A novel statistical decomposition of the historical change in global mean surface temperature

According to the characteristics of forced and unforced components to climate change, sophisticated statistical models were used to fit and separate multiple scale variations in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) series. These include a combined model of the multiple linear regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models to separate the contribution of both the anthropogenic forcing (including anthropogenic factors (GHGs, aerosol, land use, Ozone, etc) and the natural forcing (volcanic eruption and solar activities)) from internal variability in the GMST change series since the last part of the 19th century (which explains about 91.6% of the total variances). The multiple scale changes (inter-annual variation, inter-decadal variation, and multi-decadal variation) are then assessed for their periodic features in the remaining residuals of the combined model (internal variability explains the rest 8.4% of the total variances) using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Finally, the individual contributions of the anthropogenic factors are attributed using a partial least squares regression model

Reversal of Cancer Cachexia and Muscle Wasting by ActRIIB Antagonism Leads to Prolonged Survival

SummaryMuscle wasting and cachexia have long been postulated to be key determinants of cancer-related death, but there has been no direct experimental evidence to substantiate this hypothesis. Here, we show that in several cancer cachexia models, pharmacological blockade of ActRIIB pathway not only prevents further muscle wasting but also completely reverses prior loss of skeletal muscle and cancer-induced cardiac atrophy. This treatment dramatically prolongs survival, even of animals in which tumor growth is not inhibited and fat loss and production of proinflammatory cytokines are not reduced. ActRIIB pathway blockade abolished the activation of the ubiquitin-proteasome system and the induction of atrophy-specific ubiquitin ligases in muscles and also markedly stimulated muscle stem cell growth. These findings establish a crucial link between activation of the ActRIIB pathway and the development of cancer cachexia. Thus ActRIIB antagonism is a promising new approach for treating cancer cachexia, whose inhibition per se prolongs survival.PaperCli

An updated evaluation of the global mean land surface air temperature and surface temperature trends based on CLSAT and CMST

Past versions of global surface temperature (ST) datasets have been shown to have underestimated the recent warming trend over 1998–2012. This study uses a newly updated global land surface air temperature and a land and marine surface temperature dataset, referred to as China global land surface air temperature (C-LSAT) and China merged surface temperature (CMST), to estimate trends in the global mean ST (combining land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature anomalies) with the data uncertainties being taken into account. Comparing with existing datasets, the statistical significance of the global mean ST warming trend during the past century (1900–2017) remains unchanged, while the recent warming trend during the “hiatus” period (1998–012) increases obviously, which is statistically significant at 95% level when fitting uncertainty is considered as in previous studies (including IPCC AR5) and is significant at 90% level when both fitting and data uncertainties are considered. Our analysis shows that the global mean ST warming trends in this short period become closer among the newly developed global observational data (CMST), remotely sensed/Buoy network infilled datasets, and reanalysis data. Based on the new datasets, the warming trends of global mean land SAT as derived from C-LSAT 2.0 for the period of 1979–2019, 1951–2019, 1900–2019 and 1850–2019 were estimated to be 0.296, 0.219, 0.119 and 0.081 °C/decade, respectively. The warming trends of global mean ST as derived from CMST for the periods of 1998–2019, 1979–2019, 1951–2019 and 1900–2019 were estimated to be 0.195, 0.173, 0.145 and 0.091 °C/decade, respectively

The International Surface Pressure Databank version 2

The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is the world's largest collection of global surface and sea-level pressure observations. It was developed by extracting observations from established international archives, through international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, and directly by contributing universities, organizations, and countries. The dataset period is currently 1768–2012 and consists of three data components: observations from land stations, marine observing systems, and tropical cyclone best track pressure reports. Version 2 of the ISPD (ISPDv2) was created to be observational input for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and contains the quality control and assimilation feedback metadata from the 20CR. Since then, it has been used for various general climate and weather studies, and an updated version 3 (ISPDv3) has been used in the ERA-20C reanalysis in connection with the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations project (ERA-CLIM). The focus of this paper is on the ISPDv2 and the inclusion of the 20CR feedback metadata. The Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research provides data collection and access for the ISPDv2, and will provide access to future versions

Are greenhouse gas signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods

Identification of the Genes Involved in Riemerella anatipestifer Biofilm Formation by Random Transposon Mutagenesis

Riemerella anatipestifer causes epizootics of infectious disease in poultry that result in serious economic losses to the duck industry. Our previous studies have shown that some strains of R. anatipestifer can form a biofilm, and this may explain the intriguing persistence of R. anatipestifer on duck farms post infection. In this study we used strain CH3, a strong producer of biofilm, to construct a library of random Tn4351 transposon mutants in order to investigate the genetic basis of biofilm formation by R. anatipestifer on abiotic surfaces. A total of 2,520 mutants were obtained and 39 of them showed a reduction in biofilm formation of 47%–98% using crystal violet staining. Genetic characterization of the mutants led to the identification of 33 genes. Of these, 29 genes are associated with information storage and processing, as well as basic cellular processes and metabolism; the function of the other four genes is currently unknown. In addition, a mutant strain BF19, in which biofilm formation was reduced by 98% following insertion of the Tn4351 transposon at the dihydrodipicolinate synthase (dhdps) gene, was complemented with a shuttle plasmid pCP-dhdps. The complemented mutant strain was restored to give 92.6% of the biofilm formation of the wild-type strain CH3, which indicates that the dhdp gene is associated with biofilm formation. It is inferred that such complementation applies also to other mutant strains. Furthermore, some biological characteristics of biofilm-defective mutants were investigated, indicating that the genes deleted in the mutant strains function in the biofilm formation of R. anatipestifer. Deletion of either gene will stall the biofilm formation at a specific stage thus preventing further biofilm development. In addition, the tested biofilm-defective mutants had different adherence capacity to Vero cells. This study will help us to understand the molecular mechanisms of biofilm development by R. anatipestifer and to study the pathogenesis of R. anatipestifer further

IMILAST: a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases

Infection status and risk factors of HIV, HBV, HCV, and syphilis among drug users in Guangdong, China - a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>China has witnessed a remarkable increase in sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV. The study is to assess the prevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV and syphilis and related risk factors among drug users in mandatory detoxification center Qingyuan, Guangdong, China.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A cross-sectional study on drug use behaviors, sex behaviors, and presence of antibodies to HIV, HCV, Treponema pallidum, and surface antigen of HBV (HBsAg) was conducted among drug users recruited from 3 detoxification centers in Qingyuan, Guangdong, China. Risk factors for each of four infections were analyzed with logistic regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 740 subjects were recruited, the median age was 31 years old (range 24-38). The seroprevalence rates of HIV, HBsAg, HCV and syphilis were 4.6%, 19.3%, 71.6% and 12.6%, respectively. Risk factors for HIV were intravenous drug use and co-infection with syphilis. Having a regular sexual partner who was a drug user was considered to be a risk factor for HBV. Intravenous drug use was a risk factor for HCV. However, the consistent use of condoms with commercial sex partners was protective for HCV infection. Compared to drug users living in urban area, those living in rural areas were more likely to be infected with syphilis, and there was an association between commercial sex and syphilis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV and syphilis were high among drug users in detoxification centers in Qingyuan, thus, risk reduction programs for the drug user population is urgently required.</p