised in recent years. METHODS: Calendar time trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF from 2000 to 2009 were assessed in patients who started ART from January 1, 1998, and were followed within the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE). RESULTS: Of 91,764 patients followed for a median (interquartile range) of 4.1 (2.0-7.1) years, 2722 (3.0%) developed TCVF. The incidence of TCVF increased from 3.9 per 1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.7 to 4.1] in 2000 to 8.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 8.5 to 9.0) in 2005, but then declined to 5.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 5.6 to 6.1) by 2009. The prevalence of TCVF was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.27% to 0.42%) at December 31, 2000, and then increased to 2.4% (95% CI: 2.24% to 2.50%) by the end of 2005. However, since 2005, TCVF prevalence seems to have stabilized and has remained below 3%. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of TCVF in people who started ART after 1998 has stabilized since around 2005, which most likely results from the decline in incidence of TCVF from this date. The introduction of improved regimens and better overall HIV care is likely to have contributed to these trends. Despite this progress, calendar trends should continue to be monitored in the long term

Triple-class virologic failure in HIV-infected patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy for up to 10 years

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy of people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is now estimated to approach that of the general population in some successfully treated subgroups. However, to attain these life expectancies, viral suppression must be maintained for decades.METHODS: We studied the rate of triple-class virologic failure (TCVF) in patients within the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) that included a nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) from 1998 onwards. We also focused on TCVF in patients who started a PI/r-containing regimen after a first-line NNRTI-containing regimen failed.RESULTS: Of 45 937 patients followed up for a median (interquartile range) of 3.0 (1.5-5.0) years, 980 developed TCVF (2.1%). By 5 and 9 years after starting ART, an estimated 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1%-3.6%) and 8.6% (95% CI, 7.5%-9.8%) of patients, respectively, had developed TCVF. The incidence of TCVF rose during the first 3 to 4 years on ART but plateaued thereafter. There was no significant difference in the risk of TCVF according to whether the initial regimen was NNRTI or PI/r based (P = .11). By 5 years after starting a PI/r regimen as second-line therapy, 46% of patients had developed TCVF.CONCLUSIONS: The rate of virologic failure of the 3 original drug classes is low, but not negligible, and does not appear to diminish over time from starting ART. If this trend continues, many patients are likely to need newer drugs to maintain viral suppression. The rate of TCVF from the start of a PI/r regimen after NNRTI failure provides a comparator for studies of response to second-line regimens in resource-limited settings

Predictors of CD4+ T-Cell Counts of HIV Type 1-Infected Persons After Virologic Failure of All 3 Original Antiretroviral Drug Classes

Background. Low CD4(+) T-cell counts are the main factor leading to clinical progression in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. We aimed to investigate factors affecting CD4(+) T-cell counts after triple-class virological failure.Methods. We included individuals from the COHERE database who started antiretroviral therapy from 1998 onward and who experienced triple-class virological failure. CD4(+) T-cell counts obtained after triple-class virologic failure were analyzed using generalized estimating equations.Results. The analyses included 2424 individuals with a total of 23 922 CD4(+) T-cell count measurements. In adjusted models (excluding current viral load and year), CD4(+) T-cell counts were higher with regimens that included boosted protease inhibitors (increase, 22 cells/µL [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.9-41]; P = .017) or drugs from the new classes (increase, 39 cells/µL [95% CI, 15-62]; P = .001), compared with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens. These associations disappeared when current viral load and/or calendar year were included. Compared with viral levels of 5.5 log(10) copies/mL were associated with CD4(+) T-cell count decreases of 51, 84, 137, and 186 cells/µL, respectively (P < .001).Conclusions. The approximately linear inverse relationship between log(10) viral load and CD4(+) T-cell count indicates that there are likely immunologic benefits from lowering viral load even by modest amounts that do not lead to undetectable viral loads. This is important for patients with low CD4(+) T-cell counts and few drug options